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Alexander Rahr: It would surprise me if this government lasts four years

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Alexander Rahr is one of Germany’s leading foreign policy experts. He worked at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) for twenty years, where he held managerial positions and played significant roles in shaping German foreign policy. Specializing particularly in German-Russian relations, Rahr is known for his work on Eastern European policies. His analyses, which bring intellectual depth to politics, have earned him respect in both academic and decision-making circles. Rahr, a recipient of the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany, has also drawn the German public’s attention to the Eurasian region with his perspectives on the area. We conducted an exclusive interview with Alexander Rahr at his home in Berlin. We asked him about the new federal government in Germany and the prominent issues.

Q: What will be the biggest challenges and tests for the new government?

A: The biggest challenge, to put it simply, will be to present a different image from the traffic light coalition [traffic light coalition, referring to the previous SPD-Greens-FDP government] and not to be internally divided like them. That in itself is already a difficult task. And I am sure that the first major dispute will erupt over the issue of migration in the summer months. Especially if the CDU, along with Interior Minister Dobrindt, is serious about closing borders and deporting people. In that case, the danger of the coalition collapsing would immediately arise, because the SPD would oppose it. I believe such disagreements will also occur in defense and militarization policies. Individuals within the SPD who come from the peace movement will oppose such extensive armament. In short, it would surprise me if this government lasts 4 years.

The German economy cannot be fixed by ‘militarizing’

Q: Germany has been in a recession for some time. In this context, I’d like to ask: With the new government, is the aim to stimulate the economy by prioritizing military spending, in other words, to achieve economic dynamism through a kind of militarization? Is this possible? Because this seems like a transformation. Germany is no longer the leader in the automotive sector as it once was. Could it now be seeking to fill this gap with the defense industry?

A: Yes, this is the plan of the Merz government [referring to a hypothetical future government led by Friedrich Merz of the CDU] and the elites. This situation quite surprises me, because I don’t recognize such a Germany. But when I read Spiegel and other news sources, I come across things that confirm what you’re saying. German economic circles, especially the government and parties, believe that an arms race—which is the policy Reagan pursued 40 years ago of “exhausting the Russians through an arms race”—will lead to a major economic breakthrough. They think that large-scale European armament will bring new orders, new companies will be established, new financial resources will be created, and most importantly, Europe will thereby strengthen, intimidate others, and gain more influence in the world.

This is a rather traditional perspective. However, it is very dangerous and ignores certain realities. This viewpoint completely underestimates the Russian economy; because it is still believed that Russia can be defeated with sanctions, but this will not happen. Furthermore, it ignores the fact that the response to large-scale militarization by Germany or Europe will be for the rest of the world—China, for example—to start arming itself. China will no longer be so peaceful. Other countries seeing Europe arm itself will initially think it’s against Russia, but then they will realize it could also be against China and other countries, and they will prepare themselves accordingly. This is not a good development for the global economy. On the contrary, it could lead to the formation of new blocs in the world and the end of globalization.

When we look at Germany’s internal dynamics, I think there’s a great deal of living in a fantasy world here too. Because Germany’s biggest problems are neither in Russia nor in the Ukraine crisis; they are not externally sourced. Germany’s real problem—which experts have been pointing out for years—is deindustrialization. This process is quite advanced. For Germany to become a strong industrial country again, it needs to regain its potential, but not through armament. We need to produce things that people genuinely need and rebuild the infrastructure. Bridges are crumbling, roads are deteriorating, railways aren’t working, airports aren’t functioning properly. All of this cannot be fixed with a defense industry. We are no longer living in the 1930s.

The government will make major cuts in social spending

Secondly, the largest item in Germany’s state budget is social spending. 43% of the German budget is allocated to social payments such as pensions for retirees—whose numbers are increasing—the long-term unemployed, students, and special pension rights for mothers. So, social spending in Germany is extremely high. You cannot simultaneously try to rapidly expand the defense industry, make Europe the world’s strongest military power, and maintain these social budgets and the social safety net at the same level. They will have to make cuts. And it is precisely at this point that we will reach the limits of society’s tolerance. Of course, it’s not possible to borrow indefinitely. The money allocated to armament will not generate enough tax revenue to cover the deficits in social spending. This means that there will be cuts in social benefits, or people in Germany—especially retirees—will have to forgo many things they are accustomed to in the coming years.

Borrowing currently seems attractive to the incumbent governments in Europe and America. But they forget that they have to pay substantial interest. This money is not earned; it is borrowed, and high interest must be paid on it. This interest can only be covered by income generated by the economy. And a large part of this income will be spent just to pay this interest. Consequently, this trajectory could lead to a major social crisis in Germany. Germany has not experienced large-scale mass protests in the last 30 years. The German people have always been a satiated, or at least relatively satiated, populace. Here, compared to some European countries, no one is hungry. But let me say this: if care is not taken, this situation can change rapidly within a few years. If Germany does not reorient itself towards the “social” priorities that formed the basis of the social market economy in the past, and instead focuses solely on armament, then the problems we will face will become clearly apparent.

The AfD could be banned by the current establishment parties

Q: I’d like to come to the topic of the AfD… In your opinion, is it still possible for this party to be banned in the future, or will the German elites or the system try to integrate the AfD? Could the party eventually be drawn into the system and perhaps become a governing partner with the CDU? What would need to happen for this? For example, scenarios such as the party splitting by dissociating from figures like Björn Höcke and adopting a more “conformist” line are being discussed. What are your thoughts on this?

A: I can offer you three possible scenarios on this matter. First scenario: Politics continues with a “muddling through” approach. Meaning, problems are patched up with temporary solutions, some things are attempted to be fixed, but they break down again after a while. Managing the situation this way can be sustained for a few more years as long as the money lasts and the public tolerates it. But at some point, this scenario will become unsustainable.

Second scenario: The “Brandmauer” [firewall, meaning a strict refusal to cooperate with the AfD] collapses, and the CDU is forced to enter into a coalition with the AfD. This could happen particularly at the state level. Furthermore, I think a formation like Sahra Wagenknecht’s party could re-emerge, strengthening particularly in East Germany. Even if this doesn’t happen, another similar left-leaning party could emerge. This could also be an answer to your question about whether the AfD will split: the AfD won’t split, but a different party might be born. This new party could, under certain conditions, become a coalition partner with the AfD in states like Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, or Saxony. If this model works, similar developments could occur in other states. This is a very plausible development scenario for Germany within the next 20 years.

