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Behind Modi’s success and India’s future

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Dr. Duygu Çağla Bayram

For 44 days, India went to the polls in seven phases of general elections. Almost a billion people, more than a tenth of humanity, were eligible to vote. The result was beyond doubt. Modi won a third term, putting his name next to that of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s independence leader and one of the architects of the secular India that Modi is rapidly trying to destroy. Nehru-Gandhi is fortunate to have a weak and dynastic opposition led by the Congress Party. He also has unrivalled propaganda skills. In no other country has its leader’s picture been printed on vaccination certificates, as Modi has done in India…

After the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won India’s 2019 general election, its campaign slogan had also set a target: ‘ab ki baar, 300 paar’ (300 seats this time). It worked; the party and its allies won 353 of the 543 seats in the lower house of the national parliament, returning it to power and giving Narendra Modi a second term as prime minister. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, the BJP adopted almost the same slogan. But the bar was set at 400. It had only been crossed once before: In 1984, by the Congress, now the main opposition party. Could the BJP repeat the feat? Modi’s ambitious slogan ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ for the NDA alliance, targeting more than 400 seats, may have backfired this time, raising fears of constitutional change with such a large majority. The unexpected revival of the Congress party, which has almost doubled its tally for 2019, underlines this shift.

India remains an amalgam of several states that even the most charismatic dictators find difficult to govern completely. As expected, there was no third Modi wave in these elections. Ten years ago, Modi led the BJP to India’s first parliamentary majority in three decades, and five years later, amid tensions with Pakistan, he turned that narrow majority into a more decisive one thanks to growing support. In the 2024 general election, which symbolised a return to pre-Modi India, Indian voters focused on local issues and leaders. In Andhra Pradesh, for example, where the BJP has few local party alliances, its ally Pawan Kalyan, a regional film star who has formed his own party and speaks Telugu, the state’s official language, received a more enthusiastic welcome. Or Maharashtra, which has grown much slower than the national average over the past decade and has overtaken Karnataka and Telangana in per capita income, focused on tough issues such as suicides among indebted farmers; the feeling was that Maharashtra was in decline because Modi had favoured the development of neighbouring Gujarat, his home state. Maharashtra’s disappointment was significant because it has more seats in parliament than any other state except Uttar Pradesh, the heartland of the Hindi belt.

In short, while the urban middle class was generally proud of Modi’s basic narrative for a third term – that a booming economy had boosted India’s global standing – most rural voters were not, still citing daily hardships caused by rising food prices and the urgent need for more government aid.

But in mid-March, India’s Home Minister – and Modi’s close friend – Amit Shah, travelled to Gujarat to launch his re-election campaign, and in a speech to a crowd of BJP workers, argued that the BJP had both improved the lot of ordinary Indians and raised India’s standing in the world, saying that only the BJP could ensure that a ‘small party worker’ like himself and a ‘tea vendor from a poor family’ like Modi were the most powerful men in the country, and that only Modi could make India safe and prosperous.

Foreign policy

Priority foreign policy objectives are to lead the Global South, act as South Asia’s ‘first responder’ and obtain the elusive permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Establishing IMEC, SAGAR, Neighbourhood First policy, mine safety, diaspora, bringing back Bharatiya artefacts, promoting Lord Ram’s legacy are other priority foreign policy objectives. But leadership of the global south is the primary objective. It is clear that India wants to strengthen its position as the voice of the Global South BUT everyone wants to be the leader of the Global South and the question is how to make it a reality…

There was not much talk of regional security during the campaign, just a promise to focus on the Indian Ocean. And the focus on national security was ‘terrorism and naxalism’, not China. And there was not much mention of India’s biggest external challenge, which is China. There was no mention of China, but there was also no mention of America, which is India’s main strategic partner. So the campaign was more about economy – development – welfare – and, of course, Hindu nationalism – than it was about foreign or security policy. But they did seem to focus on multilateralism and soft power issues. At this point, we can expect strong South-South cooperation between India, Brazil and South Africa, also known as IBSA, which will play an important role as the G-20 troika this year.

