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German arms industry expands presence in India amidst geopolitical shifts

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German arms manufacturers Rheinmetall and Diehl Defence have signed agreements with India’s Reliance Defence for the production of precision-guided munitions, explosives, and propellants in India. This move is driven not only by a desire to diversify supply chains but also by Berlin’s efforts to encourage New Delhi to reduce its arms cooperation with Moscow.

Germany has recently increased military collaboration with India, including joint naval and air force maneuvers. However, German companies still lag significantly behind their Western rivals in the US and France, who are supplying or planning to supply fighter jets for large-scale arms purchases in India.

The recent military conflict between India and Pakistan has intensified competition in the growing Indian defense market, with India shifting its focus toward advanced high-tech weaponry, including combat aircraft.

Reliance Defence, the partner of Rheinmetall, continues to lead the list of Indian companies securing international defense contracts. The company has faced accusations of receiving preferential treatment from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Diehl and Reliance partner for 155mm precision-guided munitions

On June 10, Diehl Defence and India’s Reliance Defence announced a strategic cooperation agreement for the production of Vulcano 155mm precision-guided munitions in India. These munitions, equipped with GPS technology and laser-guided targeting, are expected to enhance the Indian army’s precision weapon capabilities.

Reports suggest that Reliance Defence anticipates sales of up to $1 billion. This agreement between Diehl and Reliance was announced just days after another strategic partnership was revealed on May 22 between Rheinmetall AG and Reliance Defence. Under this latter agreement, Reliance will take over the production of explosives and propellants for medium and large-caliber ammunition, supplying them to Rheinmetall.

This strategic partnership provides Rheinmetall with access to critical raw materials and ensures the security of its supply chains, with plans for further expansion of the collaboration. The timeframe and total value of the agreement have not yet been disclosed.

South Asia’s largest manufacturing facility to bolster Indian defense production

To support its collaborations with Diehl Defence and Rheinmetall, Reliance will establish its own manufacturing facility at Dhirubhai Ambani Defence City in India’s Maharashtra state. This facility, projected to be one of the largest in South Asia, will produce precision-guided munitions and boast an annual production capacity of 200,000 artillery shells, 10,000 tons of explosives, and 2,000 tons of propellants, which will be supplied to Rheinmetall.

These two contracts increase Reliance’s international defense partnerships to four, following existing collaborations with France’s Dassault Aviation and Thales. The agreements reflect the newly established Reliance Defence’s plans to become a leading company in India’s rapidly expanding defense sector.

Meanwhile, both Diehl and Rheinmetall aim to capitalize on the Indian government’s plan to achieve $5 billion in arms exports by 2029.

Germany’s move to reduce India’s reliance on Russian military imports

The agreements between Rheinmetall, Diehl, and Reliance Defence are part of intensified German efforts, ramped up in 2022, to reduce India’s high dependence on Russian arms imports. In February 2023, during a visit to India, then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged New Delhi for greater support in Western efforts to isolate Russia, including an increase in arms purchases from Germany.

In June 2023, then-Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated during his visit to India, “It is not in Germany’s interest for India to remain dependent on Russia’s arms deliveries in the long term.” Pistorius’s discussions resulted in the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the two countries for the joint construction of six non-nuclear submarines in India, to be carried out by Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and India’s Mazagon companies.

The “Focus on India” document, adopted by the German government in October 2024, explicitly linked the intention to “more strongly direct India toward German arms companies” with the goal of “reducing India’s arms policy orientation toward Russia.” Simultaneously, both countries have expanded practical military cooperation, including joint air and naval maneuvers in and around the Indian Ocean.

India-Pakistan tensions and the Sino-Western military technology rivalry

The recent military conflict between India and Pakistan, also viewed as a test case for the clash between Western and Chinese military technology, has further intensified competition for India’s large defense market. The armed conflict lasted four days, with both sides employing their most advanced weapons, including modern fighter jets. Reports indicate that the Pakistan Air Force, with the assistance of Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets, managed to shoot down one or more Indian Air Force Rafale fighter jets; both aircraft are classified as 4.5 generation.

Since then, the US has increased its efforts to expand arms sales to India, including the potential sale of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets. Shortly before the conflict, India signed a billion-dollar deal with France to acquire 26 Rafale fighter jets to replace its Russian MiG-29K fighter jets.

In response, Russia offered to sell India the Su-57, another fifth-generation fighter jet, and unlike the US, Russia proposed manufacturing the jets in India, including technology transfer. This would enable India to equip the aircraft with indigenous radar and weapon systems. Compared to France and the US, Germany has not recently secured significant arms contracts from India, the world’s largest military equipment importer, apart from the submarine agreement.

Controversial Indian giant: Reliance

Reliance Defence is a subsidiary of Reliance Infrastructure, which is part of the Reliance Group. The Reliance Group is one of India’s leading conglomerates, with total assets of approximately $47 billion and a broad base of about eight million shareholders. The group also includes other affiliated companies such as Reliance Communications, Reliance Capital, Reliance Power, Reliance Defence and Engineering Limited, and Reliance Defence Technologies Private Limited.

However, the group has a controversial history. The Reliance Group is owned by Anil Ambani, who was once listed as the world’s sixth richest person in 2008. By 2019, however, he had accumulated $2 billion in debt to various investors. In 2020, Anil Ambani was forced to declare bankruptcy in a British court after being sued by three Chinese banks for unpaid loans totaling $700 million.

Another significant setback came from Swedish telecommunications company Ericsson, which sued one of his companies over unpaid bills. Anil Ambani was saved from a jail sentence in this case only by the intervention of his elder brother, Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, who paid the debt.

Allegations of Modi’s support for reliance defence

The crisis-ridden Reliance Group reportedly received a lifeline from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the form of an excessively expensive arms deal with French company Dassault Aviation to purchase 36 Rafale fighter jets worth a total of $8.8 billion. As part of the contract signed in April 2015, Reliance Group was designated as an offset partner: Dassault was to reinvest a very large portion of the revenues into Reliance to purchase more defense equipment and strengthen indigenous production capabilities.

This was done despite Reliance Group having no prior experience in the defense sector. In fact, Reliance Group established its subsidiary, Reliance Defence Limited, only thirteen days before the deal with Dassault was announced. A few days after the agreement was signed, Reliance Group formed Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited, which would become Dassault’s most important offset partner. The indebted Ambani Group, with no experience in the aviation sector, suddenly became the guarantor of a multi-billion dollar aviation business.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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