The third scenario is this: The AfD could be banned by the current establishment parties or elites. I think such a culture of prohibition is quite possible in Germany; serious fear can be instilled in the public through the fear of Russia or the threat of fascism. German society, due to its historical past, is very sensitive to such fears and could support such a ban. However, other countries will not approach this situation in the same way. If Germany moves towards such a policy of prohibition, it could lose its leadership position in Europe. Because I don’t think other European countries will follow the same path.

German politics awaits a post-Trump US

Q: What will German foreign policy be like in the new era? Relations with the US and Germany’s role within Europe are among the most keenly anticipated and debated topics.

A: German foreign policy is still in an impasse, and the new government doesn’t have much time to decide what to do. With Merz, the world not only gains a new German chancellor, but Europe also gains a new leader. Although this may seem like a somewhat arrogant approach from Germany’s perspective, it is perceived and expressed similarly in other European countries. Hopes are pinned on Germany. To put it simply, steps such as the European Union’s future militarization plans, internal reforms, and gradual disengagement from America can only happen under German leadership.

The UK is no longer in the European Union and does not have the massive budget that Germany will have if it abandons its debt brake [a fiscal rule limiting structural government deficits] in the coming years. France, on the other hand, is in economic decline. Therefore, the burden of European leadership rests on Germany’s shoulders, and Europe must now redefine its own direction. This is now Merz’s responsibility. The real question is: To what extent will he and his new team be able to achieve this? Personally, I have my doubts, but objectively speaking, it is clear that Merz needs to set a direction in three fundamental areas.

The first goal is to completely redefine Germany’s relationship with America. However, this is not as easy as it sounds. For decades, Germany focused more on transatlantic thought—that is, an America-centric approach—than on Europe. Breaking away from America in cultural, civilizational, military, and economic contexts is almost impossible. However, if Europe wants to establish a more autonomous structure and realize the currently targeted vision of becoming a great power, it must do so. Meaning, Europe should become an independent great power alongside America, not subordinate to it. But this will not be easy, as resources may not be sufficient for this goal.

Ideologically, Germany is not ready for this either. When talking about reshaping the transatlantic relationship, it is necessary to emphasize this fact: Germany neither wants to nor can it distance itself from America. Because at the level of civilization, culture, politics, military and security policies—and even historically—it is completely intertwined with America. A large part of the elites in Germany were educated in America; they studied at American universities. Therefore, the prevailing approach in German politics is the expectation that Trump will fail within two years, Democrats will gain a majority in Congress, then two years later Trump will lose power, and a young Biden or a new Obama-like Democratic leader will replace him. This leader will then continue the transatlantic relationship that has existed since 1945. In fact, Germany’s hope and strategy is to invest in this scenario.

That’s why I say Germany’s strategy is contradictory: on the one hand, it aims to be more autonomous, but on the other, it is psychologically unprepared for it. Germany is still waiting, hoping to endure for another two years for Trump to leave the stage, and then hoping everything will return to how it was. Because Germany’s desire is to return to the old “normal,” the old status quo. In reality, Germany is not at all ready to assume a leadership role in Europe. Indeed, the main question is: Will Europe accept this new leadership claim by Germany under Merz? I am quite skeptical about this. The German or European elites have a desire for European leadership under Merz, but this desire may not be realistic.

The second major problem is Russia. Decisive decisions need to be made on this issue now, but the decisions currently being made are heading in completely the wrong direction. Everything is moving towards the possibility of a war with Russia. Here too, Germans and Europeans are largely living in a fantasy world. They believe they have always won for the last 35 years, that Europe is still strong, and that they can defeat Russia. However, I approach this with skepticism. Because Russia is still a great power and is on its way to becoming a great power again. In my opinion, Germany’s policy should not be directed towards such radical militarization, and it should not spend 500 billion euros on defense. Of course, deterrence can be relied upon, that is true. But at the same time—and this is completely lacking—diplomacy must be pursued, one must sit down with Russia at the table, and a compromise must be sought through negotiation. I believe this: A Europe positioned against Russia will never be stable. This should be the fundamental principle. We need a Europe that includes Russia. Constant conflict with Russia further weakens Europe; it divides Europe, just as it did during the Cold War. We need to see this.

The third decisive issue—after the US and Russia—is Germany’s relations with other states, especially with the Global South in general. Germany wants to redefine its foreign policy in this area. However, this will be very difficult as long as Germany only talks about “value-oriented foreign policy” and does not approach the world with a realistic, realpolitik perspective. The Global South, in particular, sides more with Russia than with Europe. At the same time, these countries are striving to form their own power bases and alliances against the West and America. New Eurasian-centered alliances are emerging before our eyes between Russia and China, and Russia and India. Central Asian countries are integrating into Russia’s security pact on the one hand, and China’s “New Silk Road” [Belt and Road Initiative] strategy on the other.

Yes, I believe the German federal government is not in a good position regarding these three main problems, because it has not yet fully grasped these realities. Germans and German politics are still in the euphoria of the victories of the last 35 years, believing that Europe has always won, is morally superior to others, that value-oriented foreign policy must necessarily apply to other countries and continents, and ultimately that America—especially Trump—will be ideologically defeated and everything will return to how it was. But things will not develop this way.

Interview

Why did Trump step back from a decision to launch a new attack on Iran?

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Conflicting statements from the US and Iran regarding the potential resumption of diplomatic negotiations have emerged, while ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have once again brought global energy concerns to the fore.

Addressing these developments on the Harici live broadcast of Strategic Compass, international relations scholar Prof. Dr. Hasan Unal and Alptekin Dursunoglu, journalist, author, and Editor-in-Chief of Yakin Dogu Haber (YDH), evaluated the internal, regional, and strategic dimensions of the conflict. The discussion focused on the shift in Iran’s military doctrine, the political strain within the US administration, the economic vulnerability of Gulf monarchies, and the broader realignments reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Why did Trump step back from a decision to launch a new attack on Iran?

Opening the discussion, Prof. Dr. Hasan Unal offered a sharp critique of the political rhetoric originating from Washington, contrasting executive declarations with the tactical outcomes on the ground. Unal argued that public statements made by former US President Donald Trump increasingly lack analytical consistency, complicating efforts to decipher official US strategy.

“He has reached a point where he tells more lies than the daily meowing of stray cats,” Unal remarked during the broadcast. “I do not know which part of his statements we ought to analyze, but if we evaluate him within a broader framework, it becomes possible to reach certain conclusions.”

Unal described the military confrontation between Washington and Tehran as an uneven cycle of escalation, noting that US forces continue to suffer casualties and incur immense financial costs without altering the strategic baseline. “The situation has effectively transformed into something like a defeated wrestler who never grows tired of wrestling; America repeatedly approaches and confronts Iran, yet the outcome is obvious from the outset,” Unal stated. He added that American military personnel are being deployed into conflict zones where national interests remain obscure: “I am certain that American soldiers there largely believe they have no personal interests at stake… and that it serves at most the interests of Israel.”

Dursunoglu contextualised the current phase of hostilities as part of an extended campaign, comparing the recent clashes to a second round of a broader regional conflict following earlier engagements in 2025. He noted that despite assertive claims from Washington regarding the destruction of Iranian military infrastructure, operational continuity on the Iranian side forced a shift in US messaging.

Reflecting on official declarations from US Central Command (CENTCOM) and executive statements following intensive strikes, Unal highlighted the internal contradictions in Washington’s narrative: “Trump claimed Iranian naval forces were sent to the bottom of the sea, the air force beyond the atmosphere, and the ground forces deep into the magma. Yet suddenly he declared, ‘I have forgiven Iran,’ while CENTCOM figures suggested they had reached ‘target saturation’—as if there was simply nothing left to hit.”

Is Iran insisting on its conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz?

A central focus of the analysis was Iran’s response mechanism following the breakdown of initial ceasefire frameworks. Dursunoglu highlighted a significant structural transition in Tehran’s military posture, moving from traditional reactive containment to proactive deterrence across multiple theatres.

Dursunoglu pointed out that during the escalation, Iran did not restrict its target matrix to immediate points of contact. Instead, Iranian forces conducted strikes against US installations and logistical networks across the region, including facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Oman.

“Iran’s traditional defence doctrine was defensive and based on proportional retaliation,” Dursunoglu explained. “However, after the US halted strikes, Iran proceeded to target assets in Jordan and Kuwait without immediate prior attacks on those specific vectors. This indicates that Iran has begun executing preemptive strikes, effectively adapting its strategic posture.”

Unal underscored the severity of these strikes on regional logistics, noting that Iranian counter-strikes targeted the port of Aqaba and airport infrastructure in Jordan, alongside American operational facilities in the Gulf. “According to the accounts, Iranian forces began hitting American installations in Gulf states and Jordan within minutes of initial strikes, effectively neutralizing the operational depth the US relied upon,” Unal noted.

The operational status of the Strait of Hormuz remains a decisive point of leverage. Under previous draft frameworks negotiated through Omani mediation, administrative oversight of maritime traffic through the Strait was slated to transition to Iran in coordination with regional littoral states. However, subsequent US efforts to establish an independent naval corridor along the Omani coast triggered a fresh wave of Iranian interdictions.

Dursunoglu outlined the ongoing negotiations surrounding the maritime passage, noting that attempts to bypass Iranian oversight proved unviable for commercial shipping. Under the latest proposals under discussion via Omani channels, incoming maritime traffic into the Gulf would pass through Iranian-designated corridors under Iranian authorization, while outgoing traffic would proceed along Omani coastal waters following notification and approval.

“If an agreement is finalized on these terms, it represents an explicit recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz by the US regime,” Dursunoglu said. He noted that while initial terms provided free passage during a temporary 60-day window, long-term frameworks anticipate structured administrative mechanisms for commercial vessels. Unal added: “Whether designated as transit fees, environmental charges, or security provisions, formalizing maritime oversight secures a permanent structural advantage for Tehran.”

Under what conditions will negotiations begin?

The economic ramifications of maritime disruption have also altered the calculations of Gulf export nations. Following attempts by Saudi Arabia to engage Ansar Allah (Houthi) forces in Yemen, retaliatory actions against critical infrastructure—including the Yanbu crude oil pipeline on the Red Sea—severely constrained alternative export routes.

“By drawing Yemeni forces back into active conflict, Saudi Arabia inadvertently placed its secondary export avenues under direct fire,” Unal observed. “The vulnerability of the Yanbu pipeline demonstrates that reliance on the Gulf cannot be bypassed easily, effectively increasing regional dependence on stability within the Strait.”

Beyond the maritime domain, the broadcast addressed heavy Iranian military engagements in northern Iraq, targeting opposition groups including the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), Komala, Pak, and Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK) along the Erbil-Suleimaniyeh axis.

Dursunoglu and Unal noted that cross-border strikes destroyed substantial ammunition depots established near border regions, followed by reported ground operations conducted by specialized Iranian units.

“Iranian special forces executed targeted ground operations across the border,” Dursunoglu stated, pointing to secondary explosions captured in operational footage as evidence of extensive pre-positioned armaments.

Unal noted that these operations underscored the strategic limitations of non-state actors aligned with Washington: “The expectations placed on armed factions in northern Iraq collapsed when confronted with direct military pressure. The narrative that these groups could serve as an internal wedge against Tehran proved to be a costly miscalculation for US planners.”

Reports indicating the start of a repositioning of US personnel and heavy military equipment from bases in Iraq and the Gulf toward Jordan and Israel were identified as a direct consequence of this vulnerability. “US forces are consolidating toward Jordan and Israel because their facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait sustained structural operational damage,” Dursunoglu observed. “When a state can no longer defend its forward command centers—such as the 5th Fleet infrastructure in Bahrain—it is forced to retreat to secondary defensive perimeters.”

How effective is the pressure from Gulf countries for negotiations?

Concluding the evaluation, Unal and Dursunoglu examined the broader diplomatic landscape, focusing on security dialogues among regional powers, including Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Both analysts agreed that any sustainable security architecture in the Middle East must incorporate Iran rather than seek its exclusion.

