China balances strategic caution with diplomatic support following US-Israel strikes on Iran

China’s clear yet calibrated reaction to the US-Israel strikes on Iran aligns with its long-standing strategy: avoiding direct military engagement while offering diplomatic support.

The joint US-Israel strikes, which have plunged the Middle East into deeper chaos, have turned the global spotlight on China—a pivotal element in the great power competition—and its prospective response.

Confirming the death of a Chinese national and the evacuation of 3,000 citizens from the country, China requested an emergency session of the UN Security Council alongside Russia on Saturday and condemned the military action.

In a phone conversation on Monday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, characterized the strikes and the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as “unacceptable.”

“The international community must send a clear and unequivocal message against the world’s slide back toward the law of the jungle,” he stated.

Beyond this rhetoric, however, Beijing—which maintains a comprehensive strategic partnership with Tehran—has refrained from offering tangible support.

Beijing’s response mirrors its long-standing doctrine of providing diplomatic cover while eschewing direct military entanglement, a policy seen in its reaction to the US detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January. This stance has sparked debate regarding how this approach impacts the image of “reliability” among the Global South nations with which China cooperates.

According to an analysis published a day prior to the strikes by Ahmed Aboudouh, a researcher at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Programme, China’s diplomatic caution amid the US-Iran tension should not be misconstrued as “unreliability or indifference.”

Aboudouh contends that Beijing is playing a “long game” regarding Iran, viewing the regime’s mounting vulnerabilities as an opportunity to deepen Tehran’s dependence on China while simultaneously distracting Washington.

How have relations evolved?

Following the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1971, China-Iran ties witnessed a significant surge in 2016 when President Xi Jinping visited Tehran, elevating bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

This development placed China’s relationship with Iran on the same tier as its ties with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and several European nations, including France, Spain, and Italy.

In 2023, China facilitated an agreement to restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Tehran has also joined the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS as a counterweight to Western influence, endorsing Beijing’s vision of a multipolar world order.

What drives the bilateral relationship?

Economic ties deepened in 2021 when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Tehran to sign a 25-year cooperation agreement, pledging approximately $400 billion in investments across the energy, banking, telecommunications, and infrastructure sectors. In return, the deal secured a stable supply of Iranian oil.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to China last September reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to fully implementing this long-term cooperation accord.

China has served as a vital lifeline for Iran’s sanctions-strained economy; it is reported to have purchased over 80% of Iran’s oil exports in 2025.

Beijing has dismissed reports that it exploits discounted oil through “ghost fleets” and rebranded shipments, maintaining that trade with another sovereign nation is legitimate.

Sino-Iranian trade is heavily skewed in China’s favor. According to Chinese customs data (excluding Iranian oil imports due to sanctions), the bilateral trade volume in 2025 reached approximately $10 billion, with $7 billion accounting for Chinese exports to Iran.

Beijing and Tehran also maintain a robust security partnership, which encompasses cooperation in counter-terrorism, combating illegal migration, and addressing transnational and organized crime.

The cooperation agreement also includes strengthening military and security ties through joint military exercises and intelligence sharing under the auspices of counter-terrorism.

Although China has not provided Iran with any explicit security guarantees, Beijing reportedly supplied Tehran with the YLC-8B radar system, cited as one of the few systems capable of continuously detecting and tracking Western fifth-generation fighter aircraft at long ranges.

What is China’s approach to Iran’s nuclear activities?

China opposes Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons while supporting the right to use peaceful nuclear energy within the framework of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Beijing is explicitly opposed to any military action against Iran or any infringement upon its sovereignty.

However, China remains concerned that a nuclear-armed Iran could trigger a regional war, destabilize Gulf nations, and encourage a regional arms race—leading countries not just in the Middle East, but also nations like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, to seek nuclear capabilities of their own.

What is the future of the relationship?

Experts anticipate that the bilateral relationship will persist despite any leadership changes.

According to Andrea Ghiselli, a faculty member at the University of Exeter and research director of the ChinaMed Project, Beijing may be unsettled by the loss of Khamenei but remains well-positioned to adapt to new leadership in Tehran.

In an article penned Sunday, Ghiselli noted, “Whatever happens now, this will not make Saudi Arabia and [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries less interested in or less dependent on trade relations with China; nor will it make these countries less anxious about Israel.” He added, “In other words, while there may be some losses for Beijing at the regional level, they are likely to remain limited.”