Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have reached their highest level since the beginning of 2022.

According to tanker tracking data cited by Bloomberg, the sharp increase in shipment volumes has not translated into higher budget revenues, as declining global oil prices have weighed on export earnings.

The data showed that Russia exported an average of 4.13 million barrels of crude per day by sea during the four weeks ending June 28.

In the latest one-week period alone, shipments rose to 32.39 million barrels carried by 43 tankers, compared with 28.79 million barrels transported by 38 vessels the previous week.

Meanwhile, the volume of Russian crude in transit to buyers climbed by about one-third from mid-April to 133 million barrels.

Some of those cargoes were reported to be waiting off the coasts of Egypt and Singapore. According to Bloomberg analysts, this could indicate that finding new buyers for all exported cargoes is becoming increasingly difficult.

Falling prices weigh on revenues

Despite higher shipment volumes, oil export earnings declined. Calculations showed that average weekly export revenue stood at $1.9 billion over the latest four-week period.

That marks the lowest weekly revenue level since March.

The decline was primarily attributed to weaker global oil prices. Russia’s benchmark Urals crude fell to around $62 a barrel, tracking broader declines in international benchmarks.

Crude loaded via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline also declined, with prices falling to $74 a barrel.

Progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran has fueled expectations of increased oil supplies from Gulf producers, adding further downward pressure on prices.

Asia remains the leading market

Asia continued to account for the largest share of Russian crude purchases. Average shipments to the region reached 3.98 million barrels per day during the latest four-week period, setting a new record since the beginning of 2022.

Bloomberg said some tankers have yet to declare their final destinations, although a significant share of those cargoes could eventually be routed to India.

Another factor behind the increase in exports is the decline in processing capacity at Russian refineries. Crude that would otherwise have been refined domestically may instead have been redirected to export markets.

Bloomberg had previously reported that seaborne exports remained at elevated levels.

At the time, the agency said higher shipments reflected increased competition in the Indian market as Iranian crude regained market share, together with reduced refinery activity inside Russia. It noted that although physical export volumes had increased, weaker global prices had limited revenue growth.

Global market outlook weakens

According to a Reuters survey published on Tuesday, analysts lowered their oil price forecasts for the first time in five months.

Analysts attributed the revision to easing concerns over supply disruptions following the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, expectations that Gulf producers will gradually restore exports, and planned output increases by the OPEC+ alliance.

Weaker-than-expected demand from China is also weighing on the market.

In addition, following the lifting of the US blockade over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and other Gulf producers have rapidly increased their oil exports.

Sellers of Iranian crude in the Chinese market have also reportedly cut prices in response to rising supply.

Russia’s oil exports have reached their highest volume of the year so far, despite intensifying competition in the Indian market, one of the country’s key destinations for crude shipments.

According to Bloomberg, citing vessel-tracking data and port agency reports, competition in India has increased after Iran boosted its exports following the suspension of US sanctions.

Weekly data showed that Russia’s average daily oil shipments rose to 4.11 million barrels in the week ending June 21, marking the highest level recorded this year.

The figure stood at 3.9 million barrels per day the previous week. During the latest reporting period, 38 tankers loaded a total of 28.79 million barrels of Russian crude, compared with 27.29 million barrels transported by 37 vessels in the preceding week.

The volume of Russian oil at sea also climbed to 125 million barrels, up 26% from the roughly 100 million-barrel low recorded in April. The report noted that nearly all of this volume was aboard vessels in transit.

Declining global prices weigh on revenues

According to analysts, the gross value of Russia’s oil exports declined as Urals crude prices fell in line with lower prices for global benchmarks including Brent, WTI and Dubai crude.

During the four-week period ending June 21, weekly export revenues fell to $1.72 billion from $2.02 billion in the period ending before June 14.

The decline in prices was attributed to progress in US-Iran talks.

The price of Urals crude fell by $8.10 per barrel to $69.98 at Baltic ports and by $7.90 to $69.37 at Black Sea ports.

Russia’s ESPO blend declined by $7.40 to $79.87 per barrel, while prices for oil delivered to India fell for a ninth consecutive week, dropping by $8.80 per barrel to $90.36, according to Argus Media data.

Russia’s oil shipments to its Asian customers rose to 3.73 million barrels per day, the highest level since 2022.

However, volumes aboard tankers with China and India explicitly listed as destinations declined, while shipments carried by vessels without a specified final destination increased to approximately 1.95 million barrels per day. Of that total, 1.56 million barrels per day was carried by tankers departing western ports and heading toward intermediary locations such as Port Said or the Suez Canal, as well as Pacific tankers without a clearly identified delivery point.

Bloomberg said Russia’s global oil exports could decline if shipments from the Middle East increase following the US-Iran understanding that envisages the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the war, approximately 20% of the world’s oil consumption was transported through that route.

Reuters, citing data from international analytics firm Kpler, reported that Russian oil and coal shipments to India are expected to reach a record 2.55 million barrels per day in June, up from 2.13 million barrels per day in May.

India’s increased purchases of Russian oil came after the administration of US President Donald Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil purchases amid an energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran. Trump said in June that the sanctions waivers could soon be withdrawn because of falling global oil prices.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz accelerated the return of Iranian oil to the market after the United States pledged to ease sanctions and allow its sale.

Bloomberg reported that Iran’s openly declared oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had risen to their highest level since the start of the war.

The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on the night of June 18 providing for a cessation of hostilities, negotiations on a final agreement within 60 days, the gradual lifting of sanctions, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Following the announcement of the agreement, Brent crude fell below $83 per barrel for the first time in three months.

However, two days later Tehran announced that it had closed the strait again, accusing Washington of violating the agreement and citing Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

American businesses are waiting for a peace agreement and the lifting of sanctions before committing to a broader return to the Russian market, according to Robert Agee, president and chief executive of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham).

In an interview with Russian business daily Vedomosti on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Agee discussed prospects for restoring trade and economic ties between Russia and the United States.

Agee said that since February 2025, discussions have frequently focused on both a potential US mediating role in resolving the Ukraine conflict and a possible timeline for the return of American companies to Russia.

Referring to expectations that diplomatic negotiations and efforts to revive bilateral economic relations could proceed simultaneously, Agee said that despite the passage of time, neither track had produced a significant breakthrough.

The AmCham chief attributed the lack of progress to domestic and foreign policy dynamics within the United States and said American companies were now concentrating primarily on the eventual resolution of the conflict.

While describing efforts to repair economic ties as slow but steady, Agee identified the absence of a peace agreement as the principal obstacle.

“The biggest problem is that no agreement has yet been reached to resolve the conflict in Ukraine,” he said. “As a result, all US sanctions packages remain in force. We have repeatedly pushed for the removal of certain sanctions. Although I believe the new administration in Washington wants to improve relations with Russia, particularly from a trade, economic and business perspective, the continuing conflict has prevented any major breakthrough.”

‘President Trump wants to ease sanctions pressure wherever legally possible’

Addressing the future of sanctions and their impact on economic relations, Agee noted that restrictions differ according to their legal basis.

He said sanctions imposed through presidential executive orders could be eased much more quickly than those enacted through legislation.

“There are different types of sanctions. Some were introduced through presidential executive orders. Those could be removed tomorrow,” Agee said. “For example, the investment ban imposed by former US President Joe Biden. We believe that decision was entirely wrong, particularly for American business. On the other hand, there are sanctions approved by Congress, and those will be much more difficult to remove. Once the conflict ends, we know that President Donald Trump and his administration intend to reduce sanctions pressure to the maximum extent legally possible.”

Agee said the American Chamber of Commerce remained the only organisation directly advocating before US authorities for sanctions relief on behalf of American businesses.

“Companies pursue these requests exclusively through us, through the American Chamber of Commerce,” he said. “We are the only organisation trying to persuade the US government to lift certain sanctions. Our immediate priority is the removal of the investment ban. We are closely focused on sectors such as cosmetics and civil aviation. We are trying to convince the US government that sanctions in these areas can and should be eased even before the conflict is fully resolved.”

‘Russia has enormous potential to help our companies overcome global challenges’

Discussing sectors that would benefit most from renewed commercial ties, Agee said the opportunities available in Russia remained strategically important for American firms.

He pointed to Russia’s role in global supply chains and its potential contribution to addressing economic challenges.

“Russia has enormous potential to help our companies overcome many of today’s global challenges,” Agee said. “That applies both to high energy prices and to the fertiliser sector. Russia is one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers. These and similar products could easily be exported to the United States.”

He added that numerous American technology and aviation companies were closely monitoring developments.

“These are companies that previously operated here and were forced to leave. They did not want to leave. That is why they are now looking for opportunities to resume their business activities.”

Agee said future economic relations would extend beyond trade and include large-scale investment projects.

Noting that American companies had invested more than $100 billion in Russia in previous years, he said investment had traditionally formed the foundation of US economic engagement with the country.

“I think relations will develop both in terms of trade and joint projects,” he said. “But the core US approach to economic relations with Russia has always been investment. Our companies invested more than $100 billion in the Russian economy over many years.”

Some US companies chose to remain in Russia and continue operating successfully, he added, maintaining factories and employing tens of thousands of workers.

“I believe energy companies will be first in line when it comes to new investment in the Russian economy,” Agee said. “Another important area for potential cooperation and investment is the space sector. I believe there is literally trillions of dollars in potential in that field.”

‘President Trump would welcome new investment from Russia’

Asked whether the US market remained open to Russian capital, Agee said the Trump administration generally welcomed foreign investment.

Recalling previous investment projects in the aluminium and fertiliser sectors, he said opportunities for Russian investors continued to exist.

“I think the US market is open to Russian investment and would welcome it,” Agee said. “There were investment projects in aluminium and fertilisers in the past. Opportunities remain. It is difficult to judge how prepared Russian investors are given sanctions-related risks, but in general I can say that the Trump administration would welcome new investment from Russia.”

Agee said American companies were prepared to return if restrictions were eased, even if sanctions were not completely removed.

He stressed that each company would make decisions based on its own risk assessments.

“I know several companies that are ready to return to Russia and restart operations at the first opportunity,” he said. “The critical factor is ensuring that these initial returns are successful. The first companies to come back will demonstrate that everything is functioning normally, and that will encourage others to follow.”

He added that the process would not begin overnight, as technical specifications and legal documentation would first need to be prepared.

“Based on information available to me, discussions on these issues are already taking place.”

Agee also identified data centres as one of the most promising future investment areas, citing Russia’s abundant electricity supplies, cold climate and highly skilled information technology workforce.

“In my personal view, one of the most promising sectors is data centres,” he said. “These facilities require cheap electricity, which Russia has in abundance, a cold climate and a well-trained IT workforce. Russia possesses all of these advantages. I believe this sector has a very strong future, but sanctions must first be removed. After that, developments could move quickly.”

‘Commercial dialogue has become much easier under Trump’

Agee said AmCham maintained productive relations with both Russian and American authorities and continued to serve as a bridge between the two countries.

Comparing the administrations of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, he argued that maintaining commercial dialogue had become significantly easier.

“We have excellent relations with both sides,” he said. “Together with Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, we serve as the only commercial bridge between Russia and the United States. It was much more difficult to preserve that bridge under the Biden administration, but the process has become much easier under President Trump.”

According to Agee, the Trump administration has demonstrated a strong commitment to improving economic dialogue with Russia.

“Today we see two channels of dialogue functioning simultaneously, both cultural and commercial,” he said. “Maintaining communication is the most important element. Under Biden, almost no channels of communication remained open. Now we are moving in the right direction and are also conducting very active cooperation with the Russian government.”

Agee argued that the priorities of the current US administration align closely with the interests of American businesses and said broader geopolitical developments were reinforcing the logic of closer economic cooperation.

He pointed to instability in the Middle East and risks to global shipping routes as factors strengthening the case for partnership.

“The administration’s priorities and the interests of business are fully aligned,” he said. “I think recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz have once again convinced Washington that Russia and the United States are natural partners. America needs what Russia has, and the same is true in reverse. America possesses technologies and products that Russia wants to buy. This is a relationship of genuine interdependence.”

As the world watches tensions escalate in the Middle East, he added, the rationale for deeper economic cooperation between Russia and the United States has become increasingly persuasive.

Concluding the interview, Agee highlighted the importance of easing visa procedures and restoring diplomatic missions between the two countries.

He said overcoming travel barriers was essential to reviving commercial ties.

“This is an extremely relevant issue that we raise constantly,” Agee said. “In the past there was at least a common understanding that diplomatic visas should be addressed first and that consulates should resume operations. We will continue recommending in both Washington and Moscow that this issue be resolved as quickly as possible. Solving it would greatly benefit the business community. We remain hopeful.”