Domestic policy

Acceleration of infrastructure development along the borders with China, Myanmar and Pakistan, making India the third largest economy, implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, implementation of the Uniform Civil Code, implementation of One Nation, One Election, free ration cards for 800 million citizens for five years, free electricity for poor households, The creation of infrastructure such as women’s hostels and crèches near industrial and commercial centres to encourage women’s participation in the labour force, the expansion of health services to ensure that women lead healthy lives, access to free and quality health care for senior citizens, continued financial support for farmers and the inclusion of car, taxi, truck and other drivers in all social security programmes are among the important promises made.

The Jekyll and Hyde journey continues…

In India, Modi’s quest for communalism, i.e. the transformation of India from a secular nation into an openly Hindu one, and for the Thatcherite medicine needed to modernise the Indian economy will continue. In his third term, Modi could therefore continue to strengthen Hindu nationalism while accelerating economic reforms. For India’s 200 million Muslims and the country’s various NGOs, academics and secular advocates in the media, life is harder than it was a decade ago and is likely to get harder. India is becoming an elective autocracy. But Modi is also a highly effective project manager. The country’s highways and airports are new and modern (although there are allegations that some highway tenders were not awarded to a single contractor, but were broken up into one-mile segments and awarded to smaller contractors…). Each kilometre of road is of a different quality and level. And note the allegations of some Indians who believe that this was done to win political votes for the BJP, but at the expense of the country’s second-rate infrastructure).

India has seen an increase in internet usage, an increase in air travel, 420 million more bank accounts, 110 million more gas connections, 220 million more insured, an increase in the rate of highway construction, more taxpayers and more taxes paid, the export of anti-covid vaccines to many countries, India’s global prestige has increased, and of course free rations for 800 million people…

India has overtaken China as the fastest growing major country in the world. It has also recently overtaken the UK to become the world’s fifth largest economy and China’s most populous. (It should be noted, however, that Modi is the inheritor, not the inventor, of India’s economic growth momentum). Part of what makes Modi so popular is the sense among ordinary voters and elites that he will bring prosperity to India: India is, after all, the world’s fastest-growing major economy and is expected to become the third-largest by 2027.

Indians are better off than they were ten years ago. There is a sense of pride and belief in a better future, while recognising that there are things that can be done differently, especially with regard to minorities. Further reforms are expected to take India to even greater heights in the period ahead. But while poverty is falling, unemployment remains high (around 8 per cent, the highest rate in 40 years). Every young person who can find the money tries to go to Canada, the United Arab Emirates, Australia or countries like Italy. And the poor are still very poor. Yes, the middle class is growing, the rich are getting richer. But the bottom 40 per cent live in abject poverty. Perhaps it is a Western obsession to compare the GDP of a country with 1.40 billion people with that of the UK with 70 million. The UK’s GDP does not reflect the plight of the bottom 40 per cent. Three-quarters of Indians have no social security, no national health security, no insurance, no travel abroad. Pollution is rife. There is little hygiene. Only 5 per cent of Indians own more than 60 per cent of the country’s wealth, while the bottom 50 per cent of the population own just 3 per cent of it,’ says the Oxfam India report.

On the other hand, the space for dissent in India is shrinking. The courts are mostly compliant and docile. At the administrative level, the autonomy of constitutional institutions has suffered a setback as most governments do Modi’s bidding. The richest names in business, notably Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani, work hand in hand with the ruling party. Corporate taxes are falling and regulatory privileges are being handed out to loyal businessmen. But a strategy to rebuild a pluralistic society along religious majoritarian lines is running into trouble.

