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Berliner Zeitung: Did a Putin-Trump deal topple Assad?

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The recent ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, following ten days of intense jihadist attacks, has triggered widespread speculation regarding the factors behind this rapid political collapse. Emerging analyses suggest that international political maneuvers may have played a decisive role in this unprecedented event.

Michael Maier, a journalist at the German daily Berliner Zeitung, provocatively asks: “Assad’s fall: A fiasco for Putin or collusion with Trump?” He contends that the swift jihadist takeover of Damascus represents “a clear defeat for Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

Maier asserts that if Russia was caught off guard by these developments, it marks a significant failure of Russian intelligence—on par with its missteps in 2014 during the Ukraine crisis. Citing The New York Times, Maier notes that the rebel offensive was months in the making, with meticulous planning preceding Assad’s ouster.

Maier draws parallels between Russia’s withdrawal of warships from Syria’s Tartous naval base and the chaotic American exit from Afghanistan. He highlights that the implications extend far beyond Syria:

China, reliant on the military strength of Russia and Iran to project influence in the Middle East, now faces a precarious regional situation.

Turkey and Israel emerge as key beneficiaries. Maier argues that both countries have militarily facilitated Assad’s fall and may now pursue territorial gains amidst Syria’s power vacuums.

Maier further points out the shocking ease with which rebel forces advanced to Damascus, seemingly unopposed, as the Syrian army “almost disappeared.” He notes, “Assad was in Moscow for a prolonged period before his downfall. It’s unclear if he ever returned to Syria.” The swift abandonment of previously hard-fought positions by Syrian, Russian, and Iranian forces over the past 13 years underscores the speed of this geopolitical shift.

A U.S.-Russia grand bargain?

Speculation about a possible “grand bargain” between Washington and Moscow is growing. Maier references recent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that America’s involvement in Syria should remain limited. However, the U.S. has simultaneously announced that 900 troops will stay in Syria to secure northeastern oil fields.

Maier posits that Russia might benefit from such a deal by redirecting its military focus to Ukraine, consolidating its territorial gains there, and achieving a more stable negotiating position. He suggests Assad’s overthrow could be part of a broader geopolitical trade-off, allowing Russia to maintain influence in Syria through military bases while opening a pathway to territorial concessions in Ukraine.

Hungary’s role

Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán has reportedly contributed to discussions surrounding this “grand bargain.” One potential outcome could involve the repatriation of Syrian refugees from Europe and Turkey, a move that would align with Orbán’s domestic and EU policies.

Maier also speculates that the agreement might curb the regional ambitions of Turkey’s Erdoğan and Israel’s Netanyahu, offering a degree of balance in the Middle East.

According to Maier, these developments could be part of a larger U.S. strategy to drive a wedge between Russia and China. He references U.S. journalist Tucker Carlson’s recent interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, where similar ideas were floated.

Regardless of the underlying motivations, Maier concludes, “Putin has some explaining to do to Chinese President Xi Jinping.”

Diplomacy

US approves missile sale to Türkiye exceeding $300 million

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The US State Department has approved the sale of advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAM) and Sidewinder missiles to Türkiye, totaling over $300 million.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), part of the Pentagon, submitted two separate notifications regarding this approval to Congress.

According to a written statement from DSCA, the first approved package includes 53 AIM-120C-8 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), valued at approximately $225 million, along with 6 AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM guidance sections for these missiles.

The second package approved by the department covers the sale of 60 AIM-9X Sidewinder Block II missiles, related logistics and program support elements, and 11 AIM-9X Block II Tactical guidance sections, totaling $79.1 million.

It was stated that the air-to-air missiles approved by the US administration could be used in various aerial missions, primarily by Türkiye’s F-16 fighter jets.

There is a 15-day objection period for the weapon sale approvals submitted to Congress.

If no objection is raised by members of Congress during this period, the weapon sale will officially take place.

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NATO plans largest defense spending increase since Cold War

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NATO countries have begun working on an agreement for the largest spending increase since the Cold War, with the goal of raising their defense expenditures to 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2032.

According to a Bloomberg report based on diplomats familiar with the matter, this proposal was first brought to the agenda by US President Donald Trump.

While alliance members aim to make progress on this issue before the summit in The Hague in June, the topic will be discussed at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Antalya, Türkiye, on May 14-15.

Currently, none of the 32 member countries, including the US, have reached the 5% target. In fact, eight countries have not even met the current recommended spending level of 2%.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called earlier this month for allies to agree to increase their defense spending to 3.5% of their GDP within the next seven years and to allocate an additional 1.5% for military-related needs.

Rutte stated that the aim of The Hague summit, which will be the first summit after Trump’s potential return to the White House, will be to balance spending within NATO.

According to 2024 data, the US accounts for 64% of the alliance’s total defense spending, while Europe and Canada’s share remained at 36%.

Ministers meeting in Antalya will discuss which expenditures will be included in the 1.5% bracket.

According to diplomats, this category could include items such as military mobility, dual-use goods, and cybersecurity.

However, it was emphasized that the talks are still in their initial stages. It remains uncertain whether this 1.5% portion will cover existing expenditures or require new commitments.

A senior Turkish official stated that even aid to Ukraine could be included in this category.

The main target of 3.5% is based on NATO’s new and ambitious defense plans. It has been learned that the alliance has already distributed documents to member governments containing detailed and top-secret lists of weapons and other capabilities.

These lists will be discussed by defense ministers in Brussels and confirmed at the summit in The Hague in June.

Rutte’s proposal also includes regular and strict monitoring of the steps taken to achieve the new targets.

A senior European diplomat said that achieving such a sharp increase in defense spending within the foreseen period would be a “major challenge.”

The same diplomat added that many members see these efforts as necessary to “send a clear message” to Russia.

Currently, the country closest to the proposed new spending target is Poland. Poland, which allocates 4.1% of its GDP to defense, plans to increase this ratio to 4.7% in 2025.

Poland is followed by the US with 3.7% and Estonia with 3.4%. Some alliance members, such as Italy and Spain, have recently announced that they have reached the 2% of GDP level.

According to sources, the remaining countries are expected to reach the same level by The Hague summit.

In addition to this spending issue, The Hague summit will also address topics such as increasing industrial production and reforming NATO’s internal governance to improve its overall efficiency.

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Ukraine peace negotiations begin in Türkiye without Putin and Trump

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Direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which have been interrupted for nearly three years, are set to begin today, Thursday, May 15, in Istanbul, with Türkiye acting as host.

It has been announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump will not be present at this critical meeting.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, arrived in Türkiye on Wednesday specifically for these discussions.

Details of Russia’s negotiating team announced

A statement from the Kremlin has indicated that the Russian delegation will be led by Presidential Advisor Vladimir Medinsky. The team will also include Deputy Defense Minister Aleksandr Fomin, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, and the Head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff, Igor Kostyukov.

Furthermore, it was mentioned that experts from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the General Staff, the Ministry of Defense, and the presidential administration are part of the delegation.

Among these specialists are Aleksandr Zorin, First Deputy Head of the Main Information Directorate of the General Staff; Yelena Podobreyevskaya, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration for State Policies in Humanitarian Areas; Aleksey Polishchuk, Head of the Second Department for CIS Countries of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and Viktor Shevtsov, Deputy Head of the Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of Defense.

While the Kremlin has not provided information regarding Putin’s personal participation in the talks, it has been learned that neither Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov nor Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov is included in the delegation.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned that Putin has a series of “working meetings” scheduled for the day of the peace talks.

Zelenskyy in Türkiye

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Türkiye yesterday. This visit comes despite his earlier statements that he would only travel to Istanbul for a personal meeting with Putin. According to information from Kyiv, President Zelenskyy is scheduled to hold a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday.

Sources from the Ukrainian television channel NV report that the Ukrainian delegation, alongside Zelenskyy, includes Andriy Yermak, Head of the Presidential Administration; Rustem Umerov, Defense Minister; Andriy Sybiha, Foreign Minister (who is already in Türkiye); and Ihor Zhovkva, Zelenskyy’s Diplomatic Advisor.

Trump’s non-attendance confirmed

It has now been confirmed that US President Donald Trump will also not be attending the talks. This decision follows Russian President Putin’s approval of his own delegation’s composition.

An American official familiar with the matter, speaking to Reuters, conveyed that Trump had previously considered interrupting his Middle East tour to participate in the discussions but ultimately decided against it.

Trump had previously stated he might attend the talks “to save lives,” contingent on Putin’s presence.

Nevertheless, three sources acquainted with diplomatic plans have reported that the US President’s special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, are expected to travel to Türkiye on Thursday.

On Sunday, Russian President Putin had proposed unconditional direct talks with Ukraine to be held in Istanbul.

President Zelenskyy, responding to this, emphasized that Ukraine is prepared for any negotiation format and is not shying away from discussions, remarking, “If Putin does not come to the meeting, it will look like a complete defeat for him.”

According to a report by the TASS agency, which cited a source familiar with the meeting’s organization, the talks were initially scheduled to commence at 10:00 AM local time at Dolmabahçe Palace. However, it has been reported that they have been postponed until the afternoon.

The negotiations are being conducted behind closed doors. It is noteworthy that Russia-Ukraine talks were previously held at the same venue in March 2022.

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