Connect with us

Diplomacy

NATO faces severe structural and logistical deficits, Professor Erenel warns

Published

on

In an extensive analytical interview conducted for the Harici digital news platform, retired Brigadier General Professor Fahri Erenel provided a comprehensive assessment of shifting global security dynamics, the structural limitations of NATO, regional conflict vectors in the Middle East, and the strategic calculus governing US, Israeli, and European defense postures.

Erenel, who serves as a faculty member at Istanbul Aydin University, argued that the persistent turbulence across the Middle East—marked by ongoing hostilities involving Israel, Iran, and various non-state actors—must be understood through the lens of domestic economic imperatives and political survival strategies, particularly within the United States. He noted that despite diplomatic interventions and post-summit declarations, the underlying drivers of regional instability remain largely unaddressed.

“Trump is executing a wartime economy strategy”

Evaluating the strategic behavior of Washington and the vacillating rhetoric surrounding potential military interventions, Erenel asserted that the US administration under Donald Trump is leveraging controlled geopolitical tension to stimulate domestic economic output. Drawing explicitly on international political economy theory, Erenel stated, “As Charles Kindleberger clearly articulated, maintaining global primacy carries immense costs. The US has sustained the burden of being a dominant power for decades, but the conflict with Iran revealed a critical shift: traditional allies did not immediately offer unqualified support to Trump’s military calls.”

Erenel contended that the frequent shifts in US messaging—alternating between aggressive threats of bombardment and sudden overtures toward diplomatic resolution—serve specific domestic market functions. “Trump is executing a wartime economy strategy,” Erenel stated. “By keeping markets on edge, talking up severe military action one day and impending negotiations the next, the administration influences global energy markets and drives up oil prices. This is a calculated attempt to address a massive US current account deficit approaching $40 billion and to spur domestic employment ahead of upcoming elections.”

Comparing current US industrial policy to the economic mobilization observed prior to direct US entry into the Second World War, Erenel emphasized that heightened global security risks directly benefit defense contractors and key industrial sectors. “During the World War years, American industry achieved full employment by supplying European belligerents long before deploying its own troops,” he explained. “Today, we see defense enterprise valuations surging alongside selective automotive and high-tech manufacturing partnerships focused on artificial intelligence and advanced air defense systems. The continuous consumption of munitions in regional theaters forces defense supply chains to run at maximum capacity, creating jobs and driving domestic spending within the US economy.”

“European nations face severe logistical and structural barriers”

Addressing the evolution of transatlantic security structures, Erenel expressed deep skepticism regarding the operational viability of initiatives dubbed “NATO 3.0” and European strategic autonomy. While recent alliance summits highlighted a transition from qualitative readiness toward quantitative buildup, Erenel argued that European defense integration remains severely constrained by deep-seated structural fragmentation, industrial dependency, and inadequate infrastructure.

“The concept of NATO 3.0 represents a narrative shift rather than a fundamental realignment of military capability,” Erenel said. “European nations face severe logistical and structural barriers that prevent the rapid deployment of heavy forces. For instance, while key allies like the US, Germany, and the UK rely on specific main battle tank platforms, European NATO members collectively operate 14 distinct tank variants utilizing up to 168 different types of ammunition. Standardizing logistics across such a fragmented inventory is an extraordinary challenge.”

Erenel further highlighted critical physical infrastructure deficits across the European continent, noting that bridges and transit corridors built for lighter vehicle loads cannot support modern 60-ton armored formations. “During recent exercises, heavy units encountered immediate bottlenecks at cross-border transit points, such as the German-Hungarian frontier, simply because the underlying infrastructure could not support their tonnage,” he observed. “European proposals to allocate a fraction of defense budgets to dual-use infrastructure reflect a belated realization that advanced hardware is ineffective if it cannot be mobilized. Given these constraints, together with the political refusal of several member states to drastically increase spending, Europe will remain heavily dependent on US military capacity for the foreseeable future.”

In contrast, Erenel pointed to Türkiye’s established manufacturing base and alignment with NATO standardized cataloging since 1952. He noted that as European stockpiles of critical ordnance—such as 155mm artillery shells—dwindle due to sustained high-intensity warfare in Eastern Europe, Turkish industrial capacity stands out as a vital operational asset for alliance readiness.

