Diplomacy
German arms industry expands presence in India amidst geopolitical shifts
German arms manufacturers Rheinmetall and Diehl Defence have signed agreements with India’s Reliance Defence for the production of precision-guided munitions, explosives, and propellants in India. This move is driven not only by a desire to diversify supply chains but also by Berlin’s efforts to encourage New Delhi to reduce its arms cooperation with Moscow.
Germany has recently increased military collaboration with India, including joint naval and air force maneuvers. However, German companies still lag significantly behind their Western rivals in the US and France, who are supplying or planning to supply fighter jets for large-scale arms purchases in India.
The recent military conflict between India and Pakistan has intensified competition in the growing Indian defense market, with India shifting its focus toward advanced high-tech weaponry, including combat aircraft.
Reliance Defence, the partner of Rheinmetall, continues to lead the list of Indian companies securing international defense contracts. The company has faced accusations of receiving preferential treatment from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Diehl and Reliance partner for 155mm precision-guided munitions
On June 10, Diehl Defence and India’s Reliance Defence announced a strategic cooperation agreement for the production of Vulcano 155mm precision-guided munitions in India. These munitions, equipped with GPS technology and laser-guided targeting, are expected to enhance the Indian army’s precision weapon capabilities.
Reports suggest that Reliance Defence anticipates sales of up to $1 billion. This agreement between Diehl and Reliance was announced just days after another strategic partnership was revealed on May 22 between Rheinmetall AG and Reliance Defence. Under this latter agreement, Reliance will take over the production of explosives and propellants for medium and large-caliber ammunition, supplying them to Rheinmetall.
This strategic partnership provides Rheinmetall with access to critical raw materials and ensures the security of its supply chains, with plans for further expansion of the collaboration. The timeframe and total value of the agreement have not yet been disclosed.
South Asia’s largest manufacturing facility to bolster Indian defense production
To support its collaborations with Diehl Defence and Rheinmetall, Reliance will establish its own manufacturing facility at Dhirubhai Ambani Defence City in India’s Maharashtra state. This facility, projected to be one of the largest in South Asia, will produce precision-guided munitions and boast an annual production capacity of 200,000 artillery shells, 10,000 tons of explosives, and 2,000 tons of propellants, which will be supplied to Rheinmetall.
These two contracts increase Reliance’s international defense partnerships to four, following existing collaborations with France’s Dassault Aviation and Thales. The agreements reflect the newly established Reliance Defence’s plans to become a leading company in India’s rapidly expanding defense sector.
Meanwhile, both Diehl and Rheinmetall aim to capitalize on the Indian government’s plan to achieve $5 billion in arms exports by 2029.
Germany’s move to reduce India’s reliance on Russian military imports
The agreements between Rheinmetall, Diehl, and Reliance Defence are part of intensified German efforts, ramped up in 2022, to reduce India’s high dependence on Russian arms imports. In February 2023, during a visit to India, then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged New Delhi for greater support in Western efforts to isolate Russia, including an increase in arms purchases from Germany.
In June 2023, then-Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated during his visit to India, “It is not in Germany’s interest for India to remain dependent on Russia’s arms deliveries in the long term.” Pistorius’s discussions resulted in the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the two countries for the joint construction of six non-nuclear submarines in India, to be carried out by Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and India’s Mazagon companies.
The “Focus on India” document, adopted by the German government in October 2024, explicitly linked the intention to “more strongly direct India toward German arms companies” with the goal of “reducing India’s arms policy orientation toward Russia.” Simultaneously, both countries have expanded practical military cooperation, including joint air and naval maneuvers in and around the Indian Ocean.
India-Pakistan tensions and the Sino-Western military technology rivalry
The recent military conflict between India and Pakistan, also viewed as a test case for the clash between Western and Chinese military technology, has further intensified competition for India’s large defense market. The armed conflict lasted four days, with both sides employing their most advanced weapons, including modern fighter jets. Reports indicate that the Pakistan Air Force, with the assistance of Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets, managed to shoot down one or more Indian Air Force Rafale fighter jets; both aircraft are classified as 4.5 generation.
Since then, the US has increased its efforts to expand arms sales to India, including the potential sale of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets. Shortly before the conflict, India signed a billion-dollar deal with France to acquire 26 Rafale fighter jets to replace its Russian MiG-29K fighter jets.
In response, Russia offered to sell India the Su-57, another fifth-generation fighter jet, and unlike the US, Russia proposed manufacturing the jets in India, including technology transfer. This would enable India to equip the aircraft with indigenous radar and weapon systems. Compared to France and the US, Germany has not recently secured significant arms contracts from India, the world’s largest military equipment importer, apart from the submarine agreement.
Controversial Indian giant: Reliance
Reliance Defence is a subsidiary of Reliance Infrastructure, which is part of the Reliance Group. The Reliance Group is one of India’s leading conglomerates, with total assets of approximately $47 billion and a broad base of about eight million shareholders. The group also includes other affiliated companies such as Reliance Communications, Reliance Capital, Reliance Power, Reliance Defence and Engineering Limited, and Reliance Defence Technologies Private Limited.
However, the group has a controversial history. The Reliance Group is owned by Anil Ambani, who was once listed as the world’s sixth richest person in 2008. By 2019, however, he had accumulated $2 billion in debt to various investors. In 2020, Anil Ambani was forced to declare bankruptcy in a British court after being sued by three Chinese banks for unpaid loans totaling $700 million.
Another significant setback came from Swedish telecommunications company Ericsson, which sued one of his companies over unpaid bills. Anil Ambani was saved from a jail sentence in this case only by the intervention of his elder brother, Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, who paid the debt.
Allegations of Modi’s support for reliance defence
The crisis-ridden Reliance Group reportedly received a lifeline from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the form of an excessively expensive arms deal with French company Dassault Aviation to purchase 36 Rafale fighter jets worth a total of $8.8 billion. As part of the contract signed in April 2015, Reliance Group was designated as an offset partner: Dassault was to reinvest a very large portion of the revenues into Reliance to purchase more defense equipment and strengthen indigenous production capabilities.
This was done despite Reliance Group having no prior experience in the defense sector. In fact, Reliance Group established its subsidiary, Reliance Defence Limited, only thirteen days before the deal with Dassault was announced. A few days after the agreement was signed, Reliance Group formed Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited, which would become Dassault’s most important offset partner. The indebted Ambani Group, with no experience in the aviation sector, suddenly became the guarantor of a multi-billion dollar aviation business.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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