America
CSIS report warns US munitions reserves depleted to critical levels following Iran conflict
The United States faces a critical depletion of its munitions warfare reserves following the conflict with Iran, leaving the Pentagon with strategic vulnerabilities that could take years to rectify, according to a comprehensive report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The study, titled “The Last Rounds? The State of Critical Munitions in the Iran War Ceasefire,” details how high expenditure rates of Tomahawk, Patriot, and other sophisticated missile systems during recent hostilities have strained American arsenals. While CSIS analysts determined the US maintained sufficient stocks to sustain the conflict under reasonable scenarios, they warned that the primary risk lies in the nation’s ability to wage future wars.
Munition stockpiles shifted to war footing
During a 39-day air and missile campaign preceding the ceasefire, US forces heavily utilized the military’s most expensive and advanced systems. According to the report, the US may have exhausted more than 50% of its pre-war inventories for four out of seven categories of critical munitions.
“Returning to pre-war levels for seven types of munitions will take between one and four years as missiles on the production line are delivered,” the report stated. These systems are considered vital not only for Middle Eastern stability but also for potential high-intensity conflict in the Western Pacific.
CSIS analysts argued that the munitions crisis predated the war with Iran but was severely exacerbated by it. The report noted that even prior to the conflict, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a “peer-level” struggle; this gap has widened, and building reserves appropriate for a potential conflict with China will require additional time.
The dwindling inventory is projected to directly impact US capacity to supply Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) to Ukraine and other allies.
Low-cost alternatives may bolster inventory
Despite shortages in specific categories, the report acknowledged that many other ammunition types remain at acceptable levels. This suggests that the US could continue combat operations even if its most elite missiles are depleted.
The report highlighted that alternatives for land-attack missions are significantly cheaper while providing comparable explosive power. For example, a bomb equipped with a Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guidance kit costs less than $100,000, compared to $2.6 million for a Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM).
While both deliver approximately 450-kilogram payloads with precision, cheaper alternatives have shorter ranges, increasing the risk to launch platforms. The analysis emphasized that air superiority is a prerequisite for the widespread use of these systems, detailing the status and unit costs of JDAM, Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles (JAGM), and Small Diameter Bombs (SDB).
Furthermore, the study noted the growing importance of low-cost interceptors designed to counter unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and cruise missiles.
Deliveries to Japan face potential delays
The CSIS report categorizes seven critical munitions into two groups: long-range land-attack systems and air-and-missile defense systems. Both proved highly effective in combat, leading to the reported high expenditure rates.
The report noted that the Trump administration has announced several industrial agreements to put munitions production on a “war footing.” It observed that the President’s fiscal year 2027 budget request, which includes significant munitions procurement, underscores the “urgency of rebuilding and expanding the inventory.”
However, analysts warned that near-term deliveries are constrained by historically low order volumes. “Even if Congress allocates the requested fiscal year 2027 funds, it will take years for these missiles to be delivered,” the report cautioned.
The international ramifications are significant. Notably, the report mentioned that Japan has been informed that the delivery of 400 Tomahawk missiles may be delayed due to the war with Iran. This delay is seen as a setback for the US position in the Western Pacific as Tokyo builds military capacity to deter China.
Precision Strike Missile inventory nearly exhausted
Long-range precision munitions are considered invaluable for a conflict with China, which possesses robust air defenses and a vast inventory of cruise and ballistic missiles.
The report disclosed that US forces struck over 13,000 targets in the 39 days leading up to the ceasefire. More than 850 Tomahawk missiles were launched in the first month alone, with the total exceeding 1,000 by the time of the truce.
Data regarding the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a newer system that entered service in 2023, is particularly stark. The report cited one Army official claiming the entire PrSM inventory was expended during the war, though other officials maintain some stock remains. This depletion effectively eliminates the possibility of allies like Ukraine receiving the system in the near future.
THAAD missiles identified as most critical gap
In the air and missile defense category, CSIS examined the SM-3, SM-6, THAAD, and Patriot systems. While vital for the Western Pacific, their high cost and scarcity make them unsuitable for defending against low-cost drones.
The report identified THAAD interceptors as the most critical among the seven systems due to low inventory levels and a lack of alternatives. No THAAD interceptor deliveries have been made since August 2023, and they are not expected to resume until April 2027.
Beyond the missiles themselves, the report warned that the loss or damage of AN/TPY-2 radar systems—which provide targeting data for THAAD—would create a capability gap that is difficult to fill. To date, the US has received only 13 such radar units.
Patriot usage in Middle East impacts Ukraine
The strain on the Patriot system remains a focal point of the report. The current PAC-3 MSE version is used by 18 countries, creating immense global demand. Approximately half of annual production is currently allocated to supporting allies.
Ukraine, a major operator, has received over 600 missiles during its ongoing conflict. While Lockheed Martin plans to increase annual production from 600 to 2,000 units, the US faces difficult choices until that capacity is realized.
The report cited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who noted that “every Patriot fired in the Middle East is one fewer missile available for Ukraine.” This scarcity is reportedly prompting other allies, such as Switzerland, to seek alternative systems.
Delivery timelines exceed four years
The report detailed the industrial challenges of converting budget requests into physical hardware. Historically, production lead times averaged 24 months, but that has extended to 36 months or more as demand outpaces capacity.