“Washington seeks a low-intensity, controlled escalation strategy”

Turning to the confrontation between the United States and Iran, Erenel detailed the operational constraints preventing a full-scale ground invasion of Iranian territory, while warning that targeted actions could focus on critical peripheral vulnerabilities. “A full-scale ground campaign penetrating into the Iranian heartland is militarily cost-prohibitive and politically untenable for Washington,” Erenel stated. “An airborne or amphibious assault toward major population centers would result in catastrophic casualties, far exceeding acceptable thresholds for the American public.”

Instead, Erenel outlined a strategy of sustained pressure directed at Iran’s economically and ethnically sensitive border regions. “Washington seeks a low-intensity, controlled escalation strategy designed to maintain psychological and economic friction,” he explained. “If external forces seek to project physical control, the primary axis of vulnerability lies in regions like Khuzestan, the Strait of Hormuz periphery, and Sistan-Baluchestan. The Sistan-Baluchestan corridor, bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, represents Iran’s exposed flank. Operating in tandem with internal socio-economic pressures and active insurgent elements such as PJAK in the northwest, selective external pressure aims to fragment state coherence without requiring deep territorial occupation.”

Erenel added that sustained economic isolation, combined with targeted strikes on energy infrastructure and dual-use logistics, exacerbates internal political divisions within Tehran. He noted visible friction between hardline factions, notably within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and moderate elements favoring diplomatic compromise. However, he emphasized that hardline security structures maintain decisive operational control over strategic decision-making.

“Israel is pursuing a peripheral containment strategy”

Evaluating the diplomatic and military posture of Israel, Erenel dismissed the notion of a fundamental strategic rift between Washington and Tel Aviv, characterizing public disagreements as tactical theater designed for domestic audiences. “The apparent friction between top US officials and Israeli leadership reflects political maneuvering rather than a structural divergence,” Erenel asserted. “Both leaderships are managing precarious domestic political landscapes ahead of major electoral cycles.”

Erenel warned of expanding Israeli strategic activity in the Eastern Mediterranean, specifically highlighting Cyprus as a central pillar of Tel Aviv’s long-term security matrix. “Israel is pursuing a peripheral containment strategy, expanding its operational depth far beyond its immediate land borders,” Erenel stated. “Historical and geopolitical imperatives drive Tel Aviv’s focus on Cyprus. Because Israel lacks geographical depth and possesses limited maritime forces relative to regional landmasses, it views the island of Cyprus as an essential forward operating node.”

Erenel detailed the steady accumulation of Israeli real estate acquisitions, intelligence installations, and military training agreements across both the northern and southern sectors of Cyprus. “Through significant land purchases, infrastructure investments, and joint security arrangements, Israel is securing a forward position in the Eastern Mediterranean,” he stated. “The installation of advanced radar systems on the Troodos Mountains and joint intelligence initiatives with the Greek Cypriot administration directly impact regional equilibrium. From a strategic standpoint, this alignment—linking Israel, Greece, and the Greek Cypriot administration under the umbrella of shared opposition to Ankara—constitutes a deliberate attempt to encircle Türkiye from the south.”

Concluding his assessment, Erenel emphasized that Türkiye must take proactive countermeasures to safeguard its maritime rights and military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. He urged the formal adoption of comprehensive maritime domain legislation and called for the continued enhancement of Turkish naval and air capabilities based in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. “Türkiye remains the indispensable power in the region,” Erenel concluded. “In response to shifting alliances and forward deployments in Cyprus, maintaining robust forward defenses, establishing permanent naval infrastructure, and protecting the integrity of the Mavi Vatan (Blue Homeland) framework are absolute strategic necessities.”

Diplomacy

Global dockers strike against war and arms transit to Palestine

Published

on

Dockers at 111 ports across 22 countries and territories will down tools on Friday as part of a coordinated anti-war strike.

So far, more than 25 dockers’ unions, spanning from Marseille to Mumbai, Hamburg to Montevideo, and Melbourne to Oakland, have announced their participation in the walkout.

Just days ago, the figure stood at approximately 100 ports in 17 countries, a tally that excluded dozens of unions from other sectors that had pledged their support.

The striking workers’ primary demand is that no weapons or military cargo pass through their ports.

In France, the main dockers’ union states that 95% of the country’s ports will be shut down.

Twenty-four-hour strikes will take place in Italy, India, Greece, and Türkiye, while work stoppages of up to two hours are scheduled in Morocco and Cyprus, alongside rallies planned in port cities across the globe.

In Greece, metalworkers, ship repair workers, and youth are joining the dockers, while in the US, International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 10 is striking in Oakland and San Francisco.

The unions are taking the Istanbul Declaration, signed in May, as their basis, with each determining its own form of participation.

They are also fighting for their own jobs, resisting layoffs driven by automation, and campaigning for contracts, pay increases, shorter working hours, and job security.

The unions draw attention to escalating wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, pointing to the risk of a wider, general war.

They also condemn new crimes committed by Israel in Hebron, carried out with the support of the US, NATO, and the EU. According to the UN, Israel’s blockade of the city has entered its sixth day, and more than 3,000 Palestinians have been displaced. Palestinian trade unions are backing Friday’s action.

In Italy, the struggle has spilled beyond the docks. The USB union has called a nationwide general strike.

Last night, the Italian government ordered transport workers to return to work. The USB declared that it will not comply with the order, choosing to risk heavy penalties instead.

Calling on workers and young people everywhere to show solidarity with dockers, the unions declared: “Ports should be for peace and for peoples, not launch pads for war.”

Continue Reading

Diplomacy

Steinmeier seeks to de-escalate German-Chinese tensions on visit

Published

on

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is seeking to prevent further escalation in tensions during his latest official visit to China.

China remains exceptionally important for key sectors of the German economy. The Asian giant is the second most critical foreign location for German companies.

As reported by German Foreign Policy, investments by these companies in China total over 110 billion euros. By comparison, German investment volumes are higher only in the US and Luxembourg, with investments in Luxembourg largely driven by tax advantages.

German companies also continue to invest in China. In the first half of 2026, they carried out investments of around 5.6 billion euros, surpassing even the 4.3 billion euros invested in the US.

In addition, automotive groups, among others, are increasingly conducting research and development activities in the People’s Republic of China.

According to a recent assessment by an expert from the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW), some companies are using this fast-developing country as a “fitness centre”.

At the same time, however, China’s importance as a sales market is declining sharply: German exports to China fell from 107 billion euros in 2022 to just 81 billion euros in 2025.

Above all, China’s exports to Europe and particularly to Germany are surging, threatening to erode the market share of the flagship sectors of German industry on their domestic market, especially automotive, mechanical engineering, and the chemical industry.

EU prepares moves against China

The EU is responding with defensive measures, but this remains a sensitive issue.

Should China retaliate, it could cause severe damage, particularly to German industry, given its substantial presence in the country.

In October 2024, Brussels imposed high tariffs on electric car imports. As Chinese manufacturers subsequently began exporting hybrid models to Europe on a large scale, debate quickly emerged over introducing high tariffs on these vehicles as well.

Meanwhile, measures targeting machinery and chemical imports are also being prepared, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced at the latest EU summit held in Brussels in mid-October.

The EU is additionally working on a package known as the “second-strike instrument”. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron recently called for the deployment of this mechanism in a joint letter to the Commission.

The objective of this tool is to enable robust measures in situations of intense economic power struggles, including the partial or even total exclusion of third-country companies from the EU single market within just a few days.

Under the proposal, the European Commission would be able to decide on such measures on its own initiative. In that scenario, member states insisting on the adoption of the measures would reportedly be less easily identifiable, allowing them to hope to avoid Chinese retaliation.

Hybrid vehicle compromise

According to German Foreign Policy, doubts about whether the EU could survive an open economic war against China rest on solid ground.

In mid-June, the Financial Times reported that experts from think tanks and academia had simulated escalating economic clashes between the two sides in a tabletop exercise.

In that simulation, Brussels failed to bring Beijing to its knees; on the contrary, it would probably have lost an open economic war.

Against this backdrop, the EU agreed to settle the dispute over Chinese hybrid car imports through negotiations.

A few days before the mid-October EU summit, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič managed to outline such a resolution during talks in Beijing with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.

Under the agreement, the volume of hybrid cars exported from China to the EU, which stood at around 302,000 units in 2025, will be capped from December at an annual 350,000 units; more precisely, 350,000 units plus 6% per year.

This arrangement is envisaged to remain in effect for four years, granting EU carmakers some breathing space to catch up with their Chinese rivals.

