India plans to increase water drawing from Indus river

India plans to significantly increase the amount of water it draws from a major river that feeds farmland in Pakistan’s lower basin. This move, according to four people familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters, is part of retaliatory measures holding Islamabad responsible for a deadly attack on tourists in April. The Indus Treaty has still not come into effect.

Delhi suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates the use of the Indus river system, after an incident in India’s Kashmir region where 26 civilians were killed, an event India described as a terrorist act. Pakistan denied involvement, but although the two nuclear-armed neighbors signed a ceasefire agreement last week after the most severe clashes in decades, the treaty has not re-entered force.

Following the April 22 attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi instructed officials to speed up the planning and execution of projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, which are three water sources within the Indus river system allocated for Pakistan’s use.

Two people said one of the significant plans being discussed is to double the length of the Ranbir canal on the Chenab river, which extends from India to Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, Punjab. The canal was built in the 19th century, long before the treaty was signed.

India is permitted to draw a limited amount of water from the Chenab river for irrigation purposes, but the expanded canal, which experts say could take years to build, would increase India’s water drawing capacity from approximately 40 cubic meters per second currently to 150 cubic meters per second.

Details of the Indian government’s discussions regarding the expansion of Ranbir had not been previously reported. The discussions began last month and are continuing after the ceasefire, said one of the individuals.

The ministries of water and external affairs, as well as Modi’s office, did not respond to Reuters’ questions. NHPC, India’s state-owned hydroelectric company which carries out many projects in the Indus system, also did not respond to an email requesting comment.

In a fiery speech this week, Modi said, without referring to the treaty, “Water and blood cannot flow together.” Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters on Tuesday that India would “suspend the treaty until Pakistan credibly and irreversibly denies its support for cross-border terrorism.”

Pakistan’s ministries of water and foreign affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told lawmakers this week that the government had written a letter to India stating that the suspension of the treaty was illegal and that Islamabad considered the treaty to be in force.

Islamabad had announced after India suspended the treaty in April that it would consider “attempts to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” as “an act of war.”

Approximately 80% of Pakistan, including nearly all hydroelectric projects serving its 250 million population, is dependent on the Indus river system.

David Michel, a water security expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that Delhi’s efforts to build dams, canals, or other infrastructure facilities that would block or divert significant amounts of water flow from the Indus river system to India would “take years to materialize.”

However, Pakistan experienced a preview of the pressure it could face from India: After India began maintenance work on some Indus projects, water levels at a key intake point in Pakistan briefly dropped by up to 90% in early May.

The Indus system originates near Lake Mansarovar in Tibet, flows through some of the world’s most geopolitically tense regions, passes through northern India and eastern and southeastern Pakistan, and empties into the Arabian Sea.

The treaty is considered one of the world’s most successful water-sharing agreements, having survived several major wars and long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan.

Islamabad had previously opposed several Indian projects in the Indus system, while Delhi had stated after the Kashmir attack that it had been trying to renegotiate the treaty since 2023 to take into account population growth and the increasing need for clean hydro energy.

The treaty largely limits India to building low-impact hydroelectric projects on the three rivers allocated primarily to Pakistan. Delhi is free to use the waters of the other three rivers, which are tributaries of the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers, as it wishes.

According to two government documents seen by Reuters and interviews with five people familiar with the matter, in addition to the plans to expand the Ranbir canal, India is also considering projects that would reduce the amount of water flowing from the rivers allocated to Pakistan to that country.

An undated note prepared by a state company for officials evaluating irrigation plans stated that water from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers could be “distributed” to rivers in three northern Indian states.

One of the individuals, who said that this document, details of which had not been previously made public, was prepared for discussions with energy ministry officials after the April 22 attack, also stated that Delhi had prepared a list of hydroelectric projects in its Jammu and Kashmir region aiming to increase the current capacity of 3,360 MW to 12,000 MW.

Delhi also prepared a list of hydroelectric projects in the Jammu and Kashmir region. These projects aim to increase the current capacity of 3,360 MW to 12,000 MW.

The list prepared by the Ministry of Power and seen by Reuters was undated. A person familiar with the document said the list was prepared before the Kashmir incident but was actively being discussed by government officials.

According to two people close to the matter, the planned projects include dams, which would be a first for India in the Indus river system, capable of storing large amounts of water.

According to the Ministry of Power document, India has identified at least five potential storage projects, four of which are located on tributaries of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers.

Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters on Monday, “Water should not be used as a weapon. We do not want to consider any scenario that does not take into account the re-entry into force of this agreement.”