A 2023 report by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom said: ‘During the year, the Indian government promoted and implemented religiously discriminatory policies at the national, state, and local levels, including laws targeting conversion, interfaith relations, the wearing of the hijab, and cow slaughter that adversely affect Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, Dalits, and Adivasis (indigenous peoples and scheduled tribes). Human Rights Watch summarised the situation of Muslim minorities in India as follows Indian authorities have adopted laws and policies that systematically discriminate against Muslims and stigmatise critics of the government.

The third term is also a mandate to intensify the Hindutva project. This is likely to further deprive India of the culture of polyphonic dissent and tolerance that was the hallmark of the post-independence years. There are already rumblings within the country that the last decade of BJP rule has been a fragment, with more to come… Whatever the word…

Will India become a Hindu society and a dictatorship? No, Indians will find a way to prevent that.

In conclusion, the value of education and scientific research is declining in India, as faith-based knowledge takes precedence over rational thought. I have heard Modi claim that in the past there were plastic surgeons in India who could implant an elephant’s head on a human being, or that planes could not be detected by radar because of clouds, and what is worse, I have heard that there are those who believe all this without hesitation…

Opinion

Israeli elections: The driver may change, but the destination remains the same

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Haider Al-Aila, Abu Al-Amir

Anyone who views the Israeli elections as a battle between the right and the left is mistaken. The so-called Israeli left, in the conventional political sense, has long ceased to be a viable electoral force. What is actually unfolding is a struggle within the Zionist camp itself: a hardline religious and nationalist right led by Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies, versus a secular and centrist right seeking to reshape the political landscape by ousting him.

Netanyahu, having mastered the art of managing the Israeli right over the years, understands that his real vulnerability lies not merely in a Likud defeat, but in the disintegration of the broader right-wing bloc. In Israel’s electoral system—which requires parties to cross a 3.25% electoral threshold to enter the Knesset and mandates a 61-seat majority to form a government—smaller right-wing factions falling below that cutoff could deprive his bloc of the seats needed to govern. Consequently, Netanyahu has spent recent weeks fighting to unify fringe parties and prevent the fragmentation of the right-wing vote.

Herein lies the central paradox of the election: while Netanyahu’s camp is far more ideologically defined than its rivals, it is also markedly more fragile. Though it unites nationalist, religious, and ultra-Orthodox factions, these groups remain deeply divided over issues such as military conscription, the balance between religion and state, judicial governance, and even Netanyahu’s personal political future.

Conversely, the opposing camp—where leadership has increasingly shifted toward Gadi Eisenkot amid the waning influence of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid—is not a cohesive ideological movement. Rather, it is a broad coalition united primarily by a singular goal: removing Netanyahu from power.

Eisenkot is attempting to appeal to the political center, the secular right, and voters eager to replace Netanyahu without abandoning the mainstream Zionist consensus on security issues and political settlements. Indeed, Eisenkot himself does not support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the foreseeable future.

This captures the core reality of today’s Israeli politics: voters heading to the polls are not choosing between two fundamentally opposed visions for the Palestinian issue, but between competing approaches to governing Israel in the wake of October 7.

Netanyahu’s message to the electorate is straightforward: security demands an uncompromising, unapologetic right wing. Eisenkot, however, offers a different critique: the problem lies not in Israel’s military capability, but in the leadership that mismanaged it and failed to prevent the October 7 attacks. For him, leadership must change to restore institutional trust and state integrity. Thus, accountability for the failures of October 7 has emerged as the defining battleground of the campaign against Netanyahu.

Yet Eisenkot’s bloc harbors its own internal contradictions. It is far from a unified political movement, operating instead as a loose, pragmatic alliance of figures who lack a shared long-term agenda. To maximize their numbers, several opposition parties have already begun coordinating surplus vote-sharing agreements to minimize wasted ballots.

This dynamic brings the “Arab dilemma” to the fore.

If neither Jewish-led bloc achieves a 61-seat majority, Arab Knesset members could hold the balance of power, either by joining a governing coalition or backing one from the outside. This is no trivial variable; higher turnout among Arab citizens could decisively alter seat distribution, particularly given that their participation in previous elections fell well below the national average.

