Opinion
Escalation in Ukraine: Step by step to nuclear war?
The Western world seems to have taken another dangerous step in the war in Ukraine. The collective West has provided Ukraine with relatively long-range missiles that will allow Kiev to hit targets on Russian territory. With these weapons systems, Ukraine will now be able to hit targets in Russia. Indeed, it has already struck several targets in recent weeks. In particular, the UCAV attack on Russia’s nuclear missile early warning system has generated a lot of news and commentary, and there has been much discussion about how such actions would be received in Russia.
These reports should be analysed from two perspectives. One is that the Western world has been crossing its own red lines one by one since the beginning of the war, and the other is what effect these efforts have had, or could have, on the course of the war… At the beginning of the war it was almost taboo to give F-16s to Ukraine. Western leaders kept repeating that such a thing would not/should not happen. Over time, however, it has gone beyond the provision of F-16s. Today, it is not only the use of ATACMS missiles against Russian (or often civilian) forces on Ukrainian territory, but also the use of these missiles to hit points on Russian territory. Moreover, Ukraine has already begun to do so. In other words, the West initially underestimated Russia in military terms, as it did in the area of economic sanctions. It seems to have acted under the influence of its own propaganda.
The second question is how much these efforts will affect the war on the ground… Or whether they will affect it at all… Because from the point of view of the collective West, the war in Ukraine is lost. It was already clear that the exaggerated goals set at the beginning of the war would not be achieved. The effective and de facto return to Ukrainian sovereignty of the two ‘republics’ in the Donbass region, which were or are out of Ukrainian control through armed clashes, and the ‘conquest’ of Crimea by Kiev were constantly stated by both Ukraine and the Collective West as the aims of the war. In a Russia pushed back from Ukrainian territory, the government would be overthrown as a result of the possible social unrest that would erupt in Russia, and Putin would be tried as a war criminal in the International Criminal Court (ICC). Even the disintegration of Russia and the seizure of much of its unlimited resources were part of these dreams; but it has not happened, and it is highly likely that it will not happen.
Russia has de facto won the war, but…
Russia won the war de facto. It has not collapsed economically. On the contrary, those who imposed sanctions, especially the European countries, are facing serious economic difficulties. Normally, in such a situation, one would have expected diplomacy to have stepped in long ago and tried to reach a comprehensive compromise with a ceasefire. It should have worked hard to implement the Minsk agreements (2004 and 2005) or to come up with a text similar to the one that was paraphrased in Istanbul in April 2022, just two months after the start of the war. From the moment the Cuban missile crisis broke out (October 1962), there was behind-the-scenes diplomacy, and the crisis was resolved in a few weeks with a compromise as a result of the diplomatic efforts of US President John F. Kennedy on the one hand, Soviet leader Khrushchev on the other, and the foreign ministers and Kennedy’s brother Zinoviev, the US ambassador in Washington, who was Kennedy’s justice minister.
In other words, one party could not dictate its will to the other. Moreover, at the time of the crisis, the United States had an overwhelming three-to-one advantage over the Soviet Union in nuclear weapons since 1962. Now, despite the fact that Russia has a serious superiority over the collective West (the US, UK and France) in terms of the total number of nuclear warheads, their destructive power and delivery systems, America and its allies have closed the door to negotiations since the beginning of the war. The war will continue until Russia is expelled from all Ukrainian territory and Crimea comes under the effective sovereignty of Kiev… What will happen next can be seen in the ICC’s decision to arrest Putin and the statements by Western, especially Eastern, think tanks and officials to dismember Russia.
How far will the escalation go?
In short, the collective West sees negotiations with Russia or Ukraine as a confirmation of the collapse of the unipolar world order. The exaggerated goals they declared at the beginning of the war are also an obstacle to negotiations. For example, although the Russian side repeatedly and extensively explained before and after the start of the war why it was forced into this war, which it called a special military operation, it never publicly announced where the operation would end. Thus, when it came to the negotiating table – and it constantly emphasised its willingness to do so – it did not explain how it could or could not negotiate except on vital issues. On the other hand, Western officials and the Western media, in order to persuade their own public opinion in favour of aid to Ukraine, babbled on and on about the imminent economic collapse of Russia and the destruction of the Russian armed forces, which they claimed were already militarily inferior.
This has made the Western world, at least for the current leadership, psychologically very far from accepting a Russian victory in Ukraine. This leads to a policy of escalation whenever the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which was widely reported in the Western media last year, fails to produce the desired results, or whenever there are signs of collapse and disintegration in the Ukrainian army. As long as the Ukrainian leadership continues to say ‘give us money and weapons and we will fight and deal with it’, this policy will continue, but it is not clear how far this policy of escalation can be sustained. On the other hand, how Russia might respond is also an issue that needs to be addressed.
For example, if Ukraine uses Western weapons systems to hit targets inside Russia, will they be used entirely by the Ukrainian armed forces or by personnel from Western countries who are there as advisers, etc.? Given that it is highly unlikely that they will change the course of the war on the ground, will the Western powers in the next phase send their own personnel to Ukraine and organise attacks against Russia with them?
These questions are quite pertinent, as the collective West has crossed all the red lines that were considered taboo at the beginning of the Ukrainian war. And the most important question: At what point can Russia, which is trying to respond coolly to all these Western initiatives, pull the trigger on nuclear weapons? This is because Moscow has repeatedly stated that it will (not that it can) respond with tactical nuclear weapons if it is attacked with conventional weapons and a policy of escalation, justifying this with the assessment that it would be impossible for it to accept losing the war. Since it is clear what would happen to Russia if it lost the war, it is out of the question for Moscow to consider such a scenario as a possibility.
The statements of the war-mongering European leaders that if the war in Ukraine is lost, Putin will accelerate his expansionist policy and invade Poland and Romania, starting from the Baltics, are, for those who follow the issues closely, far behind even the coffee-table talk in Turkey, but it is interesting that the Secretary General of NATO and the leaders/officials of the European Union are trying to spread this fear. One side of this is certainly to make American companies happy by persuading the people of these countries to buy weapons, but it is also important that more sensible leaders, especially Orban, insist that Europe is preparing for war and that Hungary will be kept out of such a catastrophe no matter what. Similar statements have been made repeatedly by the Slovak Prime Minister Fico, who was assassinated, and by the Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, who is trying to register the foreign funding of NGOs in Georgia, who has repeatedly and explicitly stated that they want to use his country as a second front against Russia and that NGOs are being used for this purpose.
Could it be that these dangerous initiatives, which are likely to change radically if Trump is elected and puts into practice what he is now saying will be US policy, are designed to force Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons before he arrives? Or is it possible to assume that Russia will not resort to nuclear weapons in any case? It should be stressed that we are no longer in a position to say no to any conspiracy scenario. While the US Deep State is doing its best to prevent Trump from coming to power, Trump continues to say that he will destroy this Deep State by openly naming it; however, it is clear that some things are not/will not be a joke. One of the most important of these has to be nuclear weapons.
Opinion
India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships
Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.
India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.
Today, India’s achievements extend beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.
India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.
India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.
The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.
Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.
India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.
These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.
To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.
India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.
The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.
In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.
Opinion
Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa
In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.
History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.
Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.
Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.
AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS
Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.
Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.
In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”
China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.
THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY
It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.
The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.
The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.
Opinion
The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues
BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.
Allan Wilson, Journalist
Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.
“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”
Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.
For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.
The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.
“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.
A statue, a warning
The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.
The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.
For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”
Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.
The shrinking window
Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.
This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.
Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.
A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.
The international dimension
The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”
Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.
For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.
“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.
This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.
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