European intelligence chiefs divide over risk of Russian attack

The intelligence services of the three Baltic states, Sweden, and the Czech Republic hold differing assessments regarding a potential Russian attack.

These warnings followed statements to parliament by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who said intelligence assessments indicated that Russia could mount an attack against NATO territory with drones or missiles in the coming months as part of efforts to prove that “Article 5 is theoretical rather than practical.”

French President Emmanuel Macron also described Tusk’s warnings as “logical and well documented,” and summoned party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates to an urgent meeting in Paris on Friday.

Among other topics, the meeting addressed intelligence information concerning the growing threat from Russia.

In separate interviews with The Guardian newspaper, three European intelligence officials shared their views on the potential threat that could emanate from Moscow.

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, suggested that alongside increased drone activity, a small-scale incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia could also form part of the Kremlin’s plans.

“This is possible. It could involve a limited attack, false-flag provocations, or a large-scale influence campaign,” Koudelka said in a rare interview at the agency’s headquarters in Prague.

Stating that this scenario could unfold in “months, not years,” Koudelka added that “many people are doing their utmost to ensure it does not happen.”

Officials in the three Baltic countries bordering Russian territory, however, are acting more cautiously regarding the prospect of an invasion or another serious escalation.

They cite the strain on Moscow’s resources in Ukraine and warn that exaggerating the likelihood of an attack could play into the Kremlin’s hands.

Normunds Mežviets, director general of the Latvian State Security Service (VDD), said in an interview at the agency’s headquarters in Riga: “We see no indications that an attack is imminent.”

While Mežviets acknowledged signs that Moscow is preparing to take more decisive steps in Europe, he stated that it remains unclear whether these plans are merely part of a destabilisation strategy:

“Whether they have direct and concrete plans, or whether this is simply part of their general efforts to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society, remains an open question.”

Having criticised Western Europe for years for being soft on Russia, Baltic politicians now find themselves in a curious position: fearing that talk of an imminent invasion could harm their societies and economies, they are telling certain Western leaders to remain calm in their public messaging.

On Saturday, Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, condemned the recent “social media panic” regarding a potential attack, writing on X:

“If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will state it clearly. Until then, stay calm, carry on with your lives, and support Ukraine.”

Mežviets said that, overall, Western Europe waking up to the threat from Russia is a positive development:

“Before 2022, we constantly warned our Western European partners about the threat from Russia, but our voices were largely ignored. In 2022, our partners’ approach changed. They said the Baltics and the Poles had been proven right.”

Neither Mežviets nor Koudelka wished to discuss what concrete intelligence might have been obtained regarding Russia’s alleged plans for the coming months.

Nor did they comment on whether a surprise visit to Moscow last month by CIA Director John Ratcliffe: during which he also stopped in Riga: was undertaken partly to warn the Kremlin about the dangers of attacking NATO.

Following that visit, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied rumours that Russia would attack NATO, saying: “This has nothing to do with reality, and it has nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation.”

Koudelka argued that Russia’s current tactic is to “escalate to de-escalate,” stating that the Kremlin is probing vulnerabilities in Western societies to diminish their support for Ukraine’s war effort.

“They believe that if they escalate enough, European countries will decide not to support Ukraine,” Koudelka said.

Thomas Nilsson, head of the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service, said in an interview on the margins of a conference held in Riga: “I have seen no signs of serious consideration in Moscow regarding genuine negotiations. In my assessment, they still believe they can achieve their strategic objectives; therefore, they are merely engaging in negotiation theatre.”

All three intelligence chiefs stated that, whatever else happens, Russia’s sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months.

Nilsson described the recent armed drone incident at Leipzig airport, which German authorities attributed to Russian intelligence, as a “game-changer”:

“Sending an armed drone into a busy airport in the heart of Europe… If attacks involve the potential loss of life or the disruption of critical infrastructure with immense consequences for society, I believe that is a game-changer.”

Mežviets noted that Russia has shifted from random acts of sabotage and arson aimed at inducing panic toward specific targets connected to Western support for Ukraine. “We see them trying to target railway infrastructure and infrastructure providing support to Ukraine. We currently observe a shift toward defence industry targets,” he said. “If you do that, the psychological operations effect is already achieved; thus you accomplish both at once,” he added.

Nilsson stated that several objectives lie behind the recent intensification of Russian sabotage activities: reducing support for Ukraine, creating divisions within NATO, and unsettling European populations.

“In my view, Moscow would like nothing more than for NATO to engage in endless discussions about Article 4 consultations while taking no concrete steps,” the Swedish official said.

Koudelka noted that another effect of the sabotage campaign is that it strains the resources of intelligence services, as suspicions frequently linger even when incidents stem from other causes.

“Now, every fire or every malfunction must be investigated by intelligence services as a potential terrorist attack, and that is a good outcome for them,” the intelligence chief said.