The profound irony, however, is that while anti-Netanyahu forces urge Arab citizens to turn out and “save democracy,” large segments of the Zionist establishment still refuse to treat them as legitimate governing partners. Notably, Bennett—competing fiercely against Netanyahu—has explicitly demanded a coalition restricted exclusively to Zionist parties, despite having presided over a 2021 government that relied directly on an Arab party.

Consequently, should Eisenkot’s camp require Arab support to form a government, it may secure an electoral victory tainted by political hypocrisy: Netanyahu falls, yet Arab lawmakers (such as Mansour Abbas’s bloc) are once again reduced to numerical leverage rather than genuine partners in shaping state policy.

For Palestinians, it is vital not to succumb to the illusion that Netanyahu’s downfall equates to the demise of the Israeli right or the resurrection of an Israeli peace camp. The Palestinian question runs far deeper than the name of the Israeli prime minister.

Netanyahu may fall, Eisenkot may rise, Bennett may return, and a new cabinet may be formed with different faces. Yet the overarching current within Israeli society, particularly after October 7, remains thoroughly detached from any political solution that recognizes the Palestinian right to an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital.

The upcoming Israeli elections are not, at their core, a contest between right and left. They are a contest between one right-wing faction that seeks to continue down the current path under Netanyahu, and another that seeks to replace the driver while keeping the vehicle on the exact same road—differing only in speed and driving style.

This is precisely where the lesson lies for the Palestinians: they must not expect a miracle from the Israeli ballot box. Genuine transformation cannot be measured merely by who occupies the Prime Minister’s Office, but by whether Israeli society is willing to confront the deeper trajectory that led to October 7 and its aftermath.

The driver may change, and the style of driving may shift, but the defining question for Palestinians remains: Will the destination ever change?

This is what Palestinians must recognize clearly. Netanyahu is neither the entirety of the problem, nor is his departure the ultimate solution. Even his rivals, who march under the banner of change, operate within a political and social paradigm that has only grown more right-wing, entrenched, and hostile toward Palestinian rights.

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Gaza exposes the myth of the “most moral army in the world”

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Haider Al-Aila, Gaza

Calling the Israeli military the “most moral army in the world” is a claim thoroughly shattered by the facts on the ground and the atrocities committed against the Palestinian people. What morality can an army claim when it massacres civilians, collapses homes on top of families, loots private property, and desecrates the dead—all while its leadership projects an air of moral supremacy to the world?

Morality is not measured by slogans or military technology; it is defined by how force is applied and the degree of respect shown for human life and dignity. From this perspective, Israel’s devastating war on Gaza reveals systematic, criminal practices that cannot be justified under any pretext of security or self-defense.

When killing becomes a display of power

Among the most harrowing dimensions of this war is the relentless bombardment that turns inhabited homes into mass graves, with utter disregard for women, children, and the elderly. In the densely populated Gaza Strip, widespread strikes have decimated entire neighborhoods, burying thousands of families beneath the rubble.

Equally horrifying are the reports of mass graves uncovered near Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City and Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. These sites revealed the bodies of women and the elderly, some bearing signs of execution, binding, and stripped of clothing. Eyewitnesses documented similar mass graves near the Indonesian Hospital in northern Gaza. The United Nations has rightfully demanded independent, transparent investigations to establish accountability for these apparent war crimes.

The sanctity of the dead is a fundamental human right. Any violation of this principle demands rigorous investigation and prosecution—free from diplomatic cover or denial.

A single target as a pretext to level entire blocks

I do not speak here merely from reports; I speak as a firsthand witness in Gaza. I have watched entire residential blocks—housing vulnerable families—flattened under the pretext of targeting a single individual. Time and again, the Israeli military has tracked a target via reconnaissance drones, waited until he entered a crowded residential building, and then brought the entire structure down. In doing so, they have wiped out dozens of civilians who had absolutely no connection to the individual being pursued.

