Diplomacy
NATO summit focuses on arms race in the Silicon Valley age
The NATO summit in The Hague begins today, June 24, with a large-scale meeting attended by numerous defense ministers, defense experts, and representatives from the arms industry.
According to the alliance’s statement, the NATO Defence Industrial Forum aims to assist NATO countries in a quantitative rearmament “at an unprecedented pace” and to make the latest technologies more useful in future wars.
Israel’s attacks on Iran, where artificial intelligence (AI) technology is being used more extensively than ever, are currently setting the standard for military technology. According to reports, the Israeli armed forces are integrating “air, cyber, and ground operations,” primarily with the help of AI, to coordinate “drone swarms, clandestine networks, and sabotage missions in real time.”
While the US is also rapidly advancing the integration of AI into its defense, German startups are achieving success in producing AI-controlled unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Among these is the defense startup Helsing, which is considered Germany’s most valuable startup, surpassing even civilian companies.
Ukraine as a testing ground
At this year’s Defence Industrial Forum, NATO is drawing conclusions from experiences showing that wars are largely decided by the defense industry capacities of the warring parties.
For example, according to Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren’s State Secretary, Christophe van der Maat, the war in Ukraine has become a “war between industries.” Van der Maat’s ministry is organizing the forum jointly with NATO and in cooperation with the industry association VNO-NCW and the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
It is emphasized that those who can produce large quantities of military equipment, and do so quickly, have a decisive advantage. More than 400 participants, including defense ministers, defense experts, and particularly representatives of the defense industry, have been invited to the forum.
According to pre-meeting statements, discussions will focus on “expanding and intensifying arms production at an unprecedented pace.” In addition to quantitative increases, the meeting will address financing options and how the latest technologies, “including autonomous systems,” can be used in warfare.
AI warfare: The examples of Azerbaijan and Ukraine
A look at reports on the Israeli armed forces’ operations in the conflict with Iran provides insight into how the latest technologies are being employed. The use of UAVs is not new, but the turning point for drone warfare occurred in 2020 during the Azerbaijan-Armenia war. UAVs are now playing a crucial role in the war in Ukraine.
The widespread use of artificial intelligence has also come into play in the conflict with Iran. According to an analysis by Al-Monitor, AI-based warfare has taken center stage for the first time. An expert from the Washington-based Middle East Institute (MEI) stated that Israel is using AI to integrate “air, cyber, and ground operations, coordinating drone swarms, stealth jets, and sabotage missions in real time.”
AI-based cyberattacks and electronic warfare have also made it possible to neutralize Iran’s air defenses. The MEI expert cites a prime example: Mossad established a secret drone base near Tehran, from which Tel Aviv launched AI-controlled attacks. Israel is also reportedly using civilian vehicles equipped with explosives as offensive weapons in Iranian cities, guided by AI.
Silicon Valley’s growing influence in NATO
In the US, the current administration continues the policy of shifting towards high-tech warfare with various tools, including artificial intelligence. The military budget, which already accounts for more than a third of global military spending, has been increased by 13.4% to $1.01 trillion.
Simultaneously, resources and capabilities are being shifted from the five traditional US defense companies (General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing) to startups in the artificial intelligence and aerospace industries. An example of this is the “Golden Dome” project, a continental missile defense system modeled on Israel’s Iron Dome. Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Starlink companies, along with young tech firms like Palantir and Anduril, hope to secure major contracts from this project.
Despite Elon Musk’s official withdrawal from government advisory roles, technology companies from Silicon Valley remain strongly represented in the administration in terms of personnel. For instance, employees of Palantir CEO Alex Karp hold influential positions in the State Department and the Pentagon. According to reports, there is now “a new tone” at the US Department of Defense, which is causing “near euphoria” among “startups and tech companies on the US West Coast.”
Germany’s most expensive startup
Although the German Armed Forces are far from achieving similar success, the first signs of progress are emerging in efforts to establish high-tech startups in the German defense industry, similar to those in the US.
Currently, Germany’s most valuable startup is Munich-based Helsing. The company’s co-founder, Gundbert Scherf, was once sent by McKinsey to serve as Federal Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen’s “Commissioner for Strategic Arms Control.” Helsing made a name for itself by producing kamikaze drones for Ukraine that are controlled with the help of artificial intelligence and cannot be stopped by jammers. Recently, it has been reported that Ukrainian soldiers consider Helsing drones to be too expensive and of lower quality compared to some competing models.
Nevertheless, Helsing is in talks to supply equipment for a “drone wall” planned for NATO’s eastern flank. Besides drones, the company primarily develops artificial intelligence for fighter jets, submarines, and tanks, which will enable these vehicles to be used more efficiently in the future. Valued at €12 billion, Helsing is currently Germany’s most expensive startup and is preparing to equip Eurofighter jets for electronic warfare in collaboration with the Swedish company Saab.
German AI efforts focus on Ukraine
In addition to the AI and drone company Helsing, Quantum Systems, a drone manufacturer based in Gilching near Munich, is also on the rise. Quantum Systems was founded in 2015 by former German Armed Forces officer Florian Seibel. The company produces not only for the German military but also for Ukraine.
It will also work closely with Airbus Defence in the future. A letter of intent regarding this collaboration was recently signed at the Paris Air Show at Le Bourget Airport. According to the letter, Quantum Systems will participate in the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project, a sixth-generation fighter jet that will work in conjunction with drones and drone swarms. To date, Quantum Systems has been financed with €40 million from Airbus Defence.
Pentagon-linked capital flows to Europe
While Helsing and Quantum Systems are German companies, Rheinmetall is collaborating in the drone and AI sector with the American company Anduril, which is partly financed by the renowned US tech billionaire Peter Thiel. Last week, Rheinmetall and Anduril signed a strategic partnership agreement to produce military drones.
According to a statement from Anduril, the partnership focuses on developing three proven capabilities, with the aim of expanding over time: integrating a European version of Barracuda, part of Anduril’s family of low-cost, mass-producible autonomous aerial vehicles, into Rheinmetall’s digital sovereignty framework (“Battlesuite”); incorporating a European version of Anduril’s high-performance, multi-mission Group 5 autonomous aerial vehicle (AAV), Fury, into Rheinmetall’s digital framework; and exploring opportunities for solid rocket motors for use in Europe by leveraging Anduril’s new production approaches.
Anduril Industries CEO Brian Schimpf said, “This is a different model of defense collaboration, built on mutual respect for co-production, operational fit, and sovereignty. Together with Rheinmetall, we are developing systems that can be produced quickly, deployed widely, and adapted as NATO missions evolve.”
This agreement allows a US tech company to gain a significant position in the proliferation of weapons technology in Europe, which runs counter to the efforts of Berlin and Brussels to become as autonomous as possible from the US in arms production.
Anduril sets its sights on Europe
Last March, it was announced that Silicon Valley giant Anduril was considering manufacturing drones in the UK and signing contracts with European arms manufacturers as the continent prepares to increase its defense spending. Rich Drake, Anduril’s UK and Europe general manager, said in an interview with Bloomberg, “If we get enough orders, we definitely plan to open a facility in the UK. We are determined to become a standalone British company.”
American defense technology companies like Anduril and data analytics developer Palantir have seen growing interest in Europe since the start of the war in Ukraine. In early February, Anduril and the British government announced a deal worth approximately £30 million ($38 million) to supply offensive drones to Ukraine. In June 2024, Anduril and Rheinmetall signed an agreement to collaborate on air defense systems focusing on small unmanned aerial vehicles. Drake mentioned that the company has also started talks with defense companies in “several other countries” besides Germany.
Anduril is backed by a number of leading Silicon Valley venture capital funds, including Andreessen Horowitz and Founders Fund, and has recently achieved a series of successes, including an agreement with Meta to provide mixed-reality headsets for soldiers.
The importance of Europe for traditional American arms companies
Leading US defense companies have long-standing ties in Europe, which account for a significant portion of their annual revenue, and they hope that deeper partnerships will allow them to continue doing business on the continent.
In 2024, this region represents approximately 11% of the annual revenue for both Lockheed Martin and RTX. Many European armies operate Lockheed’s F-35 fighter jet, while RTX’s Patriot missile is the clear market leader in air defense. Both Lockheed and RTX’s defense subsidiary, Raytheon, have announced the establishment of extensive co-production partnerships on the continent over the past two years. Lockheed will establish large-scale missile production with Rheinmetall, and a joint venture between Raytheon and European missile manufacturer MBDA will produce Patriot missiles for NATO in Germany.
Thomas Laliberty, president of land and air defense systems at Raytheon, noted that countries exhibit “different approaches to the concept of sovereignty.” He added that Raytheon tries “to understand each one and help them meet those requirements as best we can.”
Lockheed Martin’s chief operating officer, Frank St. John, told the Financial Times in Paris that the company is not only expanding its supply chain in Europe but also establishing production facilities. He added that partnerships ensure the region’s financing is appropriate and that European requirements can be met.
Boeing also states it is “examining what collaboration opportunities are available.” The company has indicated its desire to replicate the joint development approach it used with Australia to develop the MQ-28 Ghost Bat unmanned combat aircraft in Europe as well.
Diplomacy
France eases opposition to Turkish SAMP/T air defense acquisition, sources say
France has adopted a more open stance toward the potential sale of the French-Italian SAMP/T air defense system to Türkiye, signaling a shift after years of staunch opposition.
Sources speaking to Reuters indicated that this change in posture followed discussions between French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on June 25, held on the sidelines of a meeting ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Türkiye.
However, Reuters reported that negotiations remain in their early stages. “There was clearly a lack of transparency before, but now there is transparency,” a source familiar with the talks said.
Conversely, the French presidency stated that the Reuters report contained “significant inaccuracies” and declined to confirm the information. The Elysée Palace did not specify what those inaccuracies were and refused to elaborate.
Sources noted that while Paris has set aside some of the political reservations that previously blocked progress, hesitations still persist.
Türkiye, France, and Italy initiated cooperation between 2017 and 2018 under a potential long-range air defense program, which envisioned joint development and co-production. However, the project ground to a halt as relations between Paris and Ankara deteriorated over disputes in Syria, Libya, and the Eastern Mediterranean, the latter involving Greece and Cyprus.
The SAMP/T, also known as “Mamba,” is manufactured by Eurosam, a French-Italian consortium that brings together MBDA France, MBDA Italy, and Thales. The system can track dozens of targets simultaneously, intercept multiple threats at once, and is marketed as the only European-made system capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.
Frequently described as the closest European equivalent to the US Patriot system, analysts remain divided on its efficacy. Analysts point out that the system has not been deployed in active combat for years.
Türkiye is seeking to acquire the system as part of its planned integrated air and missile defense network, known as the “Steel Dome” (Çelik Kubbe).
A source added that Meloni and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the matter during a telephone call on July 3.
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters in June that Ankara is evaluating options, including the US Patriot and the SAMP/T systems, and remains open to cooperation that includes technology transfer and co-production.
A Turkish official noted that the process had been stalled since 2020 due to tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and European Union sanctions. “At present, there seems to be political will from all three parties (Türkiye, Italy, France) to move this process forward,” the official said.
Outside of Paris and Rome, Singapore is the only country to have imported the system. However, in recent years, the system has been transferred to Ukraine, and France deployed it this year to help the United Arab Emirates defend itself against Iranian missile strikes. Additionally, Italy deployed the system to Türkiye in mid-June as part of NATO defense planning.
Any potential agreement would likely center on the next-generation version of the system, which is currently being distributed to the French and Italian militaries.
Officials stated that Erdogan and Macron are scheduled to hold a meeting to discuss bilateral issues within the framework of the NATO summit. Erdogan had previously sought to persuade Macron to drop his opposition during the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, following a thaw in bilateral relations.
Two sources cautioned that France would need to appease Greece and Cyprus regarding any potential sale. France has signed strategic defense agreements with both nations.
For years, Turkish officials have privately and publicly viewed France as the primary political obstacle to the program. Italy, by contrast, has long favored sharing the SAMP/T system with Türkiye to deepen defense industry cooperation.
The issue regained momentum last year as Ankara intensified efforts to strengthen its missile defense capabilities amid regional instability, and as NATO allies re-evaluated defense cooperation and capability requirements.
Sources emphasized that France’s newly open posture should not be interpreted as an approved sale.
“This is just a beginning,” said Murat Aslan, a defense and security researcher at the Ankara-based think tank SETA. “Even if France agrees to the sale, there is a long road ahead.”
Diplomacy
European NATO members accelerate plans to replace departing US military assets
The structural transition toward a “European NATO” has accelerated rapidly amid a scaling back of US assets within the alliance and strategic preparations for a partial American withdrawal from the continent.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and senior NATO generals report that rapid progress is being made on the “Europeanization” of the military alliance.
As confirmed by the US Commander of NATO Allied Joint Force Command, General Alexus Grynkewich, European member states have succeeded in replacing a significant volume of US military aircraft, warships, and military units within just a few weeks, after Washington withdrew them from NATO availability in early June.
European units are currently deployed and on standby to replace the departing US forces.
Last week, Pistorius officially approved the designation of the 1st German-Netherlands Corps in Valga, Estonia, as the tactical headquarters for all NATO operations in Estonia and Latvia.
This corps operates in parallel with the German-Polish-Danish Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin, Poland, which continues to serve as the headquarters for alliance operations in Poland and Lituania.
The development of a “European NATO” has been met with approval in Washington. Within the Pentagon, officials are referring to this transition as “NATO 3.0,” a restructuring designed to relieve the burden on the US, thereby enabling American operations in other theaters.
Washington has also praised Germany’s leadership in driving this transition.
Europe replaces the US
Plans to expand the operational activities of European member states within NATO—ensuring the alliance remains functional during a crisis even without the US—have been systematically executed since the beginning of last year.
These initiatives are driven by the potential inauguration of US President Donald Trump for a second term and the ongoing uncertainty over whether he will act on his repeated threats to withdraw the US from NATO.
As reported by the Wall Street Journal in April, while individual NATO member states initially took the lead on these initiatives, the efforts gained significant momentum late last year when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz decided that Germany would join the transition.
Concretely, the objective is to replace the US presence—which has historically been dominant at all levels in terms of both personnel and equipment—with officers and weapons systems from European nations.
For example, in the most recent major command restructuring announced in early February, European generals were promoted to lead Allied Joint Force Command Naples and Allied Joint Force Command Norfolk in Virginia, both of which were previously commanded by US generals.
NATO exercises are also increasingly being conducted under European leadership or exclusively with European troops.
Gaps filled, except for heavy bombers
A few days ago, European NATO member states took another step forward in this transition.
Shortly before the force generation conference held at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Mons, Belgium, in early June, the US withdrew a large number of aircraft, drones, ships, and submarines from NATO availability.
This decision meant that these assets ceased to be available for designated NATO operations.
The withdrawal affected, among other assets, one of two long-range bomber wings, 54 of 153 fighter jets, and half of the cruiser and destroyer units.
Last week, it was reported that European NATO members had managed to “largely bridge” these gaps ahead of the upcoming NATO summit, a development confirmed by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), US General Alexus Grynkewich.
According to reports, no suitable replacement has yet been found for the US long-range bombers. However, Grynkewich’s deputy, John Stringer, stated that the overall process serves as evidence of a “stronger Europe” within NATO.
New German-Dutch joint headquarters in the Baltics
Last week, the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and the Dutch Armed Forces took a further step in Estonia.
In Valga, located near the Latvian border, the 1st German-Netherlands Corps officially assumed the role of tactical headquarters for all NATO operations in Estonia and Latvia in the presence of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
Established in 1995, the corps was previously deployed primarily in Afghanistan. It has now been directly integrated into preparation efforts for a potential conflict with Russia.
This transition has altered the distribution of operational responsibilities in the Baltic region. The Multinational Corps Northeast, based in Szczecin, Poland, and led by Germany, Poland, and Denmark, has handed over its previous responsibilities for Estonia and Latvia. It will henceforth serve as a tactical headquarters managing NATO operations exclusively in Poland and Lithuania.
This area of responsibility includes the geostrategically highly sensitive Suwałki Gap, which runs from Belarus along the Polish-Lithuanian border to Kaliningrad.
NATO strategists view this corridor as a primary potential target for a Russian offensive.
According to a recent statement from the German Federal Ministry of Defense, the new role assigned to the 1st German-Netherlands Corps strengthens “the role of Europe within NATO.”
“NATO 3.0” advances: The theses of Elbridge Colby
The Europeanization of NATO is taking place in full coordination with the US, and under direct American pressure.
This strategic alignment was demonstrated during the NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels on February 12 by statements from Elbridge Colby.
Colby, an influential Pentagon figure who serves as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, attended the meeting on behalf of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
According to Colby, NATO is currently entering a new historical phase. While the alliance focused on the collective transatlantic struggle against the Soviet Union in the decades following its founding, it shifted its focus after 1990 to out-of-area operations far beyond its borders, such as in Yugoslavia and later in Afghanistan.
Colby described this as the transition from “NATO 1.0” to “NATO 2.0.” Today, however, the task is to execute the transition to “NATO 3.0.”
This shift is driven by the reality that the US is currently focusing on new priorities: on one hand, new military activities in Latin America and the Caribbean, and on the other, establishing a more robust presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
In addition, Colby explained that the US must maintain the capacity to wage war on multiple fronts simultaneously.
US pushes Germany to lead
Colby further indicated that this geopolitical reality requires European nations to provide for their own defense to the greatest extent possible.
With the exception of nuclear deterrence, the US no longer possesses sufficient reserve capacity to secure Europe.
Consequently, European NATO members must not only continue to increase their military spending but also urgently expand their military capabilities.
The objective is to strengthen not only overall “readiness” but also weapons and ammunition stockpiles, alongside “industrial capacities” for all forms of defense production.
If this is achieved, Colby argued, NATO will emerge from its current challenges stronger than before.
In late April, Colby addressed this topic in detail on X, evaluating the German military strategy adopted at the time.
Colby concluded that the document confirmed Germany is now assuming a “leadership role.” Noting that the Pentagon stands ready to assist European NATO member states, particularly Germany, Colby welcomed the German military strategy as a “clear and credible path toward NATO 3.0.”
The Under Secretary emphasized that the strategy is “highly suitable to rapidly make NATO in Europe genuinely strong.”
Diplomacy
Climate litigants target rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centers
The rapid expansion of data centers powering artificial intelligence systems is increasingly triggering legal battles over environmental concerns.
According to a report by the London School of Economics (LSE) cited by The Guardian in its annual climate litigation review, non-governmental organizations, local communities, and environmental activists from Chile to Ireland and the US are seeking to block the construction and operation of data centers through the courts, citing high energy consumption, water usage, and associated climate risks.
Researchers analyzed approximately 3,600 climate lawsuits filed globally since 2015, detecting a rise in cases linked to data centers.
The legal proceedings focus on energy supply sources, the volume of water used to cool servers, and environmental pollution.
One of the earliest cases in this field was filed against a Google project in the Chilean capital, Santiago.
In 2020, local residents and municipal officials challenged a construction permit granted for a massive data center in the Cerrillos area, arguing that it threatened the water resources of a city already struggling with drought.
The court ruled that the project’s climate impacts had been inadequately assessed and ordered a review of the decision.
Environmental impacts of projects in Chile and Ireland taken to court
In Ireland, which the report’s authors describe as one of the global flashpoints of conflicts over data centers, the situation is even more acute.
According to data shared in the report, more than 20% of the country’s total electricity consumption is allocated to this sector.
Despite government plans to further expand the sector, environmental organizations are pursuing legal action against official decisions that allow new facilities to use fossil fuels for several more years before transitioning to renewable sources.
Lawsuits in the US and UK force companies to make commitments
Environmental requirements for data centers are also tightening in the US. Officials in the city of Pittsburg, California, imposed obligations on a new data center to use renewable energy and opt for recycled water for equipment cooling.
At the same time, lawsuits in several states are challenging regulatory bodies that have approved the construction of fossil-fuel-based energy infrastructure to meet growing computing capacity demands.
A project belonging to Elon Musk’s xAI company in the state of Mississippi has also faced legal pressure.
Plaintiffs argue that the company used methane generators without obtaining the necessary environmental permits, thereby violating the Clean Air Act. The US Department of Justice, meanwhile, defended the project, highlighting its economic significance.
Similar disputes are occurring across Europe.
In the United Kingdom, activists successfully secured a review of the environmental assessment report for a planned mega-scale data center project in Buckinghamshire.
Following the judicial process, official authorities acknowledged deficiencies in the approval process, while the contractor agreed to undertake additional environmental commitments.
According to the experts who prepared the study, these lawsuits demonstrate that judicial processes have become a new tool for regulating rapidly expanding digital infrastructure.
Even if projects are not halted entirely, the lawsuits force companies and official bodies to account for climate risks, transparently disclose resource consumption data, and re-evaluate their energy strategies.
As reported by The Guardian, study co-author Associate Professor Joana Setzer of the London School of Economics commented on the issue: “The issue here is not necessarily to stop development, but to prevent the lock-in of fossil fuel dependency.”
“This is an opportunity to direct highly energy-intensive projects toward renewable energy sources while we still have the chance,” Setzer added.
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