Asia
India considers US tariffs in exchange for trade deal
Ongoing bilateral trade discussions between India and the US have become crucial for the South Asian nation, especially after being penalized with a reciprocal tariff of 26%.
Economists suggest that while India has managed to avoid the excessive rates applied to regional competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh, the tariffs make a bilateral agreement essential for New Delhi, which is trying to mitigate the impact on approximately $80 billion worth of exports to the US.
With India’s gross domestic product growth expected to slow to 6.5% in the fiscal year ending March 2025, down from 8.2% in the previous fiscal year, the current tariff levels could inflict a further blow of 70 to 90 basis points, potentially resulting in an export revenue loss of around $30 billion.
“This is a very significant impact, and it’s not a pleasant one at all,” Dhiraj Nim, an India economist at ANZ bank, told Nikkei Asia.
India’s exports in sectors such as electronics, jewelry, and automobiles are among the most affected by the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. For now, the Trump administration has exempted pharmaceutical exports from tariffs.
S C Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, stated to local media on Thursday that the relatively lower tariffs imposed on India’s exports could provide an advantage against Asian competitors like China and Vietnam, which have been hit harder.
With this glimmer of hope, Indian stock indices seemed to weather the tariff news better than their Asian counterparts, with the benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex indices down by approximately 0.2% and 0.27%, respectively, by midday. The Indian rupee weakened to 85.78 against the dollar at the open but recovered to 85.64 by midday.
The Nifty Pharma index outperformed the broader market, rising over 2% by midday.
Economists suggest that the relatively milder tariffs announced against other major economies, coupled with hopes for a bilateral agreement, have supported sentiment in Indian markets.
“The [muted fall] suggests that the markets think that this 26% is unsustainable and this is somewhat of a ceiling tariff rate, and negotiations will bring it down,” Nim added.
A team of US officials visited India last week as part of trade talks aimed at increasing trade between the two countries to $500 billion by 2030. The Indian government stated on Thursday that discussions are ongoing “for an early conclusion of a mutually beneficial, multi-sectoral Bilateral Trade Agreement.”
Unlike China, Canada, and the European Union, India has adopted a more conciliatory stance in response to Trump’s warnings about Washington’s trade deficit (which stands at $45 billion in India’s case), and earlier this year, it reduced tariffs on large motorcycles, luxury cars, and bourbon to appease the US.
According to Bloomberg last week, India is now considering reducing tariffs on agricultural products such as pulses and soybeans, as well as on electric vehicle imports, according to Reuters, which is a major sticking point for Trump ally and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose electric vehicle manufacturer has yet to establish a presence in the world’s third-largest automobile market.
In a fact sheet accompanying the tariff announcements, the Trump administration targeted India’s “uniquely burdensome and/or duplicative testing and certification requirements,” stating that removing these barriers would increase US exports by at least $5.3 billion per year.
Sujan Hajra, chief economist at brokerage firm Anand Rathi, wrote in a note: “India’s merchandise trade surplus with the US is far lower than that of China ($320 billion), Mexico ($180 billion), Vietnam ($120 billion), or Germany and Ireland (each at $90 billion). This strengthens India’s position in negotiating a tariff reduction.”
However, economists caution that even with a bilateral trade agreement, India will not be immune to the impact of a potential global trade war that Trump’s “tariff man” declaration threatens to unleash.
“Slowing US growth and weaker global trade momentum will weigh on external demand [for India],” Morgan Stanley Research stated in a note.
“More importantly, we expect this impact to be more visible through the indirect channel of weaker corporate confidence, which will further delay the investment spending cycle [for the country],” it added.
According to economists, this situation may lead to further policy support in India. Morgan Stanley economists suggest that the Reserve Bank of India may shift its stance from neutral to accommodative at its next monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, while Nim from ANZ said that the possibility of a 50-basis-point cut in the benchmark policy rate has “risen significantly.”
Asia
China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks
Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.
According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.
China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”
“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.
“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.
Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”
The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.
Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.
Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”
The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.
That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.
Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.
The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.
Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.
“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.
In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.
“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.
“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”
Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.
“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.
Asia
SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company
As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.
SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.
The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.
SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.
The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.
According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.
Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.
The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.
Asia
China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.
The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.
Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.
The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.
Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.
Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.
Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.
The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.
Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.
Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.
The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.
Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.
The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.
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