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Behind Modi’s success and India’s future

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Dr. Duygu Çağla Bayram

For 44 days, India went to the polls in seven phases of general elections. Almost a billion people, more than a tenth of humanity, were eligible to vote. The result was beyond doubt. Modi won a third term, putting his name next to that of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s independence leader and one of the architects of the secular India that Modi is rapidly trying to destroy. Nehru-Gandhi is fortunate to have a weak and dynastic opposition led by the Congress Party. He also has unrivalled propaganda skills. In no other country has its leader’s picture been printed on vaccination certificates, as Modi has done in India…

After the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won India’s 2019 general election, its campaign slogan had also set a target: ‘ab ki baar, 300 paar’ (300 seats this time). It worked; the party and its allies won 353 of the 543 seats in the lower house of the national parliament, returning it to power and giving Narendra Modi a second term as prime minister. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, the BJP adopted almost the same slogan. But the bar was set at 400. It had only been crossed once before: In 1984, by the Congress, now the main opposition party. Could the BJP repeat the feat? Modi’s ambitious slogan ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ for the NDA alliance, targeting more than 400 seats, may have backfired this time, raising fears of constitutional change with such a large majority. The unexpected revival of the Congress party, which has almost doubled its tally for 2019, underlines this shift.

India remains an amalgam of several states that even the most charismatic dictators find difficult to govern completely. As expected, there was no third Modi wave in these elections. Ten years ago, Modi led the BJP to India’s first parliamentary majority in three decades, and five years later, amid tensions with Pakistan, he turned that narrow majority into a more decisive one thanks to growing support. In the 2024 general election, which symbolised a return to pre-Modi India, Indian voters focused on local issues and leaders. In Andhra Pradesh, for example, where the BJP has few local party alliances, its ally Pawan Kalyan, a regional film star who has formed his own party and speaks Telugu, the state’s official language, received a more enthusiastic welcome. Or Maharashtra, which has grown much slower than the national average over the past decade and has overtaken Karnataka and Telangana in per capita income, focused on tough issues such as suicides among indebted farmers; the feeling was that Maharashtra was in decline because Modi had favoured the development of neighbouring Gujarat, his home state. Maharashtra’s disappointment was significant because it has more seats in parliament than any other state except Uttar Pradesh, the heartland of the Hindi belt.

In short, while the urban middle class was generally proud of Modi’s basic narrative for a third term – that a booming economy had boosted India’s global standing – most rural voters were not, still citing daily hardships caused by rising food prices and the urgent need for more government aid.

But in mid-March, India’s Home Minister – and Modi’s close friend – Amit Shah, travelled to Gujarat to launch his re-election campaign, and in a speech to a crowd of BJP workers, argued that the BJP had both improved the lot of ordinary Indians and raised India’s standing in the world, saying that only the BJP could ensure that a ‘small party worker’ like himself and a ‘tea vendor from a poor family’ like Modi were the most powerful men in the country, and that only Modi could make India safe and prosperous.

Foreign policy

Priority foreign policy objectives are to lead the Global South, act as South Asia’s ‘first responder’ and obtain the elusive permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Establishing IMEC, SAGAR, Neighbourhood First policy, mine safety, diaspora, bringing back Bharatiya artefacts, promoting Lord Ram’s legacy are other priority foreign policy objectives. But leadership of the global south is the primary objective. It is clear that India wants to strengthen its position as the voice of the Global South BUT everyone wants to be the leader of the Global South and the question is how to make it a reality…

There was not much talk of regional security during the campaign, just a promise to focus on the Indian Ocean. And the focus on national security was ‘terrorism and naxalism’, not China. And there was not much mention of India’s biggest external challenge, which is China. There was no mention of China, but there was also no mention of America, which is India’s main strategic partner. So the campaign was more about economy – development – welfare – and, of course, Hindu nationalism – than it was about foreign or security policy. But they did seem to focus on multilateralism and soft power issues. At this point, we can expect strong South-South cooperation between India, Brazil and South Africa, also known as IBSA, which will play an important role as the G-20 troika this year.

Domestic policy

Acceleration of infrastructure development along the borders with China, Myanmar and Pakistan, making India the third largest economy, implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, implementation of the Uniform Civil Code, implementation of One Nation, One Election, free ration cards for 800 million citizens for five years, free electricity for poor households, The creation of infrastructure such as women’s hostels and crèches near industrial and commercial centres to encourage women’s participation in the labour force, the expansion of health services to ensure that women lead healthy lives, access to free and quality health care for senior citizens, continued financial support for farmers and the inclusion of car, taxi, truck and other drivers in all social security programmes are among the important promises made.

