Middle East
Iran-Israel conflict escalates: What will happen next?
The Islamic Republic of Iran finally relented and fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. This operation was unexpected after the operation called “Wada Sadiq”, because many analysts believed that Tehran would not accept the risk of a direct attack on Israel for the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah. But that analysis went wrong.
Also, Tehran reacted quickly, perhaps with the aim of preventing a possible frontal attack by Israel. This operation is considered heavier than the April attack.
Although the number of missiles fired was small, because all the missiles were ballistic, they raised a lot of noises. All eyes are now on Israel’s possible response. The answer that is not far away is to widen the war between the two sides.
Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, said that three important bases of the country (Israel) were targeted in Tuesday’s missile attacks on Israel under the name of “Sadiq Promise 2.”
The attacks targeted Mossad, Navatim and Hatserin bases, according to Fars News Agency.
“The three main military air bases of the Zionist regime [Israel], Mossad as the center of terror, Navatim Air Base as an F-35 air base and Hatzrin Air Base as a base used to assassinate Nasrallah were targeted by the IRGC’s missile attack,” the agency quoted Bagheri as saying.
According to him, despite Israel’s “repeated crimes,” Iranian forces have only targeted military bases in accordance with international standards. There is no information yet on the possible casualties and damages caused by the attacks.
Is there going to be a massive war; the answer is no for three reasons.
First – The Iranian attack was apparently focused on military targets. No civilian casualties have been reported yet. There is no information about the casualties of the soldiers. Military sites may have been damaged, but the extent of the damage is not yet known. Tehran has also been very careful in determining targets so as not to cause heavy losses to civilians and property, because in that case, the risk of a large-scale war could be increased.
Therefore, it can be said that the safety of civilians and civilian places will save Tel Aviv from a large-scale retaliatory attack that will lead to a large-scale war.
Second – There is serious ambiguity in the position of the United States. Although this country is determined and committed to supporting Israel, it does not give Israel the opportunity to start a massive war in the current situation. The reason is obvious, the US’s heated electoral climate. A full-scale war in the Middle East could be dangerous for current rulers, especially if an oil-rich country closes its oil pipeline.
Republican candidate Donald Trump, without condemning the attack on Iran, called Biden and Harris warmongers. In such a situation that the Biden government bears the costs of the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, does not want to bear the heavy costs of the war with Iran, so it is trying to make the possible response of Israel to be only an exchange of fire, not an immense war.
The most important thing is that, this time, Washington’s language is not too harsh towards Iran, it emphasized its support for Israel, rather than condemning Tehran.
America’s contribution in the field of missile defense was also not serious against the past. It raised questions about what caused many missiles to reach the target. Britain and France also did not participate in the destruction of the missiles. Jordan remained the same. Moreover, these countries had cooperated in the past to reduce the effectiveness of the “Wada Sadiq” operation. The non-participation of Jordan, France and the UK seems meaningful. It seems that diplomacy is involved; In other words, Tehran already had the consent of Washington. If so, it will obviously be difficult for Biden to admit. Of course, Iran claimed that it had not given the information to the United States as Tehran did last when it attacked Israel in April.
Third – Iran, without a doubt, does not want to be involved in a war with Israel, it was forced to attack its territory, because after Haniyeh was killed, the 14th government was severely criticized and the conservatives said that the current government is in line with the Democrats and is seeking to weaken the “resistance front” in the Middle East.
It is clear that the reformist government is currently discussing the “triangle management” plan with the US, and its implementation is the most important concern.
Of course, Israel is trying to thwart this plan. So, the success of the above plan warrants not going into war with Israel. When one side backs down, it is clear that the risk of a full-scale war is reduced.
The result of the attack.
1 – For Israel:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in a good position after the assassination of the famous leaders and commanders of Hezbollah and Hamas. Polls also show that if elections are held in Israel, his Likud party will win.
His political opposition groups also supported him. Netanyahu also tried to make gains for himself on the eve of the completion of one year of Hamas attacks, which apparently succeeded.
Now the attack of Iran is a big obstacle in front of him. A large-scale missile attack on Israeli territory by another country, especially on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Gaza war, could be damaging for Netanyahu, especially if he has yet to achieve his stated goals against Hamas.
2 – For Iran:
Iran, which attacked, naturally considers the results of the operation to be positive for itself. An attack on Israel’s territory by a foreign country since (1973) was a “taboo”; But this is the second time that Iran breaks this taboo.
Only in 1991 did Saddam Hussein’s government launch a limited missile attack on Israeli territory, which was not responded to by Tel Aviv.
Now that Iran has normalized attacks on Israeli soil, this can be considered a point of strength for it. That is, of course, if a possible Israeli response does not inflict heavy losses on Tehran.
Middle East
Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks
Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.
According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.
The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.
The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.
Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.
They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.
Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”
Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.
After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.
Middle East
Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.
In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.
According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.
Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.
Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.
The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.
The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.
Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.
Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.
Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.
Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.
During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.
The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.
On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.
Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.
Middle East
Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets
BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.
The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.
The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.
Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.
Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.
According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.
The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.
US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.
The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.
However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.
A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”
The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.
The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.
However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.
Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.
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