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Could Russia and the US limit nuclear weapons without a new treaty?

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Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on September 23 that Moscow and Washington have “broached the future of strategic stability in general terms.”

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal on September 22, the first official response from the White House came from Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for US President Donald Trump. Leavitt said, “The President is aware of this proposal and will make his own comment later. In my opinion, it sounds positive, but he reserves the right to comment himself.”

Speaking at the UN General Assembly on September 23, Trump remarked, “The use of nuclear weapons would destroy the world.”

China calls on parties to ‘fulfill your obligations’

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun, in a statement to RIA Novosti, said, “As the two countries with the largest nuclear arsenals, Russia and the US must honestly fulfill their obligations, reimplement the New START treaty, and negotiate new arrangements.”

Guo had previously described Washington’s attempts to involve Beijing in the process as an “unreasonable and unrealistic” expectation.

In February 2023, Russia suspended its participation in and inspections under the New START treaty. Putin explained that this decision was due to the West’s support for Ukraine and the failure to consider the nuclear capabilities of NATO countries, particularly France and the United Kingdom.

However, despite withdrawing from the agreement, Moscow stated it would continue to adhere to the numerical limits, and Washington has maintained the same approach.

The New START treaty, signed in Prague in 2010 by then-leaders Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, entered into force in 2011 and was extended for another five years in 2021.

According to the agreement, each party is limited to a maximum of 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. The total number of delivery vehicles cannot exceed 800, and the number of warheads cannot exceed 1,550.

Experts evaluate the proposal

Prokhor Tebin, Director of the Center for Military-Economic Research at the Higher School of Economics, told the newspaper Vedomosti that adhering to the obligations for another year is a responsible step. He noted that while it is difficult to predict Trump’s response, such a “voluntary restraint” requires common sense and determination.

Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, commented, “There is no longer time to prepare a new agreement.”

Recalling that the idea of making adherence to existing limits a political commitment had been raised before, Podvig said that Russia has nothing to lose with this move.

According to Podvig, Moscow has no need to expand its arsenal, but if Washington does, Russia could respond by increasing the number of warheads on specific missiles.

“The general consensus in the US is that the number of warheads needs to be increased in response to China’s program. Russia’s proposal puts Washington in a difficult position,” the expert said.

Alexey Arbatov, Director of the Security Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated that the New START treaty is in the interest of both countries as it prevents an unnecessary arms race and reduces costs.

“But this agreement may seem foreign to Trump because it was signed and extended during the Democrats’ tenure. There will also be significant pressure against the agreement from the US Senate. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that Trump could overcome this and take a step towards stable relations with Moscow,” Arbatov said.

On the other hand, Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Chinese Military-Economic Research at the Higher School of Economics, noted that US strategic modernization programs are still in their early stages.

“Only the B-21 Raider is in the test flight phase. Furthermore, the US has not produced new warheads for decades; it has extended the life of old ones. Therefore, its production capacity is not ready for a new arms race,” Kashin said.

In contrast, Kashin emphasized that Russia has brought modern weapons to the mass production stage and can continue production. “Russia withdrew from the dialogue in 2023 but is now showing it is ready to negotiate again. It loses nothing with this proposal,” he added.

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Drone strike ignites St. Petersburg oil terminal as major economic forum opens

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Drone strikes targeted Russia’s Leningrad region overnight, sparking a fire at a strategically vital oil terminal in St. Petersburg on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The attacks, which struck multiple regions across Russia, prompted widespread airspace restrictions and targeted military-industrial facilities.

Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, announced that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) carried out an attack on the region during the night of June 3.

According to information provided by the governor, a total of 50 drones were shot down during the aerial assault, which began around 02:00 and continued until 07:00. Governor Drozdenko did not share detailed information regarding any damage or casualties resulting from the attack.

Local media outlet Bumaga reported that the sounds of explosions were heard in the Admiralteysky, Vasileostrovsky, Primorsky, and Krasnoselsky districts of St. Petersburg.

In the Kirovsky district, the attack resulted in a fire at the Petersburg Oil Terminal, one of Russia’s largest oil transshipment facilities on the Baltic Sea.

With an annual transit capacity of 12.5 million metric tons of fuel and housing 21 reservoirs used for storing petroleum products, this enterprise holds strategic importance for ensuring Russia’s security.

The drone attack on the oil terminal occurred on the opening day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), scheduled to take place from June 3 to 6, where Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver a speech.

The Expoforum exhibition center, where the forum is being held, is reportedly located approximately 17 kilometers from the targeted oil terminal. Due to drone activity and the threat of aerial attacks, more than 29 flights experienced delays at Pulkovo Airport.

On the same night, the city of Michurinsk in the Tambov region, located in the interior of Russia, was also targeted by aerial attacks. Region Governor Yevgeny Pervyshov stated in a declaration on the matter: “As a result of the crash of UAVs belonging to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an apartment building, a library, and an art school were damaged, with their windows shattered, and the outbuildings of an industrial enterprise were also damaged. There are no casualties or injuries.”

According to an investigation by the Astra news portal, the primary target of the drones in the area was the Progress factory, which manufactures control systems for aviation and missile technologies.

The military-industrial facility in question had previously been subjected to drone attacks in February of this year, as well as in June 2025 and December 2024.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced in a statement that a total of 354 drones were shot down over Russian territory throughout the night.

It was reported that air defense systems intercepted or shot down drones across a total of 16 administrative regions, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Leningrad, Novgorod, Oryol, Rostov, Tula, and Moscow regions.

Due to the threat of aerial attacks, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) imposed temporary restrictions on the operations of Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports, as well as airports in the cities of Kaluga, Saratov, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, starting from the evening of June 2.

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Russia moves to privatize major oil port operator amid widening budget deficit

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Russia is preparing to privatize the state’s stake in Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP), one of the country’s largest port operators, as the government seeks to finance a widening federal budget deficit. Russia’s federal budget shortfall reached nearly 6 trillion rubles in the January-April period.

After Rosimushchestvo on Friday announced plans to sell the state’s stake in Aeroflot, a 20% government holding in NMTP was also added to the privatization program. According to Interfax, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the relevant decree on May 23.

The entire state stake in the holding company is expected to be offered for sale during the 2026-2028 period. NMTP includes two major oil ports that together handle roughly half of Russia’s oil exports.

One of them is the Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea, with a capacity of around 500,000 barrels per day. The other is the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea coast, with a capacity of approximately 1 million barrels per day.

The holding also includes the Baltiysk port in the Kaliningrad region. Last year, the company generated revenue of 76.5 billion rubles and net profit of 40.6 billion rubles.

State-owned pipeline operator Transneft is NMTP’s largest shareholder, holding a 60% stake.

Transneft acquired the shares in 2018 after the previous shareholder, billionaire Ziyavudin Magomedov, was arrested on charges of creating an organized criminal group.

Magomedov was later sentenced to 19 years in prison in the same case. Around 20% of NMTP is held by private investors, including stock market participants.

According to Reuters estimates, the state could raise around 33 billion rubles from the sale of its NMTP stake. That would be slightly below the estimated 45 billion ruble valuation of the Aeroflot stake slated for privatization.

Potential buyers for the 20% state stake have not yet been identified, and no official information has been released. However, Freedom Finance Global analyst Natalya Milchakova said major investors could show interest in the asset.

“The asset could attract the attention of state-linked organizations ranging from commodity and transport-logistics companies to major financial institutions. Players with more limited financial resources would neither be able to acquire the NMTP shares in question nor become strategic investors in this sector,” Milchakova said.

Revenue generated from the privatization will be transferred to the federal budget. The Russian government drafted this year’s budget with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles.

However, by the end of April, the actual budget deficit had exceeded the annual target by more than 1.5 times.

Economist Dmitry Polevoy previously said the budget could lose between 300 billion and 700 billion rubles in revenue this year because of lower economic growth forecasts.

According to Polevoy’s calculations, undercollection of non-oil budget revenues could rise to between 1.3 trillion and 1.8 trillion rubles next year.

Polevoy said that unless current conditions change, the government would be forced either to cut spending or seek additional revenue sources of a similar scale.

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Iran and Russia reaffirm strategic alliance following high-level talks in St. Petersburg

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, following high-level meetings in Moscow and St. Petersburg, stated that recent regional developments have once again demonstrated the depth and strength of the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia.

The Iranian minister met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in St. Petersburg on Monday.

During the meeting, Putin described the Iranian people’s struggle to preserve their sovereignty as “brave and heroic.” Putin further expressed his hope for the restoration of peace and stated that Russia would take the necessary steps to protect the interests of both Iran and regional states while contributing to the establishment of stability in the area.

Araghchi noted that Tehran appreciates the support provided by the Moscow administration during the period of US and Israeli attacks against Iran.

Emphasizing that relations between Iran and Russia will continue to strengthen on the basis of a strategic partnership, Araghchi criticized the silence of certain countries in the face of violations and pressure exerted by the US. He warned that this application of double standards would negatively impact the entire international community.

Addressing mediation efforts led by Pakistan, Araghchi said that the Washington administration’s unreasonable demands, shifting positions, use of threatening language, and frequent violations of its commitments remain the primary obstacles to diplomatic processes.

In an additional statement shared via his social media accounts, Araghchi expressed satisfaction with the “highest-level” talks held in Russia at a time when West Asia is undergoing a transformation driven by the policies of Israel and its Western supporters. Araghchi reiterated his gratification regarding Russia’s solidarity and its support for diplomacy, noting that bilateral relations will continue to evolve.

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov also stated that mutual support between Moscow and Tehran would continue in the face of the aggressive stance displayed by the US toward Iran.

According to the TASS news agency, Belousov met with Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, where he emphasized that Russia would maintain its support for Iran regardless of evolving conditions. Belousov noted that Russia supports Iranian sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that Moscow favors a resolution of the crisis through diplomatic channels exclusively and is prepared to do everything within its power to facilitate such a solution.

Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talai-Nik expressed satisfaction with Moscow’s support for Tehran in international forums and its commitment to enhancing defense cooperation.

These meetings took place against a backdrop of a continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The Tehran administration characterizes this blockade as part of US aggression and a violation of ceasefire conditions.

The Iranian side has announced that it will not enter into a new negotiation process with Washington unless the current blockade is lifted. According to leaked information, Tehran is proposing a three-stage plan for potential talks with the US.

In the first stage of this formula, Iran demands an end to the war and guarantees that attacks against Iran and Lebanon will not be repeated. The second stage envisions the management of the Strait of Hormuz being handled in coordination with Oman, while the nuclear file is intended to be brought to the agenda only after these two stages have been completed.

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