“How can you construct a new regional order by excluding the very nation that demonstrated the capacity to neutralize external military dominance?” Dursunoglu questioned. “An architecture that relies on Western guarantees or Israeli alignment fails to address the underlying security dynamics of the region.”

Unal reflected on the historical trajectories of Turkish foreign policy, criticizing past ideological approaches that fuelled regional fragmentation and sect-based antagonisms. He noted that realpolitik dictates close functional coordination between Ankara and Tehran despite historical differences.

“Iran’s resistance ultimately prevented the imposition of a security framework dictated entirely by external actors,” Unal concluded. “Responsible analysis requires recognizing that stability in the Middle East cannot be achieved through foreign intervention or regional fragmentation, but through direct, autonomous security coordination among the region’s core nations.”

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Interview

“Capitalism does not require a free social order”

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We sat down with the German philosopher Michael Quante—known to readers through his work The Uncompromising Marx (German: Der unversöhnte Marx), published in recent years by Yordam Kitap—to discuss his book, the intersecting crises currently gripping Germany, and the interpretive tools philosophy can offer to make sense of a world in turmoil.

Michael Quante completed his doctorate on the philosophy of Hegel at the Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, where he currently serves as a faculty member in the Department of Philosophy. He is the Director of the Centrum für Bioethik (Center for Bioethics) and a board member of the Centre for Advanced Studies in Bioethics. Furthermore, Quante has held editorial positions at Ethical Theory and Moral Practice and Hegel-Studien. He has authored numerous books and articles, with a particular focus on German Idealism (Hegel and Marx), action theory, ethics, and biomedical ethics.

Ferhan Bayır: We are living in strange times! People can easily imagine that capitalism will bring about the end of the world, yet they cannot imagine the end of capitalism. Why does the political anxiety lurking in the subconscious of the masses fail to elevate itself into a political consciousness?

Michael Quante:

My diagnosis is somewhat different. I believe we are currently experiencing a profound crisis of democracy, particularly within Western democratic societies, and bearing witness to the erosion of the Enlightenment. We are in an era of Counter-Enlightenment. This is inextricably bound up with nationalism, identity politics, and cultural antagonisms. However, capitalism is perfectly capable of coexisting with these reactionary currents; the profit mechanisms—driven by vast financial resources that serve not the public, but rather the interests of corporations and select cliques—remain entirely insulated from this friction. This is not a crisis of capitalism; it is a crisis of the free, emancipatory social order. Capitalism does not require a free social order in order to function. I do not believe capitalism is weakening at present. Rather, I think capitalism is currently revealing its ugly face on a global scale.

F.B.: On the other hand, given that Marx has been at the very center of contemporary debates since the 2008 crisis, how do you interpret the glaring absence of discussions regarding alternative systems to capitalism? Is it not a paradox to live in an era where Marx is constantly debated, yet which remains entirely devoid of utopia?

Quante:

Marx has been discovered—or rediscovered—as a contemporary thinker precisely because of these crises. Yet, what is visibly lacking today is the existence of a vast, unified political movement organized upon the foundation of Marx’s critique of capitalism. We see interest at an intellectual level, and isolated political factions where Marx continues to live on. But the idea of mobilizing politically on a societal or global scale simply does not exist.

Add to this the increasingly complex communication and information networks generated by new media. This dynamic causes debates to endlessly circulate within small, hermetic bubbles, inside their own echo chambers. These discussions do not enable people to cultivate a global consciousness regarding fundamental problems and conflicts. Accompanied by a concurrent nationalist turn, the people affected by these very processes are pitted against one another; they fail to organize themselves as part of a larger, cohesive movement.

Marx’s intellectual relevance remains visible to certain segments of society. Many love to quote Marx; but very few actually read him. He is treated almost like a Church Father. However, the project of organizing and synthesizing social processes through a cohesive philosophical-political worldview is no longer functional.

“Marx relies on revolution, whereas Hegel relies on reform. They are diametrically opposed at the level of tactics and strategy.”

F.B.: Your book is described as an attempt to reconstruct Marxist philosophy within the Hegelian tradition, framing it as both a critical and an anthropological approach. Especially after the Second World War, numerous thinkers in Germany and France attempted to reunite Marx and Hegel. In what specific ways does your interpretation of the relationship between Hegel and Marx diverge from these earlier approaches?

Quante:

What I am attempting to do situates itself firmly within the tradition of Western Marxism. That is correct. Where my approach consistently advances the discourse is by placing the tradition of philosophical anthropology forcefully at the center. It involves uniting Marx’s early conception of the human being with his critique of capitalism, while simultaneously integrating certain theorems and thought patterns from contemporary systematic philosophy into this framework. I believe this precise combination is what was previously absent.

We had Analytical Marxism, in which the Hegelian tradition played absolutely no role. There was Hegelian Marxism, which gravitated toward the early writings. Then there was Structuralism, which concerned itself predominantly with the late Marx. And, of course, there was the purportedly scientific worldview embedded within Orthodox Marxist thought. My objective is to synthesize the finest elements of all these traditions. I am pursuing two distinct aims here.

The first is to genuinely understand Marx better; in this regard, I operate as a Marx scholar. The second is to understand the present better through the conceptual tools of Marx’s philosophy. These are two entirely different objectives. In this book, I offer both. In other books I have written on Marx, I function much more strictly as a scholar. But the message I wish to convey in this book is this: examine this thinker carefully; we can learn a great deal from him in order to better comprehend the world.

I always say this: you will not find ready-made prescriptive solutions in Marx; you must develop them yourself. Marx is not a Church Father; he is a critical philosopher.

F.B.: How should we interpret the fact that whenever Marx becomes the central figure of debate, interest in Hegel simultaneously surges? Is Hegel an unavoidable waystation for deepening Marx’s ideas? Or, as Althusser suggested, is the return to Hegel an attempt to tame Marx’s radicalism?

Quante:

These are two different questions. Let me state this first: I am also a Hegel scholar, and I follow a parallel path with Hegel as I do with Marx. On the one hand, as a Hegel scholar, I am developing an interpretation that includes new dimensions distinct from traditional readings. On the other hand, I deploy Hegelian concepts in systematic debates, arguing that Hegel, too, is a thinker with whom one can think and work contemporaneously. So, for me, these are two foundational reference points—thinkers I both research and utilize as conceptual arsenals for doing my own philosophy.

