Could Russia and the US limit nuclear weapons without a new treaty?

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on September 23 that Moscow and Washington have “broached the future of strategic stability in general terms.”

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal on September 22, the first official response from the White House came from Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for US President Donald Trump. Leavitt said, “The President is aware of this proposal and will make his own comment later. In my opinion, it sounds positive, but he reserves the right to comment himself.”

Speaking at the UN General Assembly on September 23, Trump remarked, “The use of nuclear weapons would destroy the world.”

China calls on parties to ‘fulfill your obligations’

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun, in a statement to RIA Novosti, said, “As the two countries with the largest nuclear arsenals, Russia and the US must honestly fulfill their obligations, reimplement the New START treaty, and negotiate new arrangements.”

Guo had previously described Washington’s attempts to involve Beijing in the process as an “unreasonable and unrealistic” expectation.

In February 2023, Russia suspended its participation in and inspections under the New START treaty. Putin explained that this decision was due to the West’s support for Ukraine and the failure to consider the nuclear capabilities of NATO countries, particularly France and the United Kingdom.

However, despite withdrawing from the agreement, Moscow stated it would continue to adhere to the numerical limits, and Washington has maintained the same approach.

The New START treaty, signed in Prague in 2010 by then-leaders Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, entered into force in 2011 and was extended for another five years in 2021.

According to the agreement, each party is limited to a maximum of 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. The total number of delivery vehicles cannot exceed 800, and the number of warheads cannot exceed 1,550.

Experts evaluate the proposal

Prokhor Tebin, Director of the Center for Military-Economic Research at the Higher School of Economics, told the newspaper Vedomosti that adhering to the obligations for another year is a responsible step. He noted that while it is difficult to predict Trump’s response, such a “voluntary restraint” requires common sense and determination.

Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, commented, “There is no longer time to prepare a new agreement.”

Recalling that the idea of making adherence to existing limits a political commitment had been raised before, Podvig said that Russia has nothing to lose with this move.

According to Podvig, Moscow has no need to expand its arsenal, but if Washington does, Russia could respond by increasing the number of warheads on specific missiles.

“The general consensus in the US is that the number of warheads needs to be increased in response to China’s program. Russia’s proposal puts Washington in a difficult position,” the expert said.

Alexey Arbatov, Director of the Security Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated that the New START treaty is in the interest of both countries as it prevents an unnecessary arms race and reduces costs.

“But this agreement may seem foreign to Trump because it was signed and extended during the Democrats’ tenure. There will also be significant pressure against the agreement from the US Senate. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that Trump could overcome this and take a step towards stable relations with Moscow,” Arbatov said.

On the other hand, Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Chinese Military-Economic Research at the Higher School of Economics, noted that US strategic modernization programs are still in their early stages.

“Only the B-21 Raider is in the test flight phase. Furthermore, the US has not produced new warheads for decades; it has extended the life of old ones. Therefore, its production capacity is not ready for a new arms race,” Kashin said.

In contrast, Kashin emphasized that Russia has brought modern weapons to the mass production stage and can continue production. “Russia withdrew from the dialogue in 2023 but is now showing it is ready to negotiate again. It loses nothing with this proposal,” he added.