Europe
German industry stockpiles critical minerals before EU-China talks
German companies are seeking to stockpile critical raw materials against the possibility that trade talks between the EU and China next month will end without agreement.
EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will travel to Beijing on 8-9 October to seek a breakthrough in negotiations aimed at reducing the EU’s record trade deficit with China.
Šefčovič warned that Brussels would restrict access for Chinese goods if no agreement is reached.
The risk that Beijing could retaliate by introducing new export restrictions on rare earth elements and other critical raw materials has unsettled the business community.
According to an announcement from Washington, China agreed on Wednesday to extend the suspension of a series of additional rare earth export controls for a further two months, carrying it into January.
“We are essentially trying to project power we do not possess. When doing business with certain partners, you have to assess your own position realistically,” said Matthias Rüth, chief executive of Frankfurt-based trading house Tradium, who has worked with rare earths and other technology metals for more than 25 years.
A German industry official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said companies were “very worried” and warned that manufacturing could grind to a halt:
“Companies are panicking right now and stockpiling. Some started quite early and now have several months of supplies in their inventories. But for the majority, that is not the case.”
Another industry official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, concurred with those remarks, adding: “Tightening export controls would hit the sector hard. The situation is extremely tense.”
Export controls imposed by China in April last year on seven rare earth elements triggered acute shortages, forcing carmakers in Europe to halt several production lines while factories across other sectors lowered capacity utilization rates.
Beijing announced a further expansion of its controls on rare earth elements last October.
Those measures included restrictions on additional elements and on the technology used in their processing.
The measures were suspended for one year as part of a trade truce agreed with Washington.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday, ahead of summit talks between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, that the moratorium had been extended to 10 January.
The EU is seeking to narrow a daily trade deficit of 1 billion euros with Asia’s largest economy, but to achieve that it must persuade Beijing either to import more EU goods or to curb its own exports.
In theory, this would be welcome news for Germany, the bloc’s manufacturing powerhouse, which competes with China across the automotive, machinery, and chemicals sectors.
Companies across Germany’s industrial heartlands continue to announce plant closures, citing both international competition and elevated energy costs.
Yet executives emphasize that their businesses remain inextricably tied to Chinese supply chains, including for the rare earth elements used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, data centres, and weapons systems.
Around 60% of rare earth mining and 90% of refining operations take place in China.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency, Europe and the US are the regions most exposed to Chinese export restrictions, facing potential direct losses exceeding 1.5 trillion dollars if Beijing’s rare earth export controls are fully enforced.
Bloomberg reported that Chinese exports of rare earth magnets to the US fell by roughly 20% in August compared with the previous month.
Siobhan McGarry, the European Commission’s spokesperson for industrial policy, argued that the EU has reduced its vulnerability to supply disruptions since last year’s rare earths crisis:
“If something happens tomorrow; such as export restrictions; we now have much greater awareness of where our alternative sources of supply lie. We have considerably more partnerships with other countries that require the same materials. That does not mean an export restriction would have no impact, but I believe we are now far better prepared.”
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new initiative to procure and stockpile critical minerals during her annual State of the EU address last week.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was in Strasbourg for the event, said his resource-rich country aimed to cooperate on critical minerals while deepening its alliance with the EU.
Despite strains with traditional allies, the US is also pursuing cooperation. In February, the Trump administration proposed a trilateral partnership among the US, the EU, and Japan under an international trade platform to break China’s dominance over key raw materials. Washington is preparing a draft text that it plans to submit to partners in the coming months.
Brussels has set 2030 targets to extract 10% of the EU’s annual consumption of strategic raw materials within its own territory and to process 40% domestically.
It has also designated 60 strategic projects, enabling them to secure faster permitting and financing.
Signs of progress have begun to emerge. Last year, a facility owned by chemicals group Solvay started producing neodymium and praseodymium, which are used in permanent magnets.
It is scheduled to begin separating dysprosium and terbium later this autumn.
Performance Materials, an Estonian company, began shipments of permanent magnets this month.
In Germany, an industry initiative led by carmaker BMW aims to establish a critical minerals trading hub to pool demand and execute joint purchases, hoping thereby to gain greater market leverage.
The Commission is also working on new rules to encourage, or even mandate, that industry diversify material sourcing beyond China, and to create a market for European critical mineral production. Šefčovič plans to present the proposal in early December.
Despite the tense environment, German policymakers are urging Europe to remain calm.
Tobias Winkler, a Bavarian lawmaker from the CSU, the sister party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, who focuses on the geopolitics of critical raw materials, said:
“It is important to negotiate professionally as equal partners and to place the available instruments on the table. China is also unlikely to have an interest in a trade conflict, especially if it places additional burdens on its already struggling domestic economy.”
Winkler observed that meaningfully reducing Europe’s dependencies would take years, adding: “Until then, we will need other measures to preserve market stability and ensure security of supply.”
Europe
Most EU citizens reject fast-track Ukraine accession, poll finds
An opinion survey conducted across the European Union has revealed that 53% of bloc citizens oppose admitting Ukraine to the EU through an accelerated process in the coming years.
According to the study carried out by the Bertelsmann Foundation, 47% of EU residents support the idea of fast-track membership.
The most pronounced opposition to rapid accession was recorded in Romania at 60%, followed by Germany at 59%, and France and Poland at 57% each.
The lowest resistance to Ukraine’s accelerated membership was found in Sweden at 31%. This figure stood at 37% in Spain and Portugal, and remained at 43% in the Netherlands.
Domestic support for the process remains exceptionally high; 83% of the public in Ukraine want to join the bloc as soon as possible.
