Russia’s federal budget has returned to a deficit in 2024 due to increased spending, with the deficit reaching 389 billion roubles in October.
The Russian Finance Ministry announced that the federal budget returned to deficit in the first ten months of 2024, with expenditures exceeding revenues by 220 billion roubles—or 0.1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
According to preliminary data from the ministry, the budget showed a surplus of 169 billion roubles from January to September. Thus, the October budget deficit may have reached 389 billion roubles.
Despite the current deficit, this year’s budget deficit remains lower than in the same period last year, when it reached 1.05 trillion roubles (0.6% of GDP) due to a decline in Russia’s energy revenues following Western sanctions imposed in response to Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine.
Last month, budget revenues rose by around 4% compared with September, reaching levels similar to October 2023. Ten-month revenues increased 28.4% year-on-year, totaling 29.67 trillion roubles.
Non-oil and gas revenues grew 26.6% year-on-year to 20.13 trillion roubles, while oil and gas revenues climbed 32.3% year-on-year to 9.54 trillion roubles.
The monthly expenditure also continued its upward trend. According to the Ministry of Finance, spending in October increased 23.3% month-on-month and 26.8% year-on-year.
From January to October, the Finance Ministry spent 29.89 trillion roubles, a 23.7% rise from 24.16 trillion roubles spent in the same period last year.
This autumn, authorities approved an increase in spending above the planned 2024 budget rule from 1.3 trillion roubles to 1.5 trillion roubles.
Consequently, the Finance Ministry now forecasts total budget spending for 2024 to reach 39.41 trillion roubles—7.5% higher than initially planned and 21.8% more than last year.
If this forecast holds, an additional 9.52 trillion roubles will be spent in the remaining two months of the year, comprising nearly a quarter of the annual target.
Following this extra spending, the Russian budget is projected to close 2024 with a deficit of 3 trillion roubles or 2% of GDP, marking the third consecutive year in deficit.