The second question pertains to the relationship between Hegel and Marx. In Marxism-Leninism, Hegel is viewed merely as a precursor figure; to foreground him too much is to deviate from the official interpretation of Marx. Conversely, in orthodox Hegel scholarship, Marx is often dismissed as someone who fundamentally misinterpreted Hegel’s core philosophical insights. In both paradigms, Hegel and Marx are positioned as diametrically opposed poles. I find this unconvincing, because there are profoundly strong Hegelian elements embedded within Marx’s thought. The relationship between them is far more complex.

That being said, there are also fundamental differences between them. One of the most critical is this: Hegel believed that bourgeois society—and by extension, capitalism—could be integrated into a socially rational order. Marx, however, believed it had to be abolished. We are looking at a very deep schism here. From a political standpoint, this corresponds to the divide between a social market economy and left-socialist visions. Thus, these two philosophers effectively become the namesakes for two entirely divergent social models.

Another issue concerns political activism. Marx relies on revolution, whereas Hegel relies on reform. They are diametrically opposed at the level of tactics and strategy as well. For this reason, they have always represented two distinct projects within the Left; at times, they have even symbolized the demarcation between the “Left” and the “non-Left,” which is to say, the antagonism between a bourgeois theory of society and a leftist theory of society. But it is time to move past these impasses.

Today, an intelligent left-wing politics cannot be derived exclusively from Marx, nor exclusively from Hegel. They are merely sources of inspiration. To formulate a responsible politics, we require other thinkers, other scientific disciplines, and other orientations. All these internal debates within the Left morph into an endless war waged over the legacy of great thinkers. Consequently, rather than building solidarity through collective political action, this dynamic spawns countless splintered factions. I believe we must abandon this habit and ask the essential question: With which philosophical arguments can we organize a good, socially and normatively sound politics?

“For Marx, capitalism is wrong because it is based on a false conception of life, not because it is a flawed system of distribution.”

F.B.: You make a striking assertion in your book: “Marx’s critique of political economy is not a theory of justice.” Could you elaborate on this view?

Quante:

Yes, this is very closely linked to the distinction between social democracy and socialist visions—a divide present in Hegel and Marx, and generally across the Left. Marx read the first party program of the SPD [Social Democratic Party of Germany] in 1875 and ruthlessly critiqued it. In his critique of social democracy, he argues that they view the problem of justice under capitalism purely as a matter of wealth distribution, and thus, they seek the solution solely in redistribution. For Marx, this analysis is not nearly deep enough. The true pathology of capitalism is human alienation. This alienation afflicts both the capitalist elite and the impoverished worker in equal measure. He demands not a redistribution within the existing social order, but the total transformation of the social order itself.

Thus, the divergence that can be read through Hegel and Marx resurfaces within Marxism itself. In the Analytical Marxist tradition—partly under the influence of John Rawls—there is an attempt to reconstruct Marx’s critique of capitalism as a theory of justice. However, this cannot be seriously maintained unless one deliberately ignores the anthropological dimensions of Marx’s thought and his critique of Hegel.

Because, for Marx, capitalism is wrong because it is based on a false conception of life, not because it is a flawed system of distribution. He would not have opposed the idea of a different redistribution between rich and poor; but he would have insisted that this is merely treating a symptom. Even if everyone were rendered perfectly equal within capitalism, alienation would persist. Marx’s core critique of social democracy is precisely that they lose sight of this radical anthropological utopia.

F.B.: We live in an era rife with innumerable injustices. We face distributional injustice fueled by profound economic inequality; on the other hand, we are witnessing an epoch of legal injustices where fundamental rights and freedoms are suspended, even in countries with deep-rooted constitutional traditions. At a time when we need a theory of justice more than ever, how can Marx help us?

Quante:

Marx can, of course, help with questions of justice; because his critique of political economy clarifies why capital accumulates, why it monopolizes, and why political intervention has lost its efficacy due to the private ownership of capital. Real power no longer resides in political institutions. All of this can be reconstructed perfectly well using Marx’s analysis.

However, there is another dimension to Marx: the capitalist world order devastates nature and strips humanity of its capacity to grasp its own life as a meaningful whole. The devastation of nature is essentially the “green Marx”; this is the ecological problem. It is no longer merely a matter of distributive justice; it is also about utilizing resources without irreparably damaging the natural world.

The problem of meaning, meanwhile, is addressed by the theory of alienation. It is worth noting here: earlier, we mentioned identity politics, esoteric trends, and the resurgence of nationalist and religious interpretations of the world. These are all symptoms of a deficiency. They arise because it has become increasingly difficult for people to conceptualize their lives as meaningful and successful within their everyday social practices.

This is not merely an issue of material resources. If you look at quality-of-life research, whether a person considers their life “successful” or “meaningful” does not directly correlate with wealth. Much deeper anthropological questions come into play here. In Marx, it is possible to glean insights into these questions from other parts of his corpus, and these extend far beyond distribution and its optimization. Ultimately, it boils down to how humanity wishes to relate to its own existence and to nature, and the categories through which it defines the “good life.”

F.B.: So, you disagree with the view held by some thinkers that Marx lacks an ethical philosophy. How do you interpret the moral dimension of Marx’s critique of capitalism?

Quante:

First of all, we must acknowledge this: during Marx’s time, there was a highly heterogeneous intellectual current in Europe criticizing the ascending bourgeois society. This movement critiqued capitalism using strictly moral concepts. Marx found this approach unconvincing for a variety of reasons. According to him, the critique of capitalism must be grounded not in normative interpretations, but in the rigorous analysis of economic structures. This is the precise meaning of the famous eleventh thesis: “The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways; the point is to change it.”

That being said, the critique of capitalism that Marx develops through economic analysis also harbors an implicit ethical dimension. That is to say, his critique fundamentally carries an ethical orientation. Marx does not believe that capitalism can be critiqued in purely economic terms; for him, the economic critique ultimately rests on the following question: Can human beings lead a good and meaningful life within these institutions or not? This is an ethical question, not an economic one. Yet, Marx utilizes this not as his starting point, but as the implicit guiding principle of his economic critique.

