CDU unrest raises doubts over Merz’s future as chancellor

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing mounting unrest within his Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with party figures reportedly beginning to push for a change in leadership.

According to Der Spiegel, frustration is growing among influential party members who believe Merz has repeatedly failed to capitalize on political opportunities.

One senior party figure quoted by the magazine said: “The ball is sitting on the penalty spot, the opposing goalkeeper is nowhere in sight, yet Merz somehow manages to score an own goal.”

Der Spiegel added: “It appears there is little hope left within the CDU that Merz can climb out of the hole he has dug for himself.”

After speaking with the chancellor’s allies and figures from the CDU leadership circle, the magazine said the interviews painted the picture of a party that has lost confidence in Merz.

“This is unprecedented in post-war German history. When CDU Chancellor Ludwig Erhard was removed by his own party in 1966, the process unfolded slowly and gradually over several months. In Merz’s case, however, it has been possible to watch his authority collapse within just a few days. And the person dragging him down is not his party colleagues, but himself.”

The CDU has already been on edge after trailing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in opinion polls for months. The situation has now been compounded by what Der Spiegel described as the “Merz fiasco”.

According to the magazine, even within the CDU’s highest leadership circles, almost no one would now bet that the chancellor will remain in office until Christmas.

According to Politico, public criticism of Merz has come primarily from figures who were removed from government during the cabinet reshuffle.

The leadership issue, however, has not yet been raised openly because of the summer recess.

Elections are due in three eastern German states: Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Polling points to a disastrous outcome for the CDU.

One prominent Christian Democrat wrote: “Things I once thought unimaginable are happening. Merz is in a tunnel; he can no longer reach the party. Everything is over.”

The same CDU figure believes Merz will either have to throw in the towel or be forced to resign by 21 September at the latest.

That date refers to the Monday following the twin elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The collapse in confidence surrounding Merz has followed this chronology. On Saturday, 18 July, parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn resigned.

Just three days earlier, Spahn had announced through the Bild newspaper that he and his husband had welcomed a son born through a surrogate mother in the US.

For Merz, this presented a completely unexpected opportunity. He had never trusted Spahn but had hoped he could keep him under control after becoming chancellor.

In recent months, however, the parliamentary group leader had become one of the coalition’s central figures by taking advantage of what the article describes as Merz’s weak leadership.

Nothing moved without him. Spahn had effectively become the CDU’s second most powerful figure.

The chancellor was unhappy with that situation, but Spahn’s resignation suddenly removed the problem on its own. Merz had already been planning a cabinet reshuffle for the autumn.

The chancellor is also reported to have been dissatisfied with several cabinet members and, according to the article, to have displayed a certain “arrogance” in meetings with subordinates.

For example, during an executive board meeting in Rhineland-Palatinate, a letter became public stating that the CDU parliamentary group in the state legislature had cancelled its meeting with Merz because “the minimum level of mutual trust and respect” no longer existed. According to the article, such an insult had never occurred before.

Participants at last week’s Presidium and Executive Committee meetings all noticed the tense atmosphere.

Some believe the CDU leader has “buried himself deep inside his own tunnel” and “is no longer even aware of how serious his situation has become”.

According to later accounts from the group, Rhineland-Palatinate Minister-President Gordon Schnieder even accused the chancellor of lacking professionalism.

What happens next? According to Der Spiegel, the party leadership is avoiding that question. No scenarios are being discussed, even in small groups.

“They do not want to invite disaster. Especially now, when everyone is looking forward to the summer break. Right now, nobody needs a change of chancellor. But nobody believes Merz still has a future as head of government.”

After the elections in eastern Germany, some argue that Merz should be forced to resign.

According to the report, if three experienced state premiers were to advise the chancellor to step down for the good of both the country and the party, Merz would almost certainly comply, or at least that is what his team believes. Even so, they are not entirely certain.

Following such a resignation, North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wust is expected to step in. He is the only figure mentioned as a potential successor to Merz.

CSU leader Markus Soeder is reportedly considered unacceptable to the CDU, while the idea that CSU Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt could become chancellor is described as absurd. As a result, the task would fall to Wust.