On 22 August, the four-day national convention of the US Democratic Party concluded in Chicago, and current Vice President Kamala Harris was officially nominated as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate for the next election. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was the vice-presidential candidate. Many former presidents and prominent Democratic officials attended the convention and endorsed Harris. The Chicago convention demonstrated that the Democratic Party, under Harris’ leadership, has begun the battle to defend the White House and is determined to defeat her Republican rivals, former President Trump and his running mate, Vance, on 8 November.
Harris had been selected as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in early August by online voting by 4,500 party delegates. The Chicago convention was therefore not only an endorsement convention, but also a motivational and swearing-in ceremony aimed at supporting the new ‘Harris-Walz’ combination and influencing the Democratic Party and centrist voters. This convention also marks the beginning of the ‘post-Biden era’ or ‘Harris era’ campaign.
As the campaign progressed and the performance of incumbent President Biden declined, Harris was unexpectedly forced to take over. This situation is seen as both unexpected and expected. When the Democratic Party presented the ‘Biden-Harris’ combination four years ago, it was thought that this situation was designed and anticipated to lead to a change in leadership in the future. The choice of Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidate brings innovation to the American people. If Harris, who is 22 years younger than Biden and Trump, can defend the White House, she will be the first female president and the first South Asian president in US history.
The Democratic Party is determined to protect its position in the White House. First, big names like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer urged Biden to withdraw from the race. Then former presidents Clinton and Obama threw their support behind Harris. Even Biden, who had no chance of re-election, put aside his personal frustrations and worries and enthusiastically endorsed the 59-year-old Harris. These factors and the Chicago convention showed that the Democratic Party was united in spirit and influencing public opinion.
Given the American appetite for change, Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s takeover show that the mood of the electorate has shifted in a positive direction for the Democratic Party. Harris raised more than $200 million in small donations in July, more than four times the amount raised by Trump. As of 19 August, national polls on the 538 website showed Harris with 46.6% support to Trump’s 43.8%, with a clear lead in some key states. Moreover, in terms of attracting new voters, Harris’ influence is greater than Trump’s.
On the other hand, public opinion has become more negative towards Trump, suggesting that the events following Trump’s selection of Vance as his running mate and the attacks on him have made a big difference. Despite the ‘Trumpisation’ of the Republican Party, Trump is alone and the Republican Party is struggling on its own due to a lack of key figures and a lack of support from influential former leaders.
Analysts cite three main reasons for the change in the electoral mood following the Democratic Party’s leadership transition: First, Trump targeted Biden, who is only three years older than him and in poor health. The Democratic Party’s presentation of Harris, an energetic candidate, gave the impression that Trump was old and tired. Second, there are suspicions that Trump suffered from post-traumatic symptoms and confusion after the attack, and that his mental state deteriorated. Third, Vance’s appearance, inexperience and extreme rhetoric caused his support to drop by 6% in two weeks, negatively impacting Trump and leading to calls for a ‘temporary change’ within the Republican Party.
The US elections saw a rare ‘July surprise’ followed by an ‘August surge’. It is difficult for the public to predict how the two-month election process will unfold. Given the ‘October surprise’ expected in October, Harris’ replacement of Biden and the innovations she brings will determine whether she will be the new owner of the White House.
Harris is not a new face, but the public may not know enough about this new leader of the Democratic Party. For the past four years, Harris has been a low-profile vice president in charge of security issues. Her role in decision-making, media visibility and presence are not as prominent as those of previous vice presidents. Harris’s advantages are that she is young, intelligent and represents women and minority groups.
Four years ago, on 15 August, in my article analysing whether the ‘Biden-Harris’ combination could win the White House, I stated that the advantages of this two-person team could enable them to hold the White House in the long term, and that Harris’s supportive role for Biden could one day make her a presidential candidate. Today, that prediction has come true, and Harris has replaced Biden at a critical moment, becoming the head of the Democratic Party and capturing a positive campaign mood. However, the Republican Party and Trump still believe they have a significant chance and are trying to come back strong. At events in battleground states in recent days, Trump has made speeches on issues that the Republican Party sees as favourable, discussing the economy, crime and security. Trump has changed his slogan from ‘Make America Greater’ to ‘Make America Safer’.
In addition, Trump’s popularity within the party remains high. His supporters believe that Harris and the Democratic Party are enjoying the euphoria of the change of candidate, but that voters may develop a negative attitude towards Harris as they better understand her past words and positions. Although some polls show Harris outperforming Biden in key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, most polls show the race for the White House is still too close to call. The Harris team admits that ‘the polls are not as favourable as the open data shows’.
Harris or Trump? The Democratic Party or the Republican Party? The results will be known in 80 days.
*Prof. Ma, Dean of the Institute of Studies for the Mediterranean Rim (ISMR ), Zhejiang International Studies University (Hangzhou). He knows the world affairs well, especially the Islamic and Middle East politics. He has worked for many years as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine and Iraq.