Alongside Hegel, Marx is a fierce critic of the moral philosophy of his era (particularly that of Kant and Fichte). Through Hegel, he is far closer to the Aristotelian ethical tradition. This is an ethics of the good life, not an ethics of duty and justice. Therefore, a shift in orientation occurs. In this sense, Marx, much like Hegel, creates a synthesis between the Kantian idea of autonomy and the Aristotelian idea of the polis.

For this reason, I prefer to speak of an “ethical Marx” rather than a “moral Marx”; the critique of morality in both Hegel and Marx is exceedingly harsh. What is meant by “morality” here is the Kantian and Fichtean conception of goodwill—formal, a priori, independent of experience, and profoundly non-anthropological.

But that is a separate topic entirely.

FB: Another pillar of this debate extends into contemporary politics. How do you respond to the commentary that, over the last fifty years, left-wing parties have neglected political morality and ceded numerous issues of freedom to the far right? Particularly during the pandemic, how do you interpret the fact that left-wing parties were largely demanding state restrictions, while right-wing parties objected to these measures in the name of individual liberty?

Quante:

Let me answer by returning to a comment you made at the very beginning. I am discussing the philosophy of Marx here, not Marxist philosophy. There is a slogan I frequently use at conferences: “We must rescue Marx from the rubble of Marxism.” Because, beginning with Engels, Marx’s thought was flattened into a single, unidirectional trajectory.

Distinct branches formed within Marxism. One of them is the line that dictates: “We no longer do philosophy, we do science; we do not preach morality, we elucidate economic laws.” According to this logic, anyone who fails to adhere to this is not a Marxist, but a petty-bourgeois intellectual. Such an approach rejects moral and ethical debate outright, deeming it sufficient to speak exclusively of economic interests. This is not Marx; it is a specific positivist strain entrenched within Marxism-Leninism.

Alongside this, there is the Trotskyist and Luxemburgist tradition, which relies on the spontaneous organization of the masses, possessing a rather anarchistic character. In stark contrast, the Bolshevik tradition centers on centralized, state-driven planned political intervention. Consequently, while some leftist factions view the state as the sole potent instrument of political agency, the anarchist left argues that the state is fundamentally an apparatus of bourgeois domination. Thus, a schism forms within the Left between the “pro-state” and “anti-state” camps.

The less left-wing parties address the question of a meaningful life, the wider the vacuum they leave behind. This void is subsequently filled by religion, nationalism, and various esoteric movements, which offer people the sense of meaning sorely lacking in their everyday lives. At this juncture, the Left must urgently generate a comprehensive educational and cultural politics.

Let me share another slogan I use frequently: “We must not surrender the concept of Heimat [homeland/belonging] to the Right.” Because we, posing as Marxist economists, refuse to speak about such matters. This is a colossal cultural-political error. Thinkers like Gramsci or Walter Benjamin understood this. However, the classical Left remains fractured into internal factions, each fiercely battling the other over trivial fragments.

From Engels onward, the political ideal within Marxism frequently devolved into a top-down authoritarian model. This is entirely incompatible with the reality that Marx was, at heart, a philosopher.

“We initiated world wars twice driven by imperialist motivations, and twice we devastated Germany and Europe.”

F.B.: At the beginning of your book, you mention that core capitalist countries are no longer able to export their problems to peripheral countries. Today, Germany is also mired in a deep economic and social crisis. What path will Germany take? How can it solve these problems?

Quante:

What is happening in Germany right now is a severe crisis; indeed, we are facing a democratic crisis reminiscent of the interwar period. There are immense uncertainties. Geopolitical power balances are shifting. Many people have lost faith in political institutions. There are people who are disoriented and plagued by anxiety.

In the face of fears regarding downward social mobility and general unease, people rarely respond with universal left-wing values; instead, they default to exclusionary, nationalist reactions. That is the core problem. Germany is experiencing struggles economically and as a society, but this is the problem of a country ranked among the top five economies worldwide; it is not a scenario of total collapse. The true measure requires a comparison with the Global South.

The fundamental issue here is that the people in Germany no longer actively defend democratic institutions and the values of an open society. They have begun to view them not as principles to be fiercely protected, but as things that can be casually risked. Furthermore, there is severe income inequality in Germany; however, the standard of living for the vast majority would still be considered remarkably high when juxtaposed with the nations of the Global South.

Therefore, the crisis in Germany is not fundamentally an economic collapse, but rather a fading identification with democracy and a lingering hope of returning to the “good old days.” People want to believe that everything can become great again without them having to change themselves. This is deeply irrational.

In addition to this, there are, of course, ecological problems; but these are global, not national, issues. They are not uniquely German. A specifically German peculiarity is that the country is now forced to take the issue of geopolitical military alliances seriously. My generation believed this could be safely ignored; however, it must now be painfully re-debated.

Amidst this uncertainty, many people are searching for quick and simple answers. Yet, we must seriously consider this question: Do we wish to defend ourselves against aggressors? If Europe intends to preserve the European way of life, it must decide whether or not it will defend itself.

Germany’s post-war society, sheltered under the protective umbrella of NATO, assumed it no longer needed to contemplate these matters, styling itself as a pacifist society. This posture is no longer sustainable.

On the domestic social plane, conflicts must be resolved: there are acute issues of income distribution and justice. However, these do not constitute a class war; such metaphors are misguided. Moreover, none of this can be solved purely at the nation-state level. In Europe, social policies remain confined to the national level, which is a total failure of scale. There is an urgent need for European-wide social policy. By the same token, international justice and global health policies are imperative.

The world has become a far more aggressive and troubled place today. Consequently, German society is engulfed in a state of disorientation. The grand narratives that held true for so long—the welfare state, the compromise between capital and labor, the vow that “never again will war emanate from German soil,” the export-driven model, and the open society—are currently collapsing. This leaves people grappling with a profound question: What are the values truly worth living for?

There are no clear answers to this question, and so people gravitate toward the simplistic answers peddled by the Right; these answers are inhumane, but they are seductive to those unwilling to engage in complex thought. The allure lies in the promise: “You don’t need to change anything; we can restore everything to the way it was.” But the “old days” were not good. That is sheer romanticism.