This reality raises a damning question: If an army possesses the surveillance technology to track a target with surgical precision, why wait to destroy the building while innocent civilians are inside? What crime did these families commit to pay with their lives?

Deliberately subjecting civilians to catastrophic harm without taking the legally required precautions cannot be excused by the presence of a target. It is a direct violation of International Humanitarian Law and constitutes unlawful collective punishment. These are not abstract statistics or fleeting screen images to me; they are the lived realities of families wiped out in an instant.

Looting at gunpoint

The degradation extends beyond killing and physical destruction. Human rights organizations and a 2024 UN Commission of Inquiry have documented widespread instances of Israeli soldiers looting Palestinian homes—stealing cash, gold, jewelry, and electronics.

Compounding the crime, soldiers have frequently posted videos on social media mocking the victims, showing off stolen goods, and celebrating the destruction of civilian property. Pillaging the belongings of displaced or deceased civilians is not military heroism; it is a war crime and an assault on human dignity.

The racism that precedes the bullet

These actions cannot be separated from a dehumanizing, racist discourse that treats Palestinians as subhuman and undeserving of life. When national supremacy is normalized and Palestinian lives are deemed worthless, military atrocities become the inevitable outcome. In the eyes of an indoctrinated soldier, a dehumanized population becomes an open target for slaughter, torture, and humiliation.

This is not a condemnation of Jewish people, who are not a monolith; rather, it is an indictment of the racist Zionist ideology, the brutal policies of the occupation, and all who enable or justify these crimes.

When killing becomes a hunting game

Among the most chilling accounts are videos and testimonies of snipers targeting young Palestinians as if hunting prey. Soldiers have been filmed stalking victims from fortified positions, then cheering and celebrating as their bullets hit their mark.

Killing here ceases to be an act of war; it becomes sport. What moral decay allows human death to become a source of entertainment? It strips the victim of their humanity, reducing someone with dreams, a future, and a family to mere target practice.

Technology without morality

The Israeli military boasts advanced surveillance, artificial intelligence, and precision weaponry. Yet technological superiority does not confer moral superiority, nor does it grant an army a blank check to use disproportionate force.

International Humanitarian Law mandates distinction, proportionality, and precaution. Technology merely amplifies the capacity for violence; it does not legitimize mass slaughter, nor does it grant immunity from accountability.

Internal dissent: “I can no longer bear the silence”

Cracks in the narrative have also emerged from within. A widely circulated account attributed to Israeli reserve Major Avdar Shailovsky, titled “I Can No Longer Bear the Silence” (published by the Jerusalem News Agency), recounts his refusal to remain silent about the horrors he witnessed in Gaza.

The account details the deliberate targeting of civilian gatherings, aid distribution points, and the sniping of women and children, alongside systemic mockery of Palestinian suffering. Shailovsky expressed profound remorse for his complicity and called for a rejection of the racist indoctrination driving the military. While such voices of conscience exist within Israeli society, they remain a marginalized minority against a prevailing culture of right-wing extremism that condones the occupation and the erasure of Palestinian rights.

What morality remains?

The rhetoric driving this war was made clear early on when former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant referred to Palestinians as “human animals.” Such language laid the ideological groundwork for the atrocities that followed.

Public relations campaigns cannot erase the reality on the ground in Gaza. Neither military power nor foreign diplomatic protection can hide the mass graves or silence the voices of the victims.

In Gaza, I have seen multistory towers turned into tombs and human beings reduced to collateral damage by an army that views their existence as worthless. How can there be any talk of moral superiority when the dead lie trapped under concrete, emergency responders are barred from reaching them, and a nation’s suffering is trivialized?

Gaza has not only shattered the myth of the “most moral army in the world”—it has placed the conscience of the entire international community on trial.