Europeans differ over defence contributions and strategic benefits
The survey also examined perceptions regarding the defence of the continent. Some 58% of Ukrainians believe that their “resistance against Russia’s military campaign protects the entire continent and the EU as a whole.”
In contrast, 29% of bloc citizens share the view that the EU and its member states contribute more to defending the union than Ukraine does.
While 23% of participants view the efforts of both sides as equal, the share of those who consider Ukraine to be the bloc’s “primary protector” remains at 16%.
The study also indicates that low expectations concerning the tangible benefits Ukraine would provide to the bloc contribute to the limited support for its membership.
Only 14% of surveyed Europeans believe that this accession will make the EU stronger and more influential on a global scale. Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents who anticipate that Ukraine’s entry will increase the bloc’s resilience was measured at 11%.
Timetable debate persists in the negotiation process
Ukraine applied for membership immediately after Russia’s military intervention and gained candidate status in 2022.
The accession process encompasses a 33-chapter reform package organised under six clusters, which aims to guarantee democratic and economic standards.
Formal accession talks began in June 2024. The negotiation process, which had long been blocked by Hungary, made progress after Peter Magyar took office as the country’s prime minister.
Magyar also succeeded in having the term “accelerated accession” for Ukraine removed from EU texts.
Magyar argued that a contrary approach would send the wrong message to Western Balkan nations, such as Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, which have worked towards membership for years.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for the membership process to be completed by 2027, stating that this would provide a fundamental security guarantee for both Ukraine and Europe.
On the other hand, circles within the bloc that oppose rushing the process insist on the complete fulfilment of all conditions, including anti-corruption measures.
Meanwhile, the EU Ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, points to 2030 as a likely accession date.
For membership to take place following the completion of negotiations, all 27 EU member states must grant unanimous approval.
So far, only the first of the six chapter clusters, covering fundamental values and principles such as the rule of law, human rights, and the judiciary, has been opened for Ukraine.
Europe
NATO unveils 32-nation defence strategy to counter adversaries
NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Alexus Grynkewich has unveiled a new defence strategy aimed at rendering any attack against an alliance member entirely futile.
Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, Grynkewich said the concept, titled the “Theory of War”, is designed to prevent hostile elements from infiltrating NATO territory and waging conflict there.
Arguing that they aim to reassure the one billion people living within the alliance’s borders, Grynkewich maintained that they also wish to send a message to adversaries such as Russia that NATO is prepared for a potential invasion.
“If we are attacked, we are ready to fight even tonight,” Grynkewich said.
Three-stage defence plan enters into force
Approved by all 32 alliance members, the plan combines land forces and conventional weapons systems with advanced technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles, counter-drone systems, and artificial intelligence.
Lessons drawn from ground and air combat in Ukraine, as well as current conflicts in the Middle East, play a decisive role in shaping the strategy.
According to Grynkewich, the new defence doctrine rests on three fundamental phases that form the core of NATO’s approach:
The first pillar of the plan, the “block” phase, focuses on preventing hostile forces from seizing allied territory.
In this context, NATO ground components will engage directly with attacking units, restrict their manoeuvrability, and neutralise forces attempting to breach alliance borders.
Should the assault continue, the second phase (“blunt”) will come into play, deploying autonomous systems requiring minimal human intervention alongside advanced sensor networks to slow the momentum of the attack and wear down advancing forces.
These systems will detect threats in real time, combining capabilities across different operational domains to halt the adversary’s advance.
The final stage, the “break” phase, will target not the attacking units directly, but the operational warfighting system that sustains them.
Command centres, supply chains, and logistics routes will be struck using long-range precision strike systems and sensor networks, eliminating the adversary’s ability to sustain military operations.
“Enemy commanders will not be able to direct their troops, their supply lines will be severed, and their logistics vehicles will be destroyed,” Grynkewich said.
Strategy aims to defend borders rather than gain territory
Noting that NATO has no intention of acquiring territory and that the strategy is entirely defence-oriented, Grynkewich said, “We have no plan, intention, or ambition beyond protecting our citizens and our territory.”
Stating that he considers the likelihood of a direct attack on alliance territory to be low, the commander nevertheless stated that they would respond without hesitation to any attempt targeting allies.
Addressing questions regarding US commitment to the alliance, Grynkewich recalled that Washington reaffirmed its adherence to Article 5 at the NATO summit in July.
Article 5, which forms the cornerstone of NATO’s collective defence principle, stipulates that an armed attack against one ally is considered an attack against all members.
Europe
Germany detains two Turkish suspects over Polish Starlink arson
Polish authorities have announced that German police detained two Turkish citizens suspected of setting fire to a Starlink station near Warsaw last month.
Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland’s minister coordinating the special services, told a news conference in Warsaw on Monday that Poland has requested the suspects’ extradition and has “no doubt” that Russian secret services were behind the arson attack.
“It should also be noted that Russian intelligence agencies are increasingly turning to people linked to the criminal underworld,” Siemoniak said at the press conference.
In a post on X, Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the incident as another “act of hybrid warfare” and said those responsible for the sabotage would be brought to justice in Poland.
Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski said the two Turkish citizens would be charged in Poland with carrying out an act of sabotage on the orders of a foreign intelligence agency.
Power supply equipment at a Starlink ground station serving Eastern Europe, including Poland and Ukraine, caught fire on the night of 23 September.
The incident did not cause a major disruption to internet service. The blaze, however, completely destroyed the station’s electrical system and backup generator.
Poland, a key transit route for Western aid to Ukraine, has faced a series of suspicious incidents recently.
Numerous cyberattacks have targeted public utilities, including water and energy infrastructure as well as hospitals.
In addition, damage to a railway line between Warsaw and the Ukrainian border was attributed by officials to Russian sabotage.
In late July, a Russian missile also landed in Poland.
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