F.B.: Several historians and thinkers describe Germany as a country that has long been adrift in uncertainty, continuously searching for itself and struggling to find its identity. As a German philosopher, how do you define Germany?

Quante:

We initiated world wars twice, driven by imperialist motivations, and twice we devastated Germany and Europe. This forms a profound part of the biographical identity of my generation—those born after ’45 and those slightly older than me: the absolute conviction that Germany must never do such a thing again, and must never become so powerful that it turns aggressive once more.

At the same time, thanks to NATO and the “Economic Miracle,” the bloody wars were externalized to the Global South and waged largely by the Americans themselves. Especially with the advent of ecological crises, financial meltdowns, and similar processes from the 2000s onward, massive waves of migration occurred.

What these migrations signify is this: populations with absolutely no prospects in the Global South are arriving in Europe on boats, putting immense strain on our systems, and creating a sense of disruption. In 2015, this sparked a massive wave of humanitarian goodwill in Germany; three years later, however, that attitude had soured.

We must view this through a broader lens. For far too long, we lived under the illusion that others were quietly solving the “uncomfortable” problems for us, allowing us to posture as “democrats who do everything morally right.” Now, we are discovering that democracy is an exceedingly fragile construct. Democracy does not begin in the parliament; it begins in educational processes—it starts in kindergarten.

This is why I always say: if Marx were alive today, before addressing the proletariat, he would visit kindergartens and schools. Because we are losing our youth in the first ten years of their lives. We are failing to instill the right attitudes in them. The framework for this is found not in Marx’s critique of capitalism, but in his philosophical anthropology.

F.B.: In a speech critiquing the EU, Alain Badiou stated, “Personally, I have long advocated for the unification of France and Germany… A single country, a single federal state, two sovereign languages. It is perfectly possible… thus, philosophy would become truly French-German philosophy, and perhaps experience its most glorious era.” Is there any real possibility of this coming to pass, or is it merely nostalgic yearning?

Quante:

Twenty years ago, I co-authored an interdisciplinary book with nine colleagues. In it, we argued that Europe must transcend being merely a free-movement market and establish a genuine European welfare state. We asserted that without a common social state and robust European-level social institutions, Europe would eventually fracture under the weight of national egoisms.

I am also in total agreement with Jürgen Habermas: if we wish to lead a free and emancipatory life, Europe must evolve into federal components; we cannot settle for a European Parliament structured solely around strategic alliances driven by national egoism. National sovereignty must be transferred to the European level.

The critical question here is: What values and norms does Europe actually represent? This is not at all clear; in fact, it is remarkably ambiguous. There is no shared consensus on values. There is only a common enemy. And that is a profound problem. Suddenly, we find ourselves with multiple “enemies”: Russia, China, and the United States. This situation breeds massive disorientation and a paralyzing fear of downward mobility. In such circumstances, people become significantly more aggressive. That is the predicament.

The only antidote to this is education and enlightenment.

F.B.: Finally, one last question on a highly contemporary issue. In your book, you underscore alienation as a foundational concept in Marx. To overcome the alienation induced by capitalist exchange relations, you invoke Marx’s concept of human recognition (Anerkennung). In the face of today’s artificial intelligence technologies, has the struggle for human recognition become even more arduous? Or does it also present new possibilities for transcending alienation?

Quante:

At present, there is no such thing as “artificial intelligence.” There are only highly complex computational programs; they are not intelligent.

Every major technology carries certain potentials, and these must be controlled. Technology is never entirely neutral; it harbors inherent risks, and it can be wielded both for human emancipation and for subjugation. This represents the external, instrumental dimension of technology.

I believe we should not underestimate the current capabilities of artificial intelligence, but we must equally refrain from demonizing it. That is philosophically flawed. Moreover, the following question is paramount: Should the means of production for such globally networked information technologies remain in private hands, or should they be placed under societal control?

That is a profoundly Marxist question. If we possess globally networked information technologies, they must fall under public sovereignty, not be left in the hands of technocrats or socially detached specialists.

Technology is highly beneficial for certain purposes; it liberates us from burdens. But if misused, it can be extraordinarily dangerous. This holds true even for a hammer—it applies to the simplest of tools. Everything depends entirely upon how it is used.

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Interview

Journalist Lily Lynch: “Trump is becoming a burden for the right, particularly in Europe”

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Foreign affairs writer Lily Lynch discusses the shifting political landscape of Central Europe and the Balkans in this interview with Harici. Lynch, whose work frequently appears in the New StatesmanNew Left Review, and The Baffler, addresses a range of topics from Hungary’s recent elections to Serbia’s complex foreign policy maneuvers. A recipient of a 2025 LA Press Club award, she examines the “clarifying effect” of the Ukraine war on regional leadership and the evolving nature of right-wing populism across the continent. The conversation offers a detailed analysis of the challenges facing the European right and the persistent geopolitical tensions in the region.

I would like to begin with Hungary, specifically with the recent electoral victory of the right-wing populist Tisza Party, much like Viktor Orbán and Fidesz, and of its leader, Péter Magyar. What does this victory signify for Hungary’s future? The deep corruption and abuses of power involving Orbán’s circle had also received coverage in the international press. The fact that the country’s three major parties at the top of the electoral list are all right-wing paints a rather bleak picture.

I think that Magyar’s victory demonstrates several things. One is that right-wing ideas are still broadly popular in Hungary. The fact that Magyar is not so different from Orban on issues like immigration demonstrates that. So right-wing politics were not defeated in this election; instead, it is clear now that they are very much entrenched in Hungary and do reflect the sentiments of the public.

At the same time, I think there’s a particular brand of right-wing populism that is starting to cause some fatigue. This is a sort of clownish, personality-driven Trumpian populism that is wedded to Zionism, and which Orban embodied as well. I think Magyar’s success hints at a desire for a more sober and serious right-wing politics, decoupled from MAGA populism, and perhaps somewhat less revisionist: a politics that are anti-immigration and conservative but also more content with the status quo.

