Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula as Brazil election heads to run-off

Brazil’s presidential contest between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro is heading to a second round, as the Bolsonaro family secured a full contingent in the Senate.

Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election, edging out incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. However, he failed to secure the more than 50% of the vote required to win outright in a single round.

A run-off vote between the two candidates will take place on 25 October.

Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a failed coup attempt after losing the last election.

The race was neck and neck; during the campaign, President Lula had maintained a slight lead in the polls. With 99% of the votes counted, Bolsonaro took 47.03%, while Lula garnered 45.16%.

Bolsonaro’s result exceeded expectations, suggesting that the run-off is now within his grasp given that several other presidential candidates eliminated in the first round were right-wing alternatives.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) also emerged as the party securing the largest number of governors, senators, and federal deputies, according to results announced so far.

This means the party is expected to wield the greatest influence in Congress.

After casting his ballot, the 80-year-old Lula warned that the election was a choice between democracy and “barbarism”.

The 45-year-old Bolsonaro said he wanted to “liberate the Brazilian people”.

After winning election in 2002 and 2006, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 by a margin of less than 2%, in what was the most closely fought presidential contest in Brazil’s history.

Following that election, on 8 January 2023, supporters of Bolsonaro ransacked government buildings.

Jair Bolsonaro was barred from running for office again even before he began serving his prison sentence; he endorsed the candidacy of his eldest son, Flavio, in his place.

Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle, was also elected to the Senate on Sunday.

Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged that, if elected, he will pardon his father and the supporters responsible for the 8 January riots.

Bolsonaro is more popular in the southern regions, among wealthier voters, and among evangelical Christians.

In a statement on Sunday, Bolsonaro said he was “very happy” to have finished ahead of Lula in the first round and expressed confidence that he would secure victory in the run-off in three weeks.

“I am very happy about the real possibility that in three weeks Brazil will give a definitive answer by electing a modern government,” the right-wing politician said.

Lula acknowledged that the election result was “unexpected” but stressed that the race was not over.

Speaking on Sunday, Lula said: “I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round. The match is about to begin. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win the hearts of the Brazilian people.”

During the campaign, President Lula made the issue of “sovereignty” a cornerstone of his platform, periodically accusing the US of attempting to interfere in and influence Brazil’s elections.

Lula pledged to increase defence spending.

Earlier this year, Flavio Bolsonaro persuaded the US to designate Brazil’s two largest gangs as “terrorist organisations”.

In July, Brazil refused to grant visas to two US State Department officials. Brazil alleged that these officials had sought to cast doubt on the country’s voting system, a claim the US termed “unfounded”.

This development followed claims that Flavio Bolsonaro told a group of foreign diplomats that Brazil’s voting machines shared the same origin as those in Venezuela.

Last year, Donald Trump used Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial as a pretext to impose tariffs on Brazil and sanction several senior officials and judges.

Should Flavio Bolsonaro win, Brazil is likely to join the US “Shield of the Americas” coalition against drug trafficking and pursue closer cooperation with the US.

However, Bolsonaro has pledged to maintain an “economically pragmatic” relationship with China, which has overtaken the US as Brazil’s largest trading partner and remains a vital customer for Brazilian soy and beef exports.

Corruption became a central theme of the campaign following a scandal involving Daniel Vorcaro, a now-imprisoned banker who orchestrated one of Brazil’s largest financial frauds, entangling senior figures from across the political spectrum.

Flavio Bolsonaro acknowledged that he had sought financing from Vorcaro for a biographical film about his father.

Lula was indirectly touched by the scandal after police alleged that Vorcaro sought assistance from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to evade arrest. Moraes denies any wrongdoing.

Although Moraes was not appointed by Lula, he is viewed as an ally of the president because he presided over Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial.

Crime and insecurity were also among the electorate’s foremost concerns. While Brazil’s homicide rate has fallen, street offences that are highly visible to voters, such as mobile phone theft, have risen.

Violence and drug trafficking continue to be viewed as major problems.

Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to designate Brazilian gangs as terrorists and construct maximum-security prisons modelled on those in El Salvador.

His father relaxed gun-ownership restrictions during his presidency.

While Lula criticised the US designation of Brazilian gangs as terrorist organisations, he introduced several reforms aimed at disrupting the financial networks of organised crime syndicates, improving homicide investigations, and investing in prisons.

The economy was likewise at the centre of the campaign, amid high levels of personal debt and slowing growth.

Lula built his legacy through a series of social welfare programmes, most notably the Bolsa Familia initiative, which pays families conditional on keeping children in education and ensuring they receive healthcare such as vaccinations.

He also built more universities. These programmes were credited with lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty.

He supported increased investment in data centres and rare earth minerals, where Brazil holds rich resources, securing active state participation to ensure Brazil benefits.

He also backed oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River, which drew controversy among environmentalists.

However, Lula possesses a track record of tightening environmental protections and reducing the deforestation rate in the Amazon.

Deforestation increased significantly during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency.

Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to introduce a cap on public debt, cut government spending, revise welfare programmes, and bolster the critical minerals sector.

Brazil accounts for approximately 31% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) of Latin America and the Caribbean.

Writing on his personal blog, Michael Roberts noted that Lula’s commitment to higher public spending was facing scrutiny.

According to Roberts, Lula’s advisers are secretly weighing cuts to healthcare services as well as benefits for the elderly and disabled.

Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is openly calling for significant cuts to social spending and public investment, accompanied by the privatisation of state assets.

According to Roberts, both candidates are discussing austerity because, despite an improvement in living standards during the first three years of Lula’s mandate, those gains began to erode last year.

Economic growth has fallen below an annual rate of 2%, while the manufacturing and industrial sectors are declining rapidly.