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Recognition diplomacy for TRNC begins with Turkic states

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Having struggled for recognition as an independent state for 39 years, the TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus) has crossed a significant threshold by becoming an observer member of the OTS (Organization of the Turkic States). “It is of great importance that a strong coalition is formed by intensive cooperation with the Turkic World and that the policy toward the recognition of the TRNC is actively put into practice,” says Prof. Hüseyin Işıksal.

Following the 2017 breakdown of the Crans Montana negotiations, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which has existed as an independent state despite all embargoes for 39 years, has based its policy on sovereign equality and equal international status. The TRNC’s unnamed recognition policy since 2017 was concretized by the address of President Tayyip Erdoğan to the UN Security Council (UN). With the TRNC’s admittance as an observer member of the OTS, a significant milestone was reached in the struggle being carried out in this context. Then, critical steps were taken. Following Gambia Vice President Badara Joof’s visit to the island to meet with TRNC President Ersin Tatar, a joint meeting between the ruling parties of Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and TRNC was held in Cyprus. Even though there is still a long way before Cyprus to go to be recognized as an independent state, patient and determined struggle is not alien to the Turkish Cypriots.

At a press conference on 19 December titled “Three States One Nation”, AK Party Deputy Chairman Numan Kurtulmuş (right), New Azerbaijan Party Deputy Chairman Tahir Budagov (left) and TRNC National Unity Party Secretary General Oğuzhan Hasipoğlu. PHOTO: Ali Ruhluel/AA

‘Doing the same thing and expecting different results is pointless’

International Relations and Diplomacy Special Advisor to the President of the TRNC, and Member of the Negotiation Committee, Prof. Hüseyin Işıksal talks to Harici about the roadmap to be followed by the TRNC in the diplomacy of recognition as well as the role that this new strategy will play in the ongoing conflict over the Eastern Mediterranean.

  • Do the efforts to be recognized as an independent state indicate that a new UN negotiation process based on the “one state” model of Turkiye and the TRNC is off the table? Or will the new recognition initiative be carried out in tandem with the UN negotiation process?

In the presidential candidacy declaration titled “A New Era, A New Vision” in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus elections held in October 2020, Ersin Tatar stated that any viable solution for Cyprus should be predicated on the presence of two sovereign and equal states. He appealed for the Turkish Cypriot people’s support, saying that a solution based on federation was exhausted at the time. By freely voting for Mr. Tatar as President, the Turkish Cypriot people have indicated their support for this vision-based approach.

The facts on the ground in Cyprus demonstrate that the Turkish and Greek people, who share a troubled history with power asymmetry and have different races, languages, religions, cultures, and lifestyles, would not be able to coexist peacefully under a federal solution. This reveals that a federal solution would be short-lived even if this is attempted through the use of a coerced treaty. In the words of Albert Einstein, ‘insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.’ The insistence on a federal solution by the Greek Cypriot side will waste time and perpetuate the status quo, which harms all parties. It is now apparent which model cannot be applied in Cyprus.

In this context, the negotiation committee headed by TRNC President Ersin Tatar, of which I am a part, presented new solution proposals to the United Nations at the 5+UN informal negotiations held in Geneva on 27-29 April 2021. Accordingly, the committee proposed that a fair, realistic, and sustainable agreement honoring the Turkish Cypriot people’s long-devoted struggle for existence and statehood can only be reached by a collaboration of two states with sovereign equity and equal international status. The Turkish Cypriot side has always stated that formal negotiations can only begin on condition that the Turkish Cypriot people’s vested sovereign equity and equal international status have been confirmed. As things stand, compromising our statehood in no way will we confidently continue along this path open to reconciliation and cooperation.

‘No letup in the pace of struggle’

  • The TRNC has taken a significant step forward with its admittance to the OTS as an observer member. How will the following step be carried out? Is there a roadmap for this new recognition diplomacy?

President Tayyip Erdoğan’s historic call at the 77th General Assembly of the United Nations address to all world leaders for the formal recognition of the TRNC is crucial. It marks a new landmark in the history of the Turkish Cypriot people. By making this call, Mr. Erdogan has done more than merely protect the Turkish Cypriots and their legitimate independence; he has also become their voice at the United Nations, where they are not allowed to be represented.

Soon after this call, at the 9th Organization of the Turkic States Leaders’ Summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, our state was unanimously admitted as an observer member for the first time under its constitutional name, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. It is a historical step toward international recognition. From this moment forward, we will no longer be subjected to procedures that would keep us in the status of minority.

Compared to many globally recognized states, fulfilling all the conditions of statehood with its full-fledged institutions and organizations, the TRNC is much more socio-economically and politically advanced. The TRNC is slowly yet gradually gaining acceptance from the international community. These days when we celebrate the 39th anniversary of our Republic, we will not rest on our laurels and continue our noble struggle with the tremendous momentum that this positive development encourages. It is of great importance to form a solid cooperation under the leadership of Turkiye with the Turkic world sharing the same values with the TRNC and to vigorously implement the policy for the recognition of the TRNC. The decision of the Organization of Turkic States to admit the TRNC as an observer member will also help to eliminate the unfair imbalance of status in Cyprus and ensure a just reconciliation based on sovereign equality on the island.