The electoral result also suggests that Trump’s brand has grown increasingly toxic, and that Orban’s choice to embrace Trump–going so far as having JD Vance campaign for him ahead of the election–hurt more than it helped. Trump is becoming a burden for the right, particularly in Europe. After Trump’s threats towards Greenland, no one in Europe can say they support Trump and also support respect for sovereignty. Of course, this is exactly what Orban once preached, as he fashioned himself a sovereigntist. In the end, it appeared that he only opposed encroachments from Brussels, but gave Trump’s America a pass.

At the same time, Orban’s deliberate stoking of the culture war ended up producing diminishing returns for him. Without decent economic performance, and with so much perceived corruption, his culture war crusades on issues such as gender simply were not enough to keep him afloat. In addition, Orban’s re-traditionalization efforts failed. The pro-natality policies he put in place were expensive but did little to boost the birth rate. Church attendance under Orban was even lower than it was during the socialist period, when religion was frowned upon by the authorities.

It may also be useful to touch on Serbia. The government led by Aleksandar Vučić appears to be pursuing what is often described as a “multi-vector foreign policy.” On the one hand, there is the prospect of EU membership; on the other, there are Serbia’s historically rooted ties with Russia. Yet in the course of the war in Ukraine, how should we interpret the statements coming from Moscow, particularly the strong reaction led by the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) to alleged arms deliveries to Kyiv via third parties? How sustainable is this condition of being a “swing state”?

There was a time when Vučić managed Serbia’s complex geopolitical position relatively well. At the height of the Vučić era, which was already a decade ago now, Serbia had relations with Russia, China, Turkey, the US, and many countries of the Global South that are members of the Non-aligned Movement–all while remaining a candidate for EU membership. But February 2022 changed everything for him. A major war in Europe–no longer confined to Donbass–meant that he was suddenly under much more pressure to harmonize Serbia’s policy with that of other European countries. In practice this meant things like imposing sanctions on Russia, and by voting in lockstep with EU and NATO member countries on resolutions on Ukraine in UN General Assembly votes.

It is true of course that Vucic was permitting indirect Serbian arms sales to Ukraine, which bought him a lot of credibility in Western capitals. With the Russians, meanwhile, he made excuses: He claimed that he was under a tremendous amount of pressure, and basically could not tell the West “no”. For a while I think the Russians accepted this, if grudgingly. But then as the arms sales to Ukraine didn’t stop after Vucic said they would, there were strong reactions in Russia.

I don’t think any of these actors, with the possible exception of China, trust Vucic anymore. For a long time, Vucic was all things to all people. A great example was in a UNGA vote Serbia voted in favor of a resolution on Ukraine, then Vucic immediately issued a statement saying that it had been “a mistake” and that they’d meant to vote against it. This was a deliberate strategy of ambiguity: which message to believe? The actual vote or Vucic’s statement to the press. He was masterful at this, for years: give one message to Washington, one to Moscow, and one to Brussels. I think you can sustain that kind of ambiguity for a time, and perhaps even a long time, but war has a clarifying effect. At a certain point, you just have to choose.

Vucic has also been one of the losers of the second Trump administration. This is the exact opposite of what he had hoped: he expected Serbia to be a natural ally to Trump. Instead, Vucic has been rebuffed by the administration, and repeatedly. Vucic stayed faithful to his mutli-vector foreign policy with the expectation that Trump would come to power and immediately end the war in Ukraine. I think he really believed that would happen–that Trump would end the war in Ukraine immediately. If that happened, Vucic’s job would have been a lot easier: there would be far less pressure on him from the EU, for one. So long story short, two recent developments have imperiled his multi-vector approach. First, the full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022, and second, Trump winning a second term, and subsequent ambivalent relations with the White House.

It may also be worthwhile here to address the issue of Kosovo, which, as is well known, has in recent years become a fault line that periodically simmers and boils over. In the December elections in Kosovo, Albin Kurti once again returned to the office of prime minister. Would it be possible for you to share some information on this, or perhaps your observations and/or firsthand impressions? It seems likely that this is a place we will be discussing in the years ahead.

Albin Kurti has staked his career in part on his opposition to the creation of something called “the Association of Serbian Municipalities” of “Community of Serbian Municipalities” in northern Kosovo. Northern Kosovo is home to a Serbian-majority population who absolutely do not recognize Kurti’s government as legitimate and largely answer to Belgrade, though they often feel left on their own by the Serbian government as well. According to the 2013 Brussels Agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, the government of Kosovo has to create something called the Association/Community of Serbian Municipalities, a sort of thin layer of sovereignty or self-government that is nonetheless subordinate to Prishtina. Meanwhile, Serbia would extract itself from the north, ceding control of it to the government of Kosovo.

This has always been hugely controversial in Kosovo, as some believe it will create the conditions for eventual Serbian secession. Kurti remaining in office effectively means that there will be little progress made on this front. This is something that has made Western capitals very frustrated with Kurti, and he was under EU sanctions until last year.

However tense the current status quo is, I disagree with those who say a return to full-scale war is imminent or inevitable. There are something like 4,500 peacekeeping troops in Kosovo as a part of KFOR, NATO’s Kosovo peacekeeping force. That said, I am sure there will be the occasional flare up of localized violence. This currently happens every 1-2 years. But I highly doubt that these spasms of violence will lead to a full-scale war. Despite all the acrimonious feelings and distrust, there is little appetite for another big war in the Balkans by any side.

Finally, I am curious about your assessment, in broader terms, of what has given rise to the right-wing populist wave across Europe and/or how it is likely to shape Europe’s future overall. The supposedly “anti-establishment” profile, as in the case of Giorgia Meloni, either ends up directly submitting to the establishment, that is, to the Brussels bureaucracy, or produces state structures of astonishing corruption. This is a genuinely compelling issue, and I would be very interested in your views.

My answer about what has given rise to the right-wing populist wave is not at all original. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this wave was preceded by the 2007-2008 financial crisis, which led to an overall crisis in faith in institutions, experts, and in liberalism. This was fertile ground for a populist backlash against “elites”. Of course, these anti-establishment politicians ride to power on promises to “drain the swamp” or fight the powers that be, and then turn around and adopt very conventional policies once in office. Or, in Orban’s case, they may actually break with established consensus, but turn out even more corrupt than the liberal “elites” they rail against. There is always a rhetoric-policy gap in politics, but it’s especially pronounced on the populist right.

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