The Jekyll and Hyde journey continues…

In India, Modi’s quest for communalism, i.e. the transformation of India from a secular nation into an openly Hindu one, and for the Thatcherite medicine needed to modernise the Indian economy will continue. In his third term, Modi could therefore continue to strengthen Hindu nationalism while accelerating economic reforms. For India’s 200 million Muslims and the country’s various NGOs, academics and secular advocates in the media, life is harder than it was a decade ago and is likely to get harder. India is becoming an elective autocracy. But Modi is also a highly effective project manager. The country’s highways and airports are new and modern (although there are allegations that some highway tenders were not awarded to a single contractor, but were broken up into one-mile segments and awarded to smaller contractors…). Each kilometre of road is of a different quality and level. And note the allegations of some Indians who believe that this was done to win political votes for the BJP, but at the expense of the country’s second-rate infrastructure).

India has seen an increase in internet usage, an increase in air travel, 420 million more bank accounts, 110 million more gas connections, 220 million more insured, an increase in the rate of highway construction, more taxpayers and more taxes paid, the export of anti-covid vaccines to many countries, India’s global prestige has increased, and of course free rations for 800 million people…

India has overtaken China as the fastest growing major country in the world. It has also recently overtaken the UK to become the world’s fifth largest economy and China’s most populous. (It should be noted, however, that Modi is the inheritor, not the inventor, of India’s economic growth momentum). Part of what makes Modi so popular is the sense among ordinary voters and elites that he will bring prosperity to India: India is, after all, the world’s fastest-growing major economy and is expected to become the third-largest by 2027.

Indians are better off than they were ten years ago. There is a sense of pride and belief in a better future, while recognising that there are things that can be done differently, especially with regard to minorities. Further reforms are expected to take India to even greater heights in the period ahead. But while poverty is falling, unemployment remains high (around 8 per cent, the highest rate in 40 years). Every young person who can find the money tries to go to Canada, the United Arab Emirates, Australia or countries like Italy. And the poor are still very poor. Yes, the middle class is growing, the rich are getting richer. But the bottom 40 per cent live in abject poverty. Perhaps it is a Western obsession to compare the GDP of a country with 1.40 billion people with that of the UK with 70 million. The UK’s GDP does not reflect the plight of the bottom 40 per cent. Three-quarters of Indians have no social security, no national health security, no insurance, no travel abroad. Pollution is rife. There is little hygiene. Only 5 per cent of Indians own more than 60 per cent of the country’s wealth, while the bottom 50 per cent of the population own just 3 per cent of it,’ says the Oxfam India report.

On the other hand, the space for dissent in India is shrinking. The courts are mostly compliant and docile. At the administrative level, the autonomy of constitutional institutions has suffered a setback as most governments do Modi’s bidding. The richest names in business, notably Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani, work hand in hand with the ruling party. Corporate taxes are falling and regulatory privileges are being handed out to loyal businessmen. But a strategy to rebuild a pluralistic society along religious majoritarian lines is running into trouble.

A 2023 report by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom said: ‘During the year, the Indian government promoted and implemented religiously discriminatory policies at the national, state, and local levels, including laws targeting conversion, interfaith relations, the wearing of the hijab, and cow slaughter that adversely affect Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, Dalits, and Adivasis (indigenous peoples and scheduled tribes). Human Rights Watch summarised the situation of Muslim minorities in India as follows Indian authorities have adopted laws and policies that systematically discriminate against Muslims and stigmatise critics of the government.

The third term is also a mandate to intensify the Hindutva project. This is likely to further deprive India of the culture of polyphonic dissent and tolerance that was the hallmark of the post-independence years. There are already rumblings within the country that the last decade of BJP rule has been a fragment, with more to come… Whatever the word…

Will India become a Hindu society and a dictatorship? No, Indians will find a way to prevent that.

In conclusion, the value of education and scientific research is declining in India, as faith-based knowledge takes precedence over rational thought. I have heard Modi claim that in the past there were plastic surgeons in India who could implant an elephant’s head on a human being, or that planes could not be detected by radar because of clouds, and what is worse, I have heard that there are those who believe all this without hesitation…

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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