Similar arrangements are being discussed in mechanical engineering and the chemical industry, as well as potentially in pharmaceuticals.

China counter-moves: Export controls

While the EU pursues this track and prepares its economic “second-strike instrument”, the People’s Republic of China is taking steps to secure leverage in current economic power struggles.

These measures are directed primarily at a potential escalation of the economic war with the US, which is currently more or less frozen, but in a worst-case scenario they could also be deployed against the EU.

Specifically, Beijing is preparing new export controls that go beyond the restrictions on rare earth elements with which China succeeded in blunting an unprecedented US tariff and sanctions offensive.

As reported early last week, the People’s Republic of China plans to subject exports of roughly 40 technologies, spanning artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and photovoltaics, to strict licensing conditions, or even prohibit them outright.

The stated rationale is that the country merely wishes to take steps to “safeguard national security”, in an overt mirror of the primary justification invoked by the US for a wide array of embargo measures.

With critical technologies subject to restricted export or barred entirely, relocating the production of certain goods such as photovoltaic cells away from China to foreign locations will become harder, a shift that could also affect European firms.

Steinmeier visits China: Can he defuse tensions?

Against this background, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier arrived in China on Monday for his latest official visit.

On the first day of his trip, Steinmeier visited the Volkswagen Group facility in the metropolis of Hefei.

Volkswagen operates a research centre there employing around 3,000 engineers, designed to keep pace with the rapid development of electric mobility in the People’s Republic of China.

Innovations developed in Hefei are transferred at times to facilities in Germany, helping prevent them from falling further behind internationally.

Hefei has transformed into a high-tech hub on the back of heavy investment in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles.

VW plans to supply Central Asian and particularly South-East Asian markets from its Chinese facilities to preserve competitiveness across these regions.

Marking the Federal President’s trip, the Office of the Federal President stated that the goal was not “decoupling from China”, but rather sustaining “close and resilient economic relations”.

According to reports, Steinmeier coordinated not only with Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is currently visiting Japan, but also with EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, who is pursuing robust trade policy alignment with the People’s Republic of China in line with German industrial interests.

Steinmeier is eager to support this effort and is accompanied notably by Peter Leibinger, president of the Federation of German Industries (BDI).

The president will then travel to Beijing to hold talks with top leaders, including his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, before concluding his visit.

His office noted that the visit seeks to “address Germany’s multifaceted and complex relations with China and the challenges confronting them”, while his time in Anhui will highlight “China at the turn of the century around 1900 and the significance of this era in the history of German-Chinese relations”.

According to the South China Morning Post, the selection of Anhui underscores Berlin’s emphasis on dialogue despite deteriorating bilateral ties amid rising trade tensions, driven by German concerns that fierce Chinese competition could erode Germany’s manufacturing core.

German leader’s packed China itinerary

Before heading to Beijing, Steinmeier will also visit the historic village of Hongcun and Mount Huangshan, sites that the German presidency noted bring together “nature, architecture, and philosophy”.

In the capital, Steinmeier will tour the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences to evaluate climate cooperation, followed by an address at Peking University. Xi is subsequently expected to receive him with full military honours.

Visiting leaders’ regional engagements extend well beyond Anhui, with China’s financial capital, Shanghai, remaining one of the most sought-after stops.

In January alone, the city hosted South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while a visit in August by King Abdullah II of Jordan further cemented Shanghai’s standing as a gateway to Chinese technology and consumer markets.

Just south of Shanghai, Hangzhou has emerged as a similarly vital diplomatic destination. Once renowned primarily for the classical scenery of West Lake, the capital of Zhejiang province has evolved into an innovation hub drawing foreign heads of state with itineraries centred on robotics, e-commerce, and advanced manufacturing.

Continue Reading

Diplomacy

Ukraine plans new business model to end street recruitment drives

Published

on

The Ukrainian government is preparing a new mobilization model that fundamentally alters military deferrals, requiring businesses to systematically supply personnel to the armed forces in exchange for shielding other employees from service.

Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskiy announced that under the draft framework, which is scheduled for completion by 1 December, enterprises will pledge to send a designated quota of staff into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to secure exemptions for remaining workers.

Speaking at the Kyiv International Economic Forum, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, Prime Minister Koretskiy said the objective is to end the practice of drafting men off the streets.