‘Geopolitical equation may shift in the Eastern Mediterranean’

  • Is the current polarization in the Eastern Mediterranean to be affected by Turkiye’s “normalization” measures towards Egypt? How do you see the situation developing in that part of the world?

If Turkiye’s “normalization” efforts toward Egypt pan out, we can expect the geopolitical equation in the Eastern Mediterranean to shift dramatically. Recently discovered hydrocarbon reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean have opened up new possibilities for regional collaboration. However, the maximalist demands and ambitions of the Cypriot Greek and Greek sides have had a disastrous economic impact on other coastal European and Mediterranean states. Should the maritime zone issues in the Eastern Mediterranean be settled fairly, the region will face even more significant political challenges. Such a great upheaval will benefit no party.

The main challenge here is that Turkiye, which has the longest coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean and is barely 70 km away from the island of Cyprus, is being attempted to be left out of the political equation in the region. Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration’s (GCA) primary foreign policy move is to immediately appeal to and forge an alliance with a country whenever it has a problem, no matter how negligible, with Turkiye. Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration mainly intend to confine Turkiye to the Gulf of Antalya by reducing Turkiye’s Exclusive Economic Zone by 3.5 times with the so-called Sevilla map they have created. All regional states, particularly Israel and Egypt, will benefit significantly if they sign maritime authorization agreements with Turkiye. I believe that the ‘containment’ strategy of the Greek-Cypriot Greek duo will fail, and the geopolitical equation in the Eastern Mediterranean may entirely change with the new strategic relations Turkiye has established with the regional countries.

DIPLOMACY

Blinken will travel to China amid concerns of global issues

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Ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China, US officials have adopted the tactic of expressing strong concern over China’s support for Russia and the Taiwan issue to put pressure on Beijing. Chinese observers, however, said that the recent frequent visits to China by Blinken and a number of US officials show that Washington cannot solve domestic and global problems without China’s cooperation.

Blinken will meet with senior Chinese officials in both Shanghai and Beijing during his 24-26 April visit, CNN reported on Saturday, citing a senior US State Department official.

Blinken will discuss “a range of bilateral, regional and global issues,” including the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the US State Department said on Saturday.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Blinken would also discuss progress in “resuming counternarcotics cooperation, military-to-military communications, artificial intelligence, and strengthening people-to-people ties” and reaffirm the importance for the United States and China to “responsibly manage competition, even in areas where our countries disagree,” according to media reports.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian welcomed Blinken’s visit at a press briefing on Thursday, but gave no further details.

Tensions remain

Although Sino-US relations have stabilised somewhat since the two leaders met in San Francisco last year, tensions remain. During Blinken’s visit to China, the Philippines and the US will hold the largest Balikatan exercise to date in an area that includes waters China recognises as its sovereign territory. Washington also deployed the Typhon medium-range surface-to-surface missile launcher in the region for the first time, despite Beijing’s objections. China reacted to the deployment of the system and the exercise, which came very close to it.

The trilateral and bilateral summits of the US, Japan and the Philippines at the White House in mid-April targeted China’s influence in the region while taking historic decisions on trilateral military and defence cooperation. Beijing sees the expansion of the US military and intelligence presence in the region through its Asian allies as an attempt to “contain” it, while Washington opposes it.

Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday that the purpose of Blinken’s visit was to implement the consensus of the two leaders, but given the so-called focus points announced by the US administration, it is possible that the visit will widen differences and create more negative factors.

Lü cited as an example the annual joint military exercises between Philippine and US forces, which are believed to be aimed at China.

During his visit, Blinken will also reportedly ask Beijing to refrain from “provocative” actions during next month’s swearing-in ceremony for Lai Ching-te, who was elected Taiwan’s regional leader in January, AFP quoted a US official as saying.

Chinese experts say the Biden administration is trying to “show some teeth” on global issues because of the upcoming US presidential election, but also because Biden wants to stabilise relations with China to avoid possible incidents that could harm his election chances.

Aid package for Ukraine

CNN quoted a US State Department official as saying on Saturday that Blinken plans to “reiterate our deep concerns about the PRC’s support for Russia’s defence industrial base, as well as its human rights abuses and unfair economic and trade practices”.

The US House of Representatives on Saturday approved billions of dollars in new US military aid to Ukraine. The foreign aid package passed on Saturday also includes military support for Israel and funding for allies in the Asia-Pacific region, including the island of Taiwan.

According to Chinese experts, after overcoming the obstacles to sending aid to Ukraine, Washington will inevitably focus on blocking China’s trade with Russia. China will face a new challenge from the United States in defending its sovereignty in foreign trade, they said, while Washington should be aware that it has few tools to pressure China on this issue.

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DIPLOMACY

US agrees to pull troops out of Niger

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The United States is withdrawing its troops from Niger at the request of the government that took power after a military coup.

According to local media reports, the decision to withdraw troops came after talks in Washington between US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and Niger’s Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine. News reports said the US had agreed to close the unmanned aerial vehicle base.

The US, which has around 1,100 troops in Niger, continues to operate from two bases. The most important of these is the $100 million Niger Air Base 201, located near the city of Agadez at the southern end of the Sahara.

A US delegation is expected to travel to Niger’s capital, Niamey, in the next few days to ensure an orderly withdrawal of troops.

Senior US officials travelled to Niger last month to try to ensure that the US would maintain its base in the country despite the suspension of military and development aid to Niger’s coup government. But after three days of waiting, the US delegation left without meeting the country’s military commander, General Abdurrahmane Tchiani, and a day later Niger announced the end of the military partnership Washington had come to secure.

In Niger, President Mohammed Bazum was arrested by elements of the presidential guard regiment on 26 July 2023, and the military announced the seizure of power that evening. General Abdurrahmane Tchiani, commander of the presidential guard regiment, became head of the transitional government, called the National Council for the Protection of the Homeland (CNSP). The CNSP appointed Lamine Zeine as Prime Minister and formed a 21-member cabinet of military and civilians.

After announcing the end of security ties with Washington, Niamey hosted a delegation of Chinese oil executives interested in expanding mining operations in the country, met directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin to strengthen security ties, and welcomed dozens of Russian military trainers and an advanced air defence system. Niger hosted the Iranian ambassador to finalise the establishment of official diplomatic relations with Tehran, which is reportedly keen to invest in the country’s uranium sector.

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DIPLOMACY

US approves $95bn in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan

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The US House of Representatives on Saturday approved $61 billion in new aid for Ukraine, ending a six-month political impasse.

The aid to Ukraine will be combined with aid to Israel and Taiwan for a total foreign aid package of $95 billion.

House Speaker Mike Johnson worked with Democrats and overcame fierce opposition to Ukraine funding within his own party to pass the legislation by a vote of 311 to 112.

“We did our job here, and history will judge us kindly,” Johnson said after the vote.

The Senate is expected to pass the package negotiated with the White House this week. Senate Democrats and Republicans have agreed to take up the package, starting with procedural votes on Tuesday, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement.

Congratulations from Zelenski

The vote represents a victory for Republican ‘defence hawks’ over the more isolationist wing of the party led by Donald Trump. Nevertheless, more Republicans voted against further aid to Ukraine than for it.

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican, said: “We can’t be afraid of our shadows. We have to be strong. We have to do the right thing,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky celebrated the vote on social media platform X, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the new aid.

Democrats and some Republicans waved Ukrainian flags during the vote.

Russia to retaliate against seizure of Russian assets

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said: ‘Traditional Republicans, led by House Ways and Means Chairman Mike Johnson, went along with this. We have a responsibility to resist authoritarianism,” he said.

Earlier on Saturday, the House also passed an $8 billion aid package for Taiwan. The House also passed a bill that would force Chinese-controlled ByteDance to divest from the popular social media app TikTok or face a US ban.

The bill also authorises the seizure of Russian assets to fund aid to Ukraine. Russia will retaliate against the seizure of its assets, the TASS news agency quoted Peskov as saying.

The Senate is due to start voting on the combined package on Tuesday.

Trump’s ‘loan to Ukraine’ proposal to be implemented

The $61 billion Ukraine bill includes $13 billion to replenish Ukraine’s stockpile of US weapons and $14 billion for US defence systems for Ukraine.

It also provides $7 billion for US military operations in the region.

The bill’s $9.5 billion in economic aid to Ukraine comes in the form of a loan that the president can cancel in full after the next election. The idea for the loan was first put forward by Donald Trump.

4 billion in missile aid to Israel

The aid bill for Taiwan includes $2 billion in foreign military financing for Taiwan and $1.9 billion to replenish US arms stocks to cover goods and services provided to Taiwan. It also provides $3.3 billion for undersea infrastructure development.

The aid bill for Israel, passed by 366 votes to 58, includes $4 billion for Israel’s missile defence following last weekend’s drone and rocket attacks by Iran. At the insistence of Democrats, the bill includes $9 billion in global humanitarian aid to be used in Gaza.

Johnson ignored calls from ultra-conservatives within the party to include the ‘US Border Act’.

President Joe Biden welcomed the House vote, thanking Johnson, Jeffries and the lawmakers who ‘voted to put our national security first’.

Conservative Republicans mobilise against Johnson

Three conservative representatives, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Paul Gosar of Arizona, say they are prepared to vote to remove Johnson from office.

“Nothing is being done to secure our border or pay down our debt. Ukraine is not even in NATO,” he said.

Massie also said on Saturday that he hoped the growing Republican opposition would force Johnson to resign. “If it comes to that, there will be a vote to remove Johnson,” he said.

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