Central Asia strategy heats up: The EU seeks leadership, China advocates win-win cooperation

Ma Jinting, Research Assistant Center for Turkish Studies, Shanghai University

The first EU-Central Asia Summit was held on April 3-4, 2025 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The summit was organized under the “5+1” pattern, a dialogue mechanism between the EU and the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan).

The summit is a milestone of EU-Central Asia relations, further deepening the cooperation between the EU and the Central Asian countries and marking a deeper strategic partnership. The themes of the summit focused on economic cooperation and investment, geopolitical and security cooperation, climate change and regional energy cooperation, cooperation for sustainable development, as well as humanistic exchanges and medical cooperation. It was also the first time that Central Asian leaders met with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and António Costa, President of the European Council.

Undoubtedly, both the scale and the outcome of the summit show the importance that the EU attaches to Central Asia and the determination of Central Asia to cooperate with the EU. On the one hand, the EU proposed to invest in the “Global Gateway” program, and on the other hand, Central Asia stood by the EU on hot issues. Although the substantive progress after the summit is not yet known, it can be seen that the EU is trying to realize a more sustainable layout of Central Asia through institutionalized cooperation, so as to enhance the influence of the EU in the complex international situation.

The Samarkand Declaration: a new stage in EU-Central Asia relations

Under the profound changes in the landscape of globalization and multipolarity, the deepening of cooperative relations between the EU and Central Asia is an inevitable trend. In Costa official statement to the EU Council before the summit, he said that we are living in a world of disorder and division, a viable solution for the EU is to build a strong partnership, thus promoting the prosperity and development for EU.

At present, Under the background of unilateralism, geopolitical conflicts, the international cooperation mechanism of multilateralism is increasingly important. Multilateralism emphasizes the solution of transnational problems through institutionalized international cooperation, dialogue mechanisms and rule systems, thus enhancing the EU’s influence on international issues. Therefore, the EU has taken the lead in building an institutionalized and open platform through the “5+1” conference pattern. From the perspective of the Central Asian countries, based on the concept of multilateralism,the active participation of Central Asian countries in the dialogue platform can enhance the strategic autonomy of them and maximize their national interests without relying on the big powers.

Before the summit, a relatively stable framework for the EU’s Central Asian policy had already been formed. In the political and diplomatic fields, the EU and Central Asian countries discuss cross-border governance issues such as security and counter-terrorism through the Senior Officials Dialogue mechanism. In the economic and trade field, the EU focuses on energy issues and achieve long-term economic cooperation through reciprocity. For example, the EU is Kazakhstan’s main economic and trade partner, with EU investments accounting for more than 40 percent of the state’s foreign investment by 2024. In return, Kazakhstan imports a wide range of industrial and consumer goods from the EU. In the field of people to people exchanges, the EU provides assistance to Central Asian countries in education, health, law and democracy building through the Global Gateway program. At the same time, the EU opens numbers of opportunities at universities and promotes knowledge sharing between academic institutions.

On the basis of the previous cooperation, both EU and Central Asia countries issued a joint declaration, the joint declaration following the first European Union-Central Asia summit (also called “the Samarkand Declaration”) at the summit. The Samarkand Declaration includes six main elements: first, defining the strategic partnership between the EU and Central Asia; second, advancing “the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreements” (EPCAs); third, promoting the implementation of the “Global Gateway” program in various areas. Third, promoting the implementation of the “Global Gateway” program in various fields, in which the EU has said it will invest 12 billion euros; fourth, supporting the construction of intermediate corridors; fifth, strengthening security cooperation in counter-terrorism and border security; sixth, jointly addressing international issues such as climate change and water resource governance. In short, the summit upgraded the political and economic aspects of the relationship on the basis of the original cooperation mechanisms, marking an upgrade of the EU’s strategic orientation towards Central Asia. The Samarkand Declaration demonstrates the willingness of the EU and Central Asia to deepen cooperation in the face of increasing global uncertainty, and highlights the EU’s attempts to build an institutionalized system of cooperation in Central Asia.