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Imperialism, economic power, and foreign policy

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In its shortest, leanest, and simplest definition, foreign policy is the management of all manner of relations entered into with other countries. Foreign policy is a costly undertaking. It demands extensive knowledge, skill, experience, and leadership. For the price of failure is heavy, in every respect. A country’s reputation, influence, and deterrence, as well as its human resources, finances, and borders, are all directly affected by the success or failure of its foreign policy.

The program researching the costs of war at Brown University in the US (see https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/paper/overview) determined in its research that post-9/11 US attacks and invasions imposed an economic burden of $8 trillion and caused the direct or indirect deaths of more than 4.5 million people. The report also noted that, alongside the financial burden of these attacks and invasions, they displaced millions of people and exacerbated global environmental pollution.

Today, to understand the decline in US imperialism’s capacity for hegemony and its ecological dominance, one must first understand the burden borne by the US economy. For the US is no longer a country that accounts for more than half of global output, as it did in the aftermath of World War II. Its share of total production stands at around 20%. The social, class, and cultural fault lines within the country, as well as the divide between rich and poor, run exceptionally deep. The combined debt of the public sector, private corporations, and households has approached $200 trillion. The total debt of the federal government has exceeded $40 trillion (see: https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html).

What does the US prioritize when lending?

The 3 largest creditors to the US, according to June 2026 data, are Japan ($1.117 trillion), the United Kingdom ($940 billion), and China ($633 billion). Israel is the country receiving the greatest amount of US economic and military aid in the Middle East, followed by Egypt. Ukraine, too, has received substantial economic and military aid, funds, and loans from the US. One must also not forget that the US lends money to its allies, including Ukraine, so that they will purchase US goods, weapons, and aircraft. The US dictates how they may use this debt. What is more, it has been doing this for years. During World War II, it lent substantial sums to its allies. Britain, for instance, was only able to pay off this debt in 2006; and Britain, alongside Israel, is one of the two strategic allies of the US. Rather than lending directly to countries undergoing economic crises, the US extends credit through the IMF and the World Bank. When lending, the US takes into account not only its economic priorities but also its strategic and geopolitical ones.

As an imperialist power, the US concerns itself with the entire world. It strives to remain effective and influential on a global scale. Yet just as the power of the US itself has waned, its allies no longer possess their former strength either, especially the Europeans. The European Union, an imperialist project, is not a global actor. There is no such cohesion, no such harmony within the European Union. Nor does it have such an objective. Furthermore, the European Union possesses neither the power, nor the will, nor the courage for this. Germany, the leader of the European Union, seeks merely to exert influence in its immediate neighbourhood: the Balkans, the Baltics, the Black Sea, and the Caucasus; that is all. And the extent to which it succeeds even in this remains open to debate. Moreover, there is not a single country in the world that desires or expects the European Union to step forward, take initiative, and project power globally in distant lands.

The methods used by imperialism

When reflecting on the relationship between imperialism and foreign policy, one should remember that the tools and methods employed by imperialism have evolved. In the 19th century, for example, imperialism resorted to cruder, more brutal, and more barbaric methods. Later, while continuing to turn to military methods and brute force, it systematically deployed economic and financial instruments, cultural hegemony, and sophisticated instruments and methods of governance, utilizing them with far greater frequency.

One of the lessons history teaches is this: every empire, every great power that grows too vast, expands too far, and stretches itself too thin also hastens its own demise. This condition is natural. It is inevitable. This holds true for the Roman Empire, just as it does for the Ottoman Empire, which ruled over immense territories stretching from the Caucasus to the gates of Vienna, and from the Arabian Peninsula to North Africa. For governance and rule become increasingly difficult. For the financial burden mounts. For the bureaucracy grows cumbersome. For centrifugal tendencies come to the fore, competition among local powers far from the centre sharpens, and tensions between provincial power bases escalate. For difficulties arise in implementing necessary administrative and military reforms and in taking the required steps.

In summary, when the predicament of the US is evaluated in the light of this iron law of history, the decline in US power becomes all the clearer.

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