Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) narrowly won Sunday’s general election (29.5 percent) but fell short of a majority, leaving the upstart right-wing Chega party as a potential governing partner.
Chega, the nativist/localist party led by André Ventura, made the biggest gains with 18% of the vote (from 7% in 2022 to 18%), while the ruling Socialist Party (PS) lost around 13% of the vote compared to the 2022 elections (from 41% to 28%).
AD leader Luís Montenegro insisted on Monday that he would stick to his promise not to form a coalition with Chega, even if it could create a conservative majority.
“Of course I will keep my word. I would never commit the crime of not honouring the commitments I have so clearly made to myself, my party and my country,” Montenegro said.
During the election campaign, Montenegro frequently described Chega’s views as ‘racist’ and ‘xenophobic’.
Another way for AD to take power is for the PS to abstain in the parliamentary vote on the formation of the government, allowing Chega to govern without its help.
The Socialists conceded defeat early on Monday. The snap election, triggered by a corruption scandal that led to the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa, ended eight years of PS rule.
The United Democratic Coalition, made up of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party (PEV), won 3.3% of the vote and 4 MPs, while the Left Bloc (BE) won 4.5% and 5 MPs. The Liberals (IL), with 5.5 per cent, sent 8 deputies to parliament.
Chega has the key
Chega leader Ventura increased his share of the vote from 7 per cent to 18 per cent, making his party the third largest in Portugal. After the elections, Ventura quickly launched his own initiative to enter government.
“We are ready to form a stable government in Portugal. AD wanted a majority. Today the Portuguese have spoken and said they want a two-party government with AD and Chega,” Ventura said.
Asked if he would call Montenegro on election night, Ventura said: “Let’s see. I’m going to call my mother now,” he replied.
“We will not make it impossible to form a government,” said Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, suggesting that his party will ensure that Montenegro takes office without Chega. After that, however, the PS will do little to help, Santos said, stressing that the Socialists should not be expected to support the government.
Montenegro said he understood that the PS did not identify with the programme it would present, but he asked the party to ‘respect the will of the Portuguese people’. “I hope that the PS and Chega will not join forces to overthrow the government,” the AD leader said.
It is now up to Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to appoint a new prime minister, which he is expected to do after meeting with the parties in the coming days. It could take a week or two for the chosen candidate to try to form a government.
The rise of Chega
Ventura was quick to appeal to Rebelo de Sousa: “This is a victory that should be heard in Belem Palace,” referring to the president’s official residence.
Socialist leader Santos said Chega had achieved a result that could not be ignored: “18 per cent of Portuguese are not racist, but there are many angry Portuguese. We want to regain the confidence of these Portuguese,” he said.
Chega is highly critical of Portugal’s two mainstream parties. The PS corruption scandal has played into Ventura’s hands. But his attitude towards immigrants and Portugal’s small Roma community has resonated more. The party also advocates ‘chemical castration’ for some sex offenders.
The election was also marked by anger over the cost of living crisis, in which rising housing costs, fuelled in part by an influx of foreign buyers, have left millions of Portuguese unable to afford decent homes.
Ventura has forged links with other right-wing parties, including Vox in neighbouring Spain. Vox leader Santiago Abascal congratulated him in a post on X.
The party is also known for its opposition to the traditional ‘centre-left’. In a video on Chega’s website, Ventura said he would ‘cleanse Portugal of socialists and social democrats’.
Ventura entered politics as a candidate for the Social Democrats (PSD) in the 2017 local elections in Loures, near Lisbon. He targeted the Roma community, claiming they were almost entirely dependent on state benefits. Ventura lost that election and then left the PSD to form Chega in 2019.
Ventura, 41, is a former tax inspector and football commentator.
PS doomed by continued austerity
During his campaign, Montenegro said the Socialists had squandered the chance of a parliamentary majority they won in 2022 and rejected the idea that this party had ended the era of ‘austerity’.
“Maximum taxes, minimum public services. What more austerity could there be? Per capita income at the bottom of Europe. What could be more austerity than that?” he asked.
The Democratic Alliance is more ‘moderate’ than most of Europe’s mainstream conservative parties, but has pledged to break with nearly a decade of ‘centre-left’ rule by cutting taxes and further promoting the private sector.
Chronic corruption, high public debt (which has fallen below 100 per cent of GDP for the first time since 2009), high unemployment and low growth rates are among the causes of Portugal’s social crisis, which has been spreading for years. The sale of residency permits and citizenship to foreigners through real estate was one of the straws that broke the camel’s back for the Portuguese, who were already struggling with high property prices.
