Connect with us

Middle East

Gaza ceasefire: The bell of war ringing again

Published

on

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas did not last long, and eventually the bell for war had sounded again. According to media reports, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of Israeli airstrikes. Israeli officials also warned that the gates of hell had opened on Gaza. The United States also announced that it had responded positively to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to resume the war.

The question: Why has the Gaza war resumed?

First: These days, US President Donald Trump has been feverishly pushing for talks with Iran, which is not pleasing to the Israeli side. Trump has repeatedly emphasized the need to negotiate with Iran before pursuing other options.

More importantly, he recently sent a letter addressed to the Iranian Leader and also informed the media. The content of the letter is also focused on starting negotiations with Iran, although it is spoken from a position of power. Furthermore, Adam Boehler, Trump’s representative for Israeli hostage affairs, met with the Hamas leadership in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and evaluated the meeting as constructive, while in response to Tel Aviv’s criticism, he described Hamas members as good people.

Of course, it was recently claimed that he was removed from his position. Now, in order to prevent Trump and Iran from entering the negotiating line and for the US to avoid direct talks with Hamas, the Israeli side has wanted to make the situation critical so that the atmosphere for consultations remains unfavorable. Furthermore, by intensifying the attacks, Netanyahu wants to force Hamas to accept conditions that the group has so far refused to accept.

Second: In the meantime, Trump also has specific goals that he is seeking to achieve: forcing Iran to negotiate. Trump has repeatedly emphasized establishing peace; but from the position of exercising power, using the tools of sanctions and military threats. The deadly airstrikes by the US military on Yemeni Houthi positions and the hints and insinuations of Trump and his entourage towards Iran are also intended to force Tehran to agree to negotiations, and that is, negotiations whose terms and conditions are determined by the American side.

Trump’s green light to resume the Gaza war could also be in this direction, because if the ceasefire goes ahead as included in the agreement, the American and Israeli sides believe that Iran and the so-called “axis of resistance” will declare themselves victorious, and in that case Tehran will either refuse to negotiate or will try to enter the arena from a strong position.

Third: It is true that Trump signed the plan to resume the war, but he will not support the continuation of the war and its spread, for three reasons:

1- it would contradict the slogans that Trump has constantly chanted to end wars. More importantly, since he values ​​the principle of “cost-benefit” so much, his support for a long and consequential war would harm the achievement of the larger goals he has in mind.

Therefore, it supports what Netanyahu wants to a certain extent, which is natural; but it seems unlikely that the previous US administration would want to continuously pump advanced weapons and military equipment into Israel for more than a year.

2- Second, Trump’s support for a long war that results in the deaths of Palestinian civilians could undermine the prospects for expanding the Abraham Accords, an agreement that Trump holds in high regard and cites as the most important achievement of her first administration.

Arab governments also have a sense of dignity and prestige and will not join this treaty for free, especially Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Trump does not want the scope of this treaty to remain narrow.

3- If Trump agrees to support a large-scale and high-consequence war in Gaza, America will be stuck in the Middle East, which will sideline the rest of the White House’s priorities: Ending the war in Ukraine, a trade war with China, Canada, Europe, etc. When the US is once again involved in the Gaza conflict, Russia will become bolder and, instead of giving in to Trump’s demand to sign a ceasefire agreement, will insist on continuing the war to occupy more territory in Ukraine. The trade war with China and Europe also requires that Trump be comfortable with the Middle East.

4- Netanyahu’s cabinet is grappling with numerous internal problems. For example, Internal Security Minister Ben-Governor resigned and left the government in response to accepting the first phase of the ceasefire. Smotrich, another Netanyahu ally, has also warned that he will resign in response to accepting the second phase, which would lead to the collapse of the cabinet.

Apart from that, the risk of launching a comprehensive investigation to clarify the dimensions of the October 7 attack is also prominent, which is possible in the absence of war conditions. In recent days, a serious disagreement between Netanyahu and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has flared up, leading to the latter’s dismissal. This dismissal is said to be related to the risk of leaking documents that could jeopardize Netanyahu’s political life.

Now, the simple and inexpensive way to keep the government going and quell internal disputes is to resume the war with Hamas, so that the opposing and supporting view of the external enemy is fixed. In the meantime, the protests of the families of the hostages and the opposition forces are important as a deterrent; but not to the extent of the internal conflict in the cabinet, the disclosure of documents and the preparation of the investigation file into the October 7 attack, which could put an end to the life of the Netanyahu government.

Middle East

US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt

Published

on

The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.

The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.

Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.

A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.

Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.

A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”

This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.

An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”

The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.

The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.

The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.

A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.

In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”

The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.

The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.

Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.

Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.

In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.

Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.

This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.

Continue Reading

Middle East

Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks

Published

on

Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.

This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.

United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.

Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.

Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.

Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.

“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.

Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.

The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.

Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.

Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.

Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.

Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.

The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.

Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”

Continue Reading

Middle East

Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials

Published

on

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.

Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.

The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”

Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.

Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.

Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”

Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.

According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:

“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey