The Islamic Republic of Iran finally relented and fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. This operation was unexpected after the operation called “Wada Sadiq”, because many analysts believed that Tehran would not accept the risk of a direct attack on Israel for the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah. But that analysis went wrong.
Also, Tehran reacted quickly, perhaps with the aim of preventing a possible frontal attack by Israel. This operation is considered heavier than the April attack.
Although the number of missiles fired was small, because all the missiles were ballistic, they raised a lot of noises. All eyes are now on Israel’s possible response. The answer that is not far away is to widen the war between the two sides.
Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, said that three important bases of the country (Israel) were targeted in Tuesday’s missile attacks on Israel under the name of “Sadiq Promise 2.”
The attacks targeted Mossad, Navatim and Hatserin bases, according to Fars News Agency.
“The three main military air bases of the Zionist regime [Israel], Mossad as the center of terror, Navatim Air Base as an F-35 air base and Hatzrin Air Base as a base used to assassinate Nasrallah were targeted by the IRGC’s missile attack,” the agency quoted Bagheri as saying.
According to him, despite Israel’s “repeated crimes,” Iranian forces have only targeted military bases in accordance with international standards. There is no information yet on the possible casualties and damages caused by the attacks.
Is there going to be a massive war; the answer is no for three reasons.
First – The Iranian attack was apparently focused on military targets. No civilian casualties have been reported yet. There is no information about the casualties of the soldiers. Military sites may have been damaged, but the extent of the damage is not yet known. Tehran has also been very careful in determining targets so as not to cause heavy losses to civilians and property, because in that case, the risk of a large-scale war could be increased.
Therefore, it can be said that the safety of civilians and civilian places will save Tel Aviv from a large-scale retaliatory attack that will lead to a large-scale war.
Second – There is serious ambiguity in the position of the United States. Although this country is determined and committed to supporting Israel, it does not give Israel the opportunity to start a massive war in the current situation. The reason is obvious, the US’s heated electoral climate. A full-scale war in the Middle East could be dangerous for current rulers, especially if an oil-rich country closes its oil pipeline.
Republican candidate Donald Trump, without condemning the attack on Iran, called Biden and Harris warmongers. In such a situation that the Biden government bears the costs of the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, does not want to bear the heavy costs of the war with Iran, so it is trying to make the possible response of Israel to be only an exchange of fire, not an immense war.
The most important thing is that, this time, Washington’s language is not too harsh towards Iran, it emphasized its support for Israel, rather than condemning Tehran.
America’s contribution in the field of missile defense was also not serious against the past. It raised questions about what caused many missiles to reach the target. Britain and France also did not participate in the destruction of the missiles. Jordan remained the same. Moreover, these countries had cooperated in the past to reduce the effectiveness of the “Wada Sadiq” operation. The non-participation of Jordan, France and the UK seems meaningful. It seems that diplomacy is involved; In other words, Tehran already had the consent of Washington. If so, it will obviously be difficult for Biden to admit. Of course, Iran claimed that it had not given the information to the United States as Tehran did last when it attacked Israel in April.
Third – Iran, without a doubt, does not want to be involved in a war with Israel, it was forced to attack its territory, because after Haniyeh was killed, the 14th government was severely criticized and the conservatives said that the current government is in line with the Democrats and is seeking to weaken the “resistance front” in the Middle East.
It is clear that the reformist government is currently discussing the “triangle management” plan with the US, and its implementation is the most important concern.
Of course, Israel is trying to thwart this plan. So, the success of the above plan warrants not going into war with Israel. When one side backs down, it is clear that the risk of a full-scale war is reduced.
The result of the attack.
1 – For Israel:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in a good position after the assassination of the famous leaders and commanders of Hezbollah and Hamas. Polls also show that if elections are held in Israel, his Likud party will win.
His political opposition groups also supported him. Netanyahu also tried to make gains for himself on the eve of the completion of one year of Hamas attacks, which apparently succeeded.
Now the attack of Iran is a big obstacle in front of him. A large-scale missile attack on Israeli territory by another country, especially on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Gaza war, could be damaging for Netanyahu, especially if he has yet to achieve his stated goals against Hamas.
2 – For Iran:
Iran, which attacked, naturally considers the results of the operation to be positive for itself. An attack on Israel’s territory by a foreign country since (1973) was a “taboo”; But this is the second time that Iran breaks this taboo.
Only in 1991 did Saddam Hussein’s government launch a limited missile attack on Israeli territory, which was not responded to by Tel Aviv.
Now that Iran has normalized attacks on Israeli soil, this can be considered a point of strength for it. That is, of course, if a possible Israeli response does not inflict heavy losses on Tehran.
