Dr. Duygu Çağla Bayram
For 44 days, India went to the polls in seven phases of general elections. Almost a billion people, more than a tenth of humanity, were eligible to vote. The result was beyond doubt. Modi won a third term, putting his name next to that of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s independence leader and one of the architects of the secular India that Modi is rapidly trying to destroy. Nehru-Gandhi is fortunate to have a weak and dynastic opposition led by the Congress Party. He also has unrivalled propaganda skills. In no other country has its leader’s picture been printed on vaccination certificates, as Modi has done in India…
After the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won India’s 2019 general election, its campaign slogan had also set a target: ‘ab ki baar, 300 paar’ (300 seats this time). It worked; the party and its allies won 353 of the 543 seats in the lower house of the national parliament, returning it to power and giving Narendra Modi a second term as prime minister. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, the BJP adopted almost the same slogan. But the bar was set at 400. It had only been crossed once before: In 1984, by the Congress, now the main opposition party. Could the BJP repeat the feat? Modi’s ambitious slogan ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ for the NDA alliance, targeting more than 400 seats, may have backfired this time, raising fears of constitutional change with such a large majority. The unexpected revival of the Congress party, which has almost doubled its tally for 2019, underlines this shift.
India remains an amalgam of several states that even the most charismatic dictators find difficult to govern completely. As expected, there was no third Modi wave in these elections. Ten years ago, Modi led the BJP to India’s first parliamentary majority in three decades, and five years later, amid tensions with Pakistan, he turned that narrow majority into a more decisive one thanks to growing support. In the 2024 general election, which symbolised a return to pre-Modi India, Indian voters focused on local issues and leaders. In Andhra Pradesh, for example, where the BJP has few local party alliances, its ally Pawan Kalyan, a regional film star who has formed his own party and speaks Telugu, the state’s official language, received a more enthusiastic welcome. Or Maharashtra, which has grown much slower than the national average over the past decade and has overtaken Karnataka and Telangana in per capita income, focused on tough issues such as suicides among indebted farmers; the feeling was that Maharashtra was in decline because Modi had favoured the development of neighbouring Gujarat, his home state. Maharashtra’s disappointment was significant because it has more seats in parliament than any other state except Uttar Pradesh, the heartland of the Hindi belt.
In short, while the urban middle class was generally proud of Modi’s basic narrative for a third term – that a booming economy had boosted India’s global standing – most rural voters were not, still citing daily hardships caused by rising food prices and the urgent need for more government aid.
But in mid-March, India’s Home Minister – and Modi’s close friend – Amit Shah, travelled to Gujarat to launch his re-election campaign, and in a speech to a crowd of BJP workers, argued that the BJP had both improved the lot of ordinary Indians and raised India’s standing in the world, saying that only the BJP could ensure that a ‘small party worker’ like himself and a ‘tea vendor from a poor family’ like Modi were the most powerful men in the country, and that only Modi could make India safe and prosperous.
Foreign policy
Priority foreign policy objectives are to lead the Global South, act as South Asia’s ‘first responder’ and obtain the elusive permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Establishing IMEC, SAGAR, Neighbourhood First policy, mine safety, diaspora, bringing back Bharatiya artefacts, promoting Lord Ram’s legacy are other priority foreign policy objectives. But leadership of the global south is the primary objective. It is clear that India wants to strengthen its position as the voice of the Global South BUT everyone wants to be the leader of the Global South and the question is how to make it a reality…
There was not much talk of regional security during the campaign, just a promise to focus on the Indian Ocean. And the focus on national security was ‘terrorism and naxalism’, not China. And there was not much mention of India’s biggest external challenge, which is China. There was no mention of China, but there was also no mention of America, which is India’s main strategic partner. So the campaign was more about economy – development – welfare – and, of course, Hindu nationalism – than it was about foreign or security policy. But they did seem to focus on multilateralism and soft power issues. At this point, we can expect strong South-South cooperation between India, Brazil and South Africa, also known as IBSA, which will play an important role as the G-20 troika this year.
Domestic policy
Acceleration of infrastructure development along the borders with China, Myanmar and Pakistan, making India the third largest economy, implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, implementation of the Uniform Civil Code, implementation of One Nation, One Election, free ration cards for 800 million citizens for five years, free electricity for poor households, The creation of infrastructure such as women’s hostels and crèches near industrial and commercial centres to encourage women’s participation in the labour force, the expansion of health services to ensure that women lead healthy lives, access to free and quality health care for senior citizens, continued financial support for farmers and the inclusion of car, taxi, truck and other drivers in all social security programmes are among the important promises made.
The Jekyll and Hyde journey continues…
In India, Modi’s quest for communalism, i.e. the transformation of India from a secular nation into an openly Hindu one, and for the Thatcherite medicine needed to modernise the Indian economy will continue. In his third term, Modi could therefore continue to strengthen Hindu nationalism while accelerating economic reforms. For India’s 200 million Muslims and the country’s various NGOs, academics and secular advocates in the media, life is harder than it was a decade ago and is likely to get harder. India is becoming an elective autocracy. But Modi is also a highly effective project manager. The country’s highways and airports are new and modern (although there are allegations that some highway tenders were not awarded to a single contractor, but were broken up into one-mile segments and awarded to smaller contractors…). Each kilometre of road is of a different quality and level. And note the allegations of some Indians who believe that this was done to win political votes for the BJP, but at the expense of the country’s second-rate infrastructure).
India has seen an increase in internet usage, an increase in air travel, 420 million more bank accounts, 110 million more gas connections, 220 million more insured, an increase in the rate of highway construction, more taxpayers and more taxes paid, the export of anti-covid vaccines to many countries, India’s global prestige has increased, and of course free rations for 800 million people…
India has overtaken China as the fastest growing major country in the world. It has also recently overtaken the UK to become the world’s fifth largest economy and China’s most populous. (It should be noted, however, that Modi is the inheritor, not the inventor, of India’s economic growth momentum). Part of what makes Modi so popular is the sense among ordinary voters and elites that he will bring prosperity to India: India is, after all, the world’s fastest-growing major economy and is expected to become the third-largest by 2027.
Indians are better off than they were ten years ago. There is a sense of pride and belief in a better future, while recognising that there are things that can be done differently, especially with regard to minorities. Further reforms are expected to take India to even greater heights in the period ahead. But while poverty is falling, unemployment remains high (around 8 per cent, the highest rate in 40 years). Every young person who can find the money tries to go to Canada, the United Arab Emirates, Australia or countries like Italy. And the poor are still very poor. Yes, the middle class is growing, the rich are getting richer. But the bottom 40 per cent live in abject poverty. Perhaps it is a Western obsession to compare the GDP of a country with 1.40 billion people with that of the UK with 70 million. The UK’s GDP does not reflect the plight of the bottom 40 per cent. Three-quarters of Indians have no social security, no national health security, no insurance, no travel abroad. Pollution is rife. There is little hygiene. Only 5 per cent of Indians own more than 60 per cent of the country’s wealth, while the bottom 50 per cent of the population own just 3 per cent of it,’ says the Oxfam India report.
On the other hand, the space for dissent in India is shrinking. The courts are mostly compliant and docile. At the administrative level, the autonomy of constitutional institutions has suffered a setback as most governments do Modi’s bidding. The richest names in business, notably Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani, work hand in hand with the ruling party. Corporate taxes are falling and regulatory privileges are being handed out to loyal businessmen. But a strategy to rebuild a pluralistic society along religious majoritarian lines is running into trouble.
A 2023 report by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom said: ‘During the year, the Indian government promoted and implemented religiously discriminatory policies at the national, state, and local levels, including laws targeting conversion, interfaith relations, the wearing of the hijab, and cow slaughter that adversely affect Muslims, Christians, Sikhs, Dalits, and Adivasis (indigenous peoples and scheduled tribes). Human Rights Watch summarised the situation of Muslim minorities in India as follows Indian authorities have adopted laws and policies that systematically discriminate against Muslims and stigmatise critics of the government.
The third term is also a mandate to intensify the Hindutva project. This is likely to further deprive India of the culture of polyphonic dissent and tolerance that was the hallmark of the post-independence years. There are already rumblings within the country that the last decade of BJP rule has been a fragment, with more to come… Whatever the word…
Will India become a Hindu society and a dictatorship? No, Indians will find a way to prevent that.
In conclusion, the value of education and scientific research is declining in India, as faith-based knowledge takes precedence over rational thought. I have heard Modi claim that in the past there were plastic surgeons in India who could implant an elephant’s head on a human being, or that planes could not be detected by radar because of clouds, and what is worse, I have heard that there are those who believe all this without hesitation…