Central Asia in great power competition: The EU’s logic and challenges of engagement

The consideration of EU on Central Asia has three main points. First, Central Asia is located in the hinterland of the Asian and European continents, and is the land transportation hub of Asia and Europe, so Central Asia is also regarded as a “strategic landmark” by the big powers. Traditionally, Central Asia has been in Russia’s sphere of influence for a long time, and Russia has maintained its influence in Central Asia through alliances. For example, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is a military alliance led by Russia, and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which focuses on economic development. Since the Ukrainian crisis, the EU has accelerated its strategic layout in Central Asia with the intention of weakening Russia’s influence in Central Asia. The United States, on the other hand, treats Central Asia as a fulcrum for maintaining regional stability, countering terrorism, and containing major powers. Since the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the U.S. has begun to emphasize the role of Central Asia as a “transition region.” Meanwhile, the “Global Gateway” program intends to counterbalance China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” in order to curb China’s influence in Central Asia. The “Global Gateway” program provides alternatives in the areas of infrastructure and digital connectivity to build the EU’s “Asia-Europe Corridor”.

Secondly, abundant energy resources make Central Asia highly dependent in the international community. Central Asia is one of the world’s regions rich in oil, natural gas, and rare metal resources. In particular, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, have strong energy export capacity, which makes them extremely attractive to external powers. The EU-Central Asia Summit will further plan the construction of an “intermediate corridor” to enhance the complementarity of the two sides in the fields of energy and transportation.

Finally, Central Asia has a large population and a broad market. Although there is frequent trade between Europe and Central Asia, it is mainly concentrated in the natural resources. China and Russia, as important trading partners of Central Asia, have long dominated the foreign trade structure of Central Asian countries. The EU hopes to expand its share of the Central Asian market with the help of an institutionalized platform. However, the strategic autonomy of Central Asian countries has been strengthened in recent years, and it is still unknown whether the EU’s vision can be realized.

In conclusion, the EU wants to further expand its influence and appeal in Central Asia through this summit, but may have a huge gap when it comes to official policies and the real truth on the ground. In the perspective political-security, Central Asia already has a relatively deep security bundle through the construction of a military defense system with Russia. At the same time, Central Asia have close contacts with Turkey and NATO. In the perspective political and security, the influence of EU is limited. EU can only through the participation of international hotspot issues in the way to draw Central Asian countries. In perspective of the economic and trade , the EU has a certain degree of influence in Central Asia, but in the overall economic exchanges still fall behind China. For example, according to a report released by the Statistics Agency of Kazakhstan, China is Kazakhstan’s top trading partner as of 2024. In perspective the area of international, the EU emphasizes values such as the rule of law and sustainable development, but the acceptance of the values varies due to the different differences among the Central Asian countries. As a result, the EU’s overall influence in Central Asia is limited, and it is not an “external leader” in Central Asian affairs, but rather permeates its influence through specific international issues.

China: Seeking cooperation rather than confrontation

China has consistently maintained a pluralistic and open mind to multilateral relations. China Upholding the principles of multilateralism, adhering to the norms of international relations , abide by the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.

China has been actively engaged in maintaining multilateral diplomatic relations by concrete actions in the context of the Global Initiative for Development, Security and Civilization. Respecting the state of development and the diversity of civilizations in each region, China hopes to work with Central Asia, the EU and other actors to promote peace, stability and development in the international community.

From China’s perspective, China has never regarded the EU as a strategic competitor and looks forward to cooperation on international issues. In Central Asia, the foreign policy of some small and medium-sized countries follows the model of balanced diplomacy, which allows them to seek space for development. Central Asia’s active cooperation with the EU can not only ease its overdependence on big powers, but also promote the stable development of the region.

In fact, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is an open and inclusive development platform, and China is willing to explore cooperation paths with other actors, to jointly promote the sustainable development for international society. As Liu Jianchao, Minister of the Foreign Liaison Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, said in his speech at the Young Experts’ Club of the Upper House of the Parliament of Kazakhstan, “Central Asia is located in the center of Asia and Europe, with a special and important geographic position, and broad prospects for development. China and Central Asian countries have promoted the building of a China-Central Asia community of destiny, shaping a model of regional cooperation on the world map of seeking common development, sharing peace and moving forward together.”

In recent years, based on the special geopolitical environment, the internal cooperation of Central Asian countries has significantly increased. Starting in 2018, the leaders of the five Central Asian countries have been strengthening regional identity and cooperation mechanisms by holding summit. The pattern of organizing the EU-Central Asia Summit is also a multilateral cooperation based on regional consensus. The Central Asian countries are not only in frequent contact with the EU, but also actively participate in international affairs by participating in the “Central Asia-China” and “Central Asia-US” C5+1 dialogues.Those willingness have shown their ability to take action in international affairs.

Energy development and regional stability in Central Asia have become the critical issues. How to deal with the relationship between national development and the major powers, and maintain a balance between taking sides on hotspot issues and strategic autonomy, are issues that the Central Asian countries need to address.