Middle East
Jolani reportedly offers Trump ‘Ukraine-style’ mineral deal for Syria
According to a report in the British newspaper The Times, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani (Ahmed Shara), the leader of the HTS administration in Syria, will offer concessions to US President Donald Trump, including granting American companies permission to exploit natural resources under a “Ukraine-style” mineral deal.
As part of his proposal to the US president, conveyed through intermediaries including senior officials in Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, Jolani even raised the possibility of constructing a Trump Tower in the capital, Damascus.
The Times was informed that efforts were underway to arrange a meeting between Shara, designated a “terrorist” by the US, and Trump during the latter’s visit to Saudi Arabia this week, but the White House announced on Monday night that such a meeting would not take place.
Trump’s advisors were reportedly divided on whether direct talks would be wise during his intensive three-day Middle East visit, which is set to begin in Riyadh on Tuesday.
Trump is expected to meet with a group of regional leaders, including Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.
Speaking at the White House shortly before departing for Saudi Arabia, Trump said he was considering easing US sanctions on Syria, remnants of the Bashar al-Assad era that hinder Syria’s trade and banking activities, to provide the country with a “new beginning.”
Trump stated, “We will have to make a decision on sanctions, we will most likely ease these sanctions. We are considering lifting the sanctions we have on Syria because we want to give them a chance for a new beginning. Turkish President Erdogan also asked me about this. Many people have asked me about this because the sanctions we have imposed do not give them much of a chance for a fresh start. So we want to see if we can help them, we will make that decision.”
Last week, Jolani met with French President Emmanuel Macron, who had received an exemption from a UN travel ban for talks in Paris, and proposed a gradual lifting of EU sanctions on the condition that the new regime adheres to commitments of “inclusivity and reform.”
According to security sources cited by The Times, Jolani might offer to begin talks on joining the Abraham Accords, signed by the UAE and Bahrain to normalize relations between Arab countries and Israel.
The report suggests Jolani also appears willing to allow Israel, which occupied the Golan Heights in 1967 and subsequently established a buffer zone around them following Assad’s fall, to create a demilitarized zone in southwestern Syria or maintain a security presence in the area.
The Trump administration recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019.
It is understood that Shara has spoken with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about the possibility of a meeting with Trump.
However, there appears to be disagreement among Trump’s senior advisors on this matter. Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, is among those who, while not hostile to the meeting, are cautious and might try to prevent it.
Gabbard, then a congresswoman, visited Syria in 2016, met with Assad, and returned calling for more dialogue.
Another figure skeptical of the meeting is Trump’s counter-terrorism advisor, Sebastian Gorka.
It is alleged that another pro-Israel advisor, former national security advisor and current nominee for UN ambassador, Mike Waltz, prevented Trump from being informed about the concessions Syria was prepared to make before Waltz was dismissed last month.
Waltz was dismissed in February after it was learned that he had secretly met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington and pressured Trump to comply with plans to bomb Iran.
Others, including the President’s special representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, are more amenable to a thaw in relations with Syria, according to The Times. They know how easily Trump sets aside protocol and tradition to make deals and that the US president prefers making money to fighting. Witkoff is one of the most trusted members of the inner circle.
Trump is expected to announce billions of dollars in business deals during his trip. Another source told The Times that these could include a telecommunications contract for US company AT&T with Syria, though this information has not yet been confirmed.
The Trump administration is concerned about Syria turning to China for infrastructure projects. The source stated, “Shara is looking east, to China, but of course, we want him to look west.”
Another US security source with close ties to the Middle East confirmed that the possibility of Syria joining the Abraham Accords had been presented to the Jolani government through the mediation of the UAE.
Some members of the Trump administration, supported by Gulf countries, want to seize this opportunity to break Iran’s influence over Syria, a former backer of the Assad era.
The source said, “If you look at the structure of Ukraine’s mineral deal, this could be a template for Syria. If Syria joins the Abraham Accords and the US uses this as leverage to pull Syria further towards the West, that’s a possibility, and it has been discussed.”
The source added that Gulf countries support Trump’s diplomatic move and that Witkoff is trying to link deals related to Ukraine and the Middle East.
The source commented, “They love him [Witkoff] in the Gulf and Moscow because he doesn’t talk politics, he talks real estate. He talks business, and that’s what those guys like.”
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
-
Europe6 days agoEuropean unions urge governments to scrap all Palantir deals
-
Diplomacy6 days agoEast-West Forum in Istanbul highlights irreversible shift to multipolarity
-
Europe1 week agoEmmanuel Todd says West faces collapse amid Ukraine and Iran crises
-
Diplomacy1 week agoEast-West Forum in Istanbul to debate multipolarity and global order
-
Europe2 weeks agoEuropean intelligence chiefs divide over risk of Russian attack
-
Middle East2 weeks agoSharaa says 7 October must not shape Israel policy on Syria
-
America2 weeks agoRepublican support for Trump’s war with Iran drops sharply in polls
-
Europe6 days agoRome protests AfD poster depicting South Tyrol as independent state