Describing the projected structure as an idealistic social contract, Koretskiy said: “Let us establish a social model where employees are safeguarded, but businesses also commit to providing a predictable flow of mobilization for the military. If we can devise such a formula, the necessity of searching for people on the streets will also be eliminated.”

Koretskiy noted that deferrals will be renewed for over 90% to 95% of staff in critical sectors such as fuel, energy, and the defence industry. He emphasized that the criteria defining an enterprise as critical will be decoupled from economic exemption standards.

The prime minister stated that this regulatory change will curb unjustified deferrals, prevent an economic collapse, and bring certainty to the rotation expectations of soldiers serving on the front lines.

In separate remarks delivered the previous week, Koretskiy noted that the government intends to preserve exemption rights for companies that sustain national defence capacity and vital everyday services, while simultaneously increasing criminal penalties for unauthorized absence from military units and draft evasion.

Immediately following these statements, the official resolution overhauling the mobilization deferral system was published on the Ukrainian government website.

According to details reported by the UNIAN news agency, state institutions and regional administrations will review existing criteria and audit every business previously granted “critical” status within 10 days of the regulation entering into force.

Enterprises that no longer satisfy exemption conditions or whose justifications have lapsed may have the status rescinded prematurely.

A new coordination centre is being established to administer the process. This body will issue advisory decisions regarding the granting or revoking of critical enterprise status, as well as requests to raise exemption quotas.

The bureaucratic procedure limits the initial review to a maximum of 7 working days, after which the coordination centre will have up to one month to assess the file. A final decision must then be rendered within 3 working days of the recommendation reaching the commission.

For select enterprises operating in the energy and defence sectors, the ceiling for staff exemptions has been capped at 95%. However, this entitlement will apply strictly to personnel directly engaged in production processes.

Authority to raise the exemption quota above the 95% threshold will depend entirely on special approval issued by either the Ukrainian Defence Ministry or the Energy Ministry.

The compliance history of company leadership will directly influence the procedure; quota increase requests may be rejected outright if executives have violated military registration requirements two or more times in the preceding 12 months, or if they have received administrative fines on those grounds.

Companies granted quota increases will have 10 working days to conclude the required formalities.

If an enterprise fails to formalize worker deferrals through Diia, Ukraine’s digital public services portal, within this timeframe, the supplemental quota allocation will be revoked entirely. All approved exemption quotas will remain valid for a maximum duration of one year.

Martial law and general mobilization, which were declared in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, have been extended at regular intervals ever since.

On 26 October, the Ukrainian parliament renewed these measures for the 21st time, approving a 90-day extension that runs until 29 January 2027.

Under current legislation, men aged between 25 and 60 who are deemed fit for military service are directly subject to mobilization.

Men under the age of 25 are classified under conscription call-up status and are not dispatched to the front line through general mobilization.

Individuals in this age bracket retain the right to travel abroad between the ages of 18 and 22 via an age-based exception, but they lose this entitlement upon turning 23.

Front-line manpower deficits have long prompted authorities in Kyiv to pursue reforms to the military recruitment framework and to tighten deferral requirements.

The Defence Ministry announced in February that extensive measures were planned, including the automation of deferral procedures and adjustments to the operations of Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Centres (TZK), which function as enlistment offices.

In April, Member of Parliament Roman Kostenko stated that the ministry planned to separate the recruitment duties of draft centres from their social assistance responsibilities, while the possibility of transferring certain mobilization enforcement checks to the police was also raised.

By August, Kostenko reported that the Defence Ministry was examining radical measures, including potential alterations to the mobilization age.

Shortly before that, Minister of Digital Transformation Oksana Ferchuk announced that oversight over exemptions, particularly in the information technology sector, would be significantly restricted.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military’s requirement for front-line reinforcements grows on a daily basis.

In an assessment delivered on 31 August, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov stressed that the military must enlist at least 30,000 individuals each month to sustain its combat effectiveness.

As forced mobilization for the front lines accelerates, objections to heavy-handed practices by recruitment centre personnel have multiplied.

Official complaints concerning draft office personnel stood at just 18 in 2022, before surging to 514 in 2023 and 3,312 in 2024. The influx of grievances continued unabated, peaking at 6,127 official complaints according to 2025 figures.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey