After the Russian genocide of 1864, the Ottoman Empire settled Circassians in the Golan Heights to create a buffer between the Arab tribes and the Jews, who were then few in number. The name Golan comes from a Circassian commander who was killed in the region.
Today, Circassians still struggle to survive in the areas close to the Syrian-Jordanian-Israeli border. This includes Circassians who are citizens of Israel living just below the Lebanese border.
The struggle in the lands that ancient peoples have sought to conquer throughout history, where peace and stability have been absent, continues unabated today.
After the 7th of October Operation Aqsa Flood, the peoples of the Middle East, caught in the flood of blood, are longing for the days when the conflicts will end and the region will be stabilised.
What happens if the war spills over into Lebanon?
Israel demands that Hezbollah withdraw south of the Litani River, in accordance with UN Resolution 1701, so that its citizens in the north can return. If the problem is not resolved diplomatically, Israel has made it clear that it will take military action.
In a possible war between Hezbollah and Israel, Hezbollah would inflict considerable damage on northern Israel, while Israel would turn Beirut into Gaza. In other words, a different course from the war Israel is currently waging with disproportionate force will await it. But in the end it will be a costly confrontation with no winners for either side.
We seem to be moving towards that confrontation, albeit in slow motion. The escalation of the conflict carries great risks for the region and the world, which is already on edge. Various proposals to reduce tensions are also being discussed.
Turkish troops to reinforce UNIFIL?
One of the proposals in the Middle East is to deploy Turkish troops south of the Litani River to create a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah. At the moment there are Turkish troops in UNIFIL (United Nations peacekeeping force) on the Lebanese-Israeli border. There is talk that Turkey will provide security south of the Litani by sending reinforcements to the Turkish forces in the region. In return, Hezbollah will withdraw from the area and hand it over to the Turkish military. Israel would then reassure its citizens living in the north that they would be safe from Hezbollah attacks and allow them to return to their homes.
The reason for the deployment of the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL in the so-called Blue Line area is to prevent border conflicts between Israel and Lebanon and to ensure peace in the region.
In Gaza, the West Bank and southern Lebanon, Israel has not hesitated to target UN personnel in defiance of international law. UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Teneti said: “Three UN military observers and an interpreter were injured by an explosion near their location on the Blue Line and were taken to hospital. The safety of UN personnel must be guaranteed.
It is obvious that UNIFIL, which cannot protect itself, cannot fulfil its mission. Therefore, it is said that the presence of Turkish forces in the region can prevent a possible war and ensure peace, security and stability in the region.
Lebanese Christians against Hezbollah?
Lebanon has a lot to lose in a possible war between Hezbollah and Israel. Civil war is always a real possibility in Lebanon, which has long been at an economic, political and social low.
In some Christian villages near the border, Hezbollah members are exposing themselves to Israel and showing their side.
For example, some residents of Rmaish, a Christian village in Lebanon, claimed to have foiled a Hezbollah attack on Israel from the outskirts of the village. The villagers then captured cars allegedly used by Hezbollah and began posting them on social media. Rmaish is in a geographically advantageous position in relation to some Israeli bases and strategic locations. The people of Rmaish say they are not involved in this war and want to avoid Israeli reprisals. Members of Maronite Christian political parties, including Kataeb, the Lebanese Power Party and the Free Patriotic Movement, have been inciting civil war by ringing church bells to mobilise the population against Hezbollah.
Lebanese don’t want war
Lebanon has been headless for a long time. No government has been formed since the parliamentary elections of September 2022. A new president has still not been elected after Michel Aoun, whose term ended in October 2023 and who left the Baabda Palace. In the event of a possible Israeli war, this situation would plunge the Lebanese, already unable to unite, into civil war. While Israel will bomb Beirut, which it has long coveted, from the air, it will also hit Lebanon’s already inadequate infrastructure. After hitting Rafik Hariri International Airport, the country’s only airport, the Lebanese will be trapped like the Palestinians who are helpless at the Rafah border crossing.
To avoid all this, Hezbollah has so far acted cautiously and strategically. But the time for non-retaliation is fast passing. Its response to the assassinations in Beirut, in Dahiyeh, the heart of Hezbollah, and in the Beqaa has generally been limited. But Israel insists that Hezbollah must withdraw south of the Litani River for the peace and security of its citizens in the north.
A possible war would not be limited to Lebanon, but would also involve Syria and even Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu may have been referring to this regional war when he said before the Aqsa flooding operation on 7 October that the borders in the region would change. Netanyahu knows that his government’s time is running out and that Israel is heading for early elections, and he wants to prolong the war to prevent the collapse of his cabinet.
Can Turkey, in accordance with its historical responsibility, prevent this war in the region by its mere presence, without endangering Turkish troops or becoming actively involved in the conflict? Although we generally volunteer for “patrols”, does such an initiative have a chance of success and would the risks outweigh the rewards? Will the Turkish military leave the area they are in?
