The US administration is working on a post-war strategy focused on containing Iran and expanding the normalisation of relations between Israel and its neighbours.

According to Axios, although the plan remains in the draft stage, it is intended to guide the US approach to the Middle East once the war with Iran concludes and across the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term in office.

Two major events cast a shadow over the planning process: the Israeli elections scheduled for 27 October and the US midterm elections in November.

US officials state that initial work on the strategy is being conducted both at senior political levels within the Trump administration and at an interagency working level.

According to sources, Trump has held two meetings with senior advisers in recent weeks where the plan was discussed and concepts were floated.

In private conversations, Trump reportedly said he is working on “something much bigger” in the Middle East following the war with Iran.

According to sources, three primary elements have been put forward as prospective components of the strategy:

Establishing a regional alliance among US allies, guaranteed by the US, in order to contain Iran.

Pursuing a joint effort to bring the regional fallout of the 7 October 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood operation toward a conclusion by securing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, signing a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement.

Expanding the Abraham Accords and reaching a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The Trump administration hopes that the new Israeli government formed after the 27 October elections will be willing and able to cooperate on the post-war strategy.

However, some US officials emphasise that Trump will push for the implementation of this strategy regardless of the Israeli election results, even if the vote leads to political deadlock.

A source familiar with the process stated that drafting the strategy would take several more weeks. “They are working on it, but it is not finished yet,” the source said, adding:

“The aim here is to connect many moving parts in the region; how to build a regional alliance after the war. It is not yet clear whether all US allies in the region will participate in this process.”

US military drones commenced reconnaissance flights over the Al-Miskad mountains in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region shortly after sunset on 3 September.

Speaking to news outlet Drop Site, Puntland security officials said surveillance targeted the Togga Miraale and Togga Baalade areas, identified by local authorities as strongholds of Islamic State militants.

Officials reported that the drones identified suspected Islamic State fighters travelling by donkey cart in the Togga Baalade area, prompting airstrikes at around 20:30.

Conducted concurrently with reconnaissance operations over the Al-Madow mountains in the Sanaag region, where Al-Shabaab maintains a presence, the operation concluded a period of relative calm in US strikes across Somalia.

US Africa Command (AFRICOM), which oversees US military operations in Somalia, did not respond to requests for comment. However, Puntland security officials noted that they expect US air operations in the country to intensify further in the foreseeable future.

At the centre of this military expansion lies a new US military base planned for the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso, which was announced last month.

While local officials maintain that US air support is indispensable in combatting the Islamic State, American operations across the region have drawn criticism over the deaths and displacement of thousands of civilians.

Situated on the Gulf of Aden, through which roughly 25% of global maritime traffic passes, Bosaso has a population of 1 million and serves as a critical human smuggling corridor for East African migrants moving towards Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula.

The area is emerging as the focal point of a US initiative to militarise one of the world’s most strategic maritime routes. On land, intense combat between US-backed Puntland regional forces and Islamic State militants has continued in the Al-Miskad mountains for nearly two years.

The US administration characterises the arid, mountainous terrain of northern Somalia as the central hub from which the Islamic State directs its global operations.

Security sources in Puntland stated that Washington is de facto expanding its military footprint by constructing a new base in Bosaso, which will be utilised directly for combat, reconnaissance, and maritime security operations.

Officials emphasised that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) would also expand its regional footprint.

Agreement signed behind closed doors

An AFRICOM delegation headed by special operations commander Major General Claude Tudor met Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni in Bosaso on 2 August.

Following the meeting, the presidency of the semi-autonomous region, which is nominally subordinate to the central government in Mogadishu, announced in an official communiqué that a new memorandum of understanding had been reached.

The statement noted that the US would expand its military base in Bosaso to enhance counter-terrorism operations and safeguard maritime security.

However, five separate Puntland security officials who spoke to Drop Site argued that the official announcement distorted the true nature of the agreement.

Noting that the US had never previously possessed a military base in Bosaso, officials stated that the existing presence consisted solely of an “office” operated as an intelligence centre by AFRICOM and the CIA. Under the new project, a military installation will be established in the region from scratch.

Under current arrangements, AFRICOM personnel stationed at the Bosaso office provide liaison between Puntland ground forces and the command’s primary headquarters in neighbouring Djibouti whenever air support is required.

Officials noted that once the new base being built on the grounds of Bosaso Airport is completed, the US will conduct airstrikes and combat sorties directly from the city.

Security sources said most Somali delegation members photographed at the 2 August signing ceremony were unaware of the agreement’s details, explaining that the outline of the accord had been finalised during a secret meeting between Deni and the AFRICOM delegation in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, on 27 July.

“The Americans walked into the room, pulled out the draft, and the text was signed by Deni. Everything had already been cooked up in Addis Ababa,” one official said.

The CIA as “Big Brother” and covert transfers

US airstrikes in Somalia reached record levels under Donald Trump. Having ordered an operation against a senior Islamic State target in Somalia shortly after taking office, the Trump administration conducted 205 airstrikes in the country, according to data compiled by think tank New America. Direct hits on Islamic State targets accounted for 53% of those operations.

The Islamic State network in Somalia was formed in 2015 when British-Somali cleric Abdiqadir Mumin and affiliated militants broke away from Al-Shabaab to pledge allegiance to the group.

After holding the Gulf of Aden coastal town of Qandala for 38 days in 2016, the group retreated into the Al-Miskad mountains. Over time, it evolved into an organisation in which foreign fighters, primarily from Ethiopia and other regional states, formed the majority.

Puntland security officials stated that CIA personnel in Bosaso interrogate captured high-ranking foreign Islamic State operatives and exert unquestioned authority over decisions, acting like a “big brother”.

Officials said Abdiweli Mohamed Yusuf (Abdiweli Walalac), the financial chief of the group’s Somali wing who was placed under sanctions by the US Department of the Treasury in 2019, was interrogated at this office following his capture and covertly transferred to Djibouti the next day.

Concealing himself among local Bedouins in the rural Xumbeys area of the Bari region, Abdiweli was captured on 25 July last year in a helicopter raid conducted by the Puntland Intelligence and Security Agency (PISA) alongside US elements.

Officials stressed that the operation, previously presented to the public as “US-backed”, was directly controlled on the ground by American forces, with air cover also provided personally by the US.

New local strike force under formation

It has emerged that the Bosaso agreement is not limited to air operations, but also provides for the US to establish a new local strike force to conduct counter-terrorism missions in the region.

Although troop numbers have not yet been finalised, the force’s salaries, equipment, and military training will be entirely funded by the US.

Washington has pursued similar military structures in Somalia in the past. Established after 11 September, the Puntland Security Force (PSF), which saw US support cut in 2020, faced accusations of involvement in civilian casualties and clashes within populated settlements. Under Barack Obama, “Danab” (Lightning), an elite unit established to fight Al-Shabaab across southern and central Somalia, was equipped directly by the US.

During an 18-month offensive across the Al-Miskad mountains in Bari province, the group was reportedly pushed back significantly, with at least two-thirds of slain militants killed directly in US airstrikes.

Nevertheless, local sources reported that Islamic State pockets persist in the rugged mountain terrain, which they compared to Afghanistan’s “Tora Bora”, while displaced civilians remain unable to return to their villages because of bombings and looting.

Base construction in Bosaso also raises grave constitutional disputes under Somali law. Under the Somali constitution, the authority to conclude military agreements with foreign states rests exclusively with the federal central government in Mogadishu.

The Somali Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Information did not respond to questions regarding whether they were briefed in advance on the military accord signed between the Puntland administration and the US.

Pope Francis accused Opus Dei of employing “mafia tactics” during his conflict with the organisation over the Sanctuary of Torreciudad.

In two previously unpublished handwritten letters, Francis expressed support for the Bishop of Barbastro-Monzon, Angel Perez Pueyo, telling him, “Do not give up.”

The first letter was written at a time when relations between the diocese and Opus Dei were undergoing a negotiation phase regarding the legal future of Torreciudad.

Following that initial letter, dated 13 July, he wrote another letter on 13 October 2024, warning the bishop about “ongoing mafia intrigues” surrounding the conflict.

The documents reveal the direct involvement of the pope in a dispute that has lasted for years, pitting the diocese of Huesca against the organisation founded by Saint Josemaria Escriva.

The contents of the letters also provide new details regarding Francis’s position on the disagreements between both sides and his relationship with Perez Pueyo during the most sensitive moments of the confrontation.

The existence of this correspondence is particularly significant because Francis died in April 2025, and the Torreciudad dispute has still not reached a definitive resolution under Pope Leo XIV.

The publication of the documents gives Leo the opportunity to learn first-hand the principles that his predecessor Francis adopted regarding this case.

A personal meeting also took place between the two exchanges of correspondence. On 18 September 2024, Perez Pueyo met Francis in Saint Peter’s Square, and according to the bishop’s own account, the pope once again asked him about the situation regarding the statue of the Virgin of Torreciudad.

One of the main focal points of the dispute is the Romanesque statue of the Virgin of the Angels at Torreciudad.

While the diocese maintains that the statue must return to its original hermitage, Opus Dei takes a different position regarding the legal status of the statue and the religious complex.

The dispute dates back to differences of opinion that emerged in 2020 regarding the future of Torreciudad.

In 2023, Opus Dei submitted a proposal to update the legal and pastoral framework of the sanctuary, but the talks failed to produce an agreement acceptable to both sides.

Opus Dei contends that an agreement signed in 1962 granted usufruct rights over the hermitage to a civil entity through a long-term lease, and subsequently explains that the organisation assumed responsibility for worship and maintenance at the site.

The diocese, however, offers a different interpretation of the statue’s current status and demands its restitution.

The pope’s stance on the matter acquired an institutional dimension in October 2024, when Francis appointed Archbishop Alejandro Arellano as extraordinary commissioner for Torreciudad.

The cleric, who serves as dean of the Tribunal of the Roman Rota, was tasked with intervening in the management of the dispute and finding a solution.

Meanwhile, the debate flared up again at the end of last month. On 31 August, the Bishop of Barbastro-Monzon, Angel Javier Perez Pueyo, escalated the conflict to a new level by publicly announcing that he would place his office at the disposal of the Holy See if a potential agreement required him to accept the permanent removal of the original statue of the Virgin of Torreciudad from the historic hermitage.

His threat of “resignation” also pushes Pope Leo XIV, who inherited this unresolved matter from Pope Francis, to take a public stand.

The question Rome now confronts is how to resolve this conflict—involving a diocese, a personal prelature affiliated with the Catholic Church, and a sanctuary of international spiritual importance—without allowing the dispute itself to overshadow the religious purpose of the site.

Francis had made a dedicated effort to rein in Opus Dei. In 2022, the pope placed the organisation under the Dicastery for the Clergy, requiring it to report its activities to that department. He later went further, stripping Opus Dei of the “personal prelature” status it had held since 1982.