How will Brazil’s presidential runoff work?

The second round will determine which candidate secures a majority of the valid votes.

By Micaela Ovelar, São Paulo

Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a runoff between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party (PT). With all voting machines counted, Bolsonaro finished the October 4 first round with 47.03% of valid votes, ahead of Lula’s 45.16%. Neither secured the majority required for an outright victory, sending the two candidates to a second round on October 25.

Bolsonaro received 56,104,503 votes, while Lula obtained 53,879,538—a difference of 2,224,965 votes, or approximately 1.87 percentage points. Bolsonaro therefore enters the runoff as the first-round leader.

The election also settled legislative contests and most gubernatorial races. In São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral state, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) secured reelection in the first round. Nationwide, 20 gubernatorial contests were decided without a runoff.

The presidential count

The two leading candidates together accounted for 92.19% of valid presidential votes. The remaining candidates shared 7.81%

Source: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (SEC).

Augusto Cury, of Avante, placed third with approximately 2.89% of valid votes (3,448,569), followed by Renan Santos, of Missão, with 2.24% (2,675,887), and Ronaldo Caiado, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), with 2.18% (2,605,148). Romeu Zema, of Novo, received 0.27% (326,488). None advanced to the runoff.

Cury and Santos subsequently said they would not endorse either finalist. Their announcements do not determine how their supporters will vote on October 25: ballots cast for eliminated candidates cannot be automatically assigned to Bolsonaro or Lula.

The completed count also differed from the final polls, which had placed Lula ahead with 45%, against Bolsonaro’s 42%. The election result instead gave Bolsonaro a narrow lead.

The territorial distribution showed Lula ahead in the Northeast, while Bolsonaro prevailed in the three southern states: Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. Across the country, Bolsonaro led in 14 states and the Federal District, while Lula finished ahead in 12 states. These results contribute to a single nationwide presidential count rather than awarding separate electoral mandates for individual state victories.

How the election works

Brazil elects its president and vice president on a joint ticket through a two-round system. A ticket wins in the first round only by obtaining more than half of valid votes. Blank and invalid ballots are excluded from that calculation. If no ticket crosses the threshold, the two highest-placed candidates advance to a runoff.

The October 4 election combined presidential voting with contests for governors, the Chamber of Deputies, the Senate and state or Federal District legislatures. All 513 Chamber seats and 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats were contested. The Senate election renewed two-thirds of the chamber, with voters choosing two different senatorial candidates in each state and the Federal District.

Voting in Brazilian territory ended at 5 p.m., Brasília time, after which electoral authorities published the count. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE in Portuguese) provides results through its official results website and mobile application.

The October 25 runoff will decide the presidency and gubernatorial contests requiring a second round. Legislative elections are determined through the first-round vote and do not proceed to a runoff.

Participation and abstention

Approximately 125.3 million people voted in the presidential election, representing a turnout of 78.92%. Around 33.5 million registered voters did not participate, producing an abstention rate of 21.08%.

The count also recorded approximately 2.3 million blank ballots and 3.67 million invalid ballots. Together, these represented roughly 4.77% of ballots cast, leaving approximately 119.3 million valid presidential votes. Bolsonaro’s 47.03% and Lula’s 45.16% refer to that valid-vote total, not to all ballots cast or the entire registered electorate.

Abstention is distinct from blank or invalid voting. An abstaining voter did not cast a ballot; someone who submitted a blank or invalid ballot participated without recording a valid candidate choice. Neither group should automatically be described as undecided voters.

Those who did not participate on October 4 will have another opportunity to vote in the second round. Of course, the first-round figures do not establish how many will return to the polls or which finalist they will choose.

São Paulo and state results

São Paulo entered the election with approximately 34.1 million registered voters, around 21.5% of Brazil’s electorate. It is the country’s largest electoral state and forms part of the Southeast alongside Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. Its weight in the national electorate makes it particularly important when examining presidential results.

The state’s gubernatorial contest ended in the first round. Tarcísio de Freitas, of Republicanos, won reelection with almost 63% of valid votes (14,491,874), defeating PT candidate Fernando Haddad (8,423,656). This is a gap of approximately 26 percentage points between them.

Across Brazil, 20 gubernatorial races were settled on October 4, the highest first-round total of elections since 1994. That exceeded the 15 contests decided in the first round in 2022 and the previous high of 18 in 2010.

Other first-round winners included Cleitinho Azevedo in Minas Gerais, Sérgio Moro in Paraná and Luciano Zucco in Rio Grande do Sul. PT incumbents Jerônimo Rodrigues, Elmano de Freitas and Rafael Fonteles won reelection in Bahia, Ceará and Piauí, respectively. Six gubernatorial runoffs have been confirmed: Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio Grande do Norte, Tocantins, and the Federal District.

Rio de Janeiro Case

In Rio de Janeiro, Douglas Ruas had 49.27% and Eduardo Paes 42.76%. Anthony Garotinho’s withdrawal of an appeal concerning his rejected candidacy could change which votes enter the calculation, potentially lifting Ruas above the first-round threshold. Rio de Janeiro remains an unresolved case because a pending electoral decision could affect the total number of valid votes. Formal action by electoral authorities was still required, so the contest could not yet be presented as a settled first-round victory. However, the electoral justice system is highly likely to announce a first-round victory for Douglas Ruas, who is also a candidate from Bolsonaro’s political party, the PL.

Brazilian voters abroad

Brazilians registered abroad participated in the presidential contest, with approximately 341,800 casting ballots in 186 cities, according to TSE data. Around 916,500 voters were eligible to vote overseas. Unlike the nationwide result, the overseas count placed Lula ahead. He received 157,387 votes, or 47.57% of valid ballots cast abroad, against approximately 143,900 votes, or 43.49%, for Bolsonaro. Lula led in 64 countries and Bolsonaro in 37.

The distribution varied sharply by country. Bolsonaro obtained 61.10% in the United States and 71.76% in Japan. Lula led in Portugal with 52.45%, Argentina with 64.44%, Canada with 57.75% and Germany with 71.93%. Overseas ballots form part of the national presidential total rather than a separate electoral contest.

Brazil now heads to the October 25 runoff with Bolsonaro ahead in the first-round count, but the presidency is still undecided. The second round will determine which ticket secures a majority of valid votes.