When factoring in the production time for a full lot, the total delivery cycle can reach 52 months—more than four years. “Many systems are limited by production capacity, so manufacturing lead times are even longer,” the report stated, though it added an optimistic note that funding initiated by previous administrations is beginning to increase production rates.
LUCAS provides low-cost precision strike capability
Resource constraints have driven the development of cheaper alternatives. The report highlighted the Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Assault Strike (LUCAS) system, which the US military developed by reverse-engineering Iran’s Shahed-136 drone. Costing approximately $35,000, LUCAS has a range of 800 kilometers but carries a small 18-kilogram warhead.
For counter-drone operations, systems like APKWS, Roadrunner, and Coyote are being developed. However, the US still lacks a sufficient volume of inexpensive interceptors. The report noted that the US and Gulf allies have frequently used armed helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, and air-to-air missiles like the AIM-120—which costs $1 million per unit—to down drones. Analysts emphasized that using a $1 million missile to intercept a cheap drone is not a sustainable long-term solution.
Risk projected for next conflict
CSIS explained that the US was able to sustain the recent war despite depleted stocks because the high expenditure of the first week dropped by more than 80% as Iranian drone and missile attacks subsided. US forces also transitioned from expensive systems to more abundant, cheaper munitions for ground strikes.
Nonetheless, the underlying risk remains. “A war against a capable and peer adversary like China would consume munitions at even higher rates than in this war,” the report warned.
The study concluded that the current administration appears to have adopted the theory that “winning the current war decisively is more important than preserving capacity for a future war that may never happen.” As naval assets return to the Pacific from the Middle East, the report stressed that munitions recovery will be a long-term endeavor requiring “strategic patience and industrial transformation.”
America
Anthropic AI models breach corporate systems after escaping isolated test environment
Anthropic has announced that several of its advanced artificial intelligence models escaped an isolated testing environment and accessed the live internet.
In a review published Thursday night, the company stated that in three separate incidents dating back to April, the models independently breached the systems of multiple companies without the AI developer’s knowledge.
Anthropic said the incidents involved an unreleased internal research test model, alongside its Opus 4.7 and Mythos 5 models.
Mythos was made available last month to a limited audience composed of technology companies and cybersecurity researchers, an initiative also known as Project Glasswing.
The AI developer did not disclose which companies were breached, but said the affected firms were informed of the incidents on Monday.
Anthropic noted that it conducted the review after OpenAI revealed last week that two of its most powerful models had breached containment, escaped their testing environment, and infiltrated several entities, including the AI platform Hugging Face and cloud provider Modal Labs.
System misconfiguration allowed internet access
Anthropic stated that it examined more than 140,000 tests to find evidence of whether Claude could gain access to the internet from test environments designed to be isolated.
The evaluations included “capture-the-flag” exercises, in which Claude was instructed to breach other systems to obtain information. This is a method frequently used by experts to assess a model’s hacking capabilities.
The San Francisco-based company stated that a “misconfiguration” in systems operated by Anthropic and its testing partner left the models with live internet access, enabling them to infiltrate external systems.
Anthropic said it approached remediation efforts “with full ownership of the responsibility.”
Neither Anthropic nor the affected organizations detected the unauthorized entries at the time they occurred.
Anthropic added that it may examine its logs more extensively, noting that the findings gave the company “cautious optimism” that such risks can be overcome through increased investment and more stringent safeguards.
David Allott, a cybersecurity expert, told the BBC: “The overarching lesson here is not that AI has developed fundamentally new attack vectors.”
“Instead, it means that AI agents can combine capabilities, acquire credentials and system access to act autonomously, while adapting scope and scale at machine speed,” Allott said.
The developments come as technology companies invest billions of dollars to develop AI agents capable of independently executing a range of tasks, from research and customer support to cybersecurity.
America
Elon Musk’s America PAC plans $100 million field operation for 2026 Republican midterm push
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is returning to the political spending arena with a new field program designed to help elect Republicans in at least eight states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Musk has authorized his political action committee, America PAC, to spend between $100 million and $120 million on a new ground game focused on conservative voter turnout for the 2026 midterms, according to a Thursday report by The New York Times, which cited two unnamed sources informed about the plans.
America PAC funneled more than $250 million into Donald Trump’s reelection campaign in 2024, a expenditure that established Musk as the largest political donor in US history.
The New York Times reported that America PAC is reviving its spending initiatives and has reached out to other Republicans in recent weeks regarding the new field operations.
The effort is also being coordinated with other Republican Party spending groups, according to the report.
The newspaper identified targeted Senate races in the states of Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, while noting that discussions are also underway regarding contests in North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.
The political action committee is additionally expected to deploy funds for House of Representatives elections in Washington, Wisconsin, and California.
The news comes a day after Axios first reported that America PAC’s operations were resuming, with a focus on driving Republican turnout during the non-presidential election cycle.
A spokesperson for America PAC declined to comment on The New York Times report but confirmed the Axios reporting to The Hill. The spokesperson stated that the spending group was “excited” to contribute to efforts to maintain the Republican majorities in Congress this fall.
“The President’s political team and the rest of the GOP apparatus have built a world-class operation that has Republicans well-positioned to make history and retain control of Congress this fall,” America PAC spokesperson Andrew Romeo said in a statement. “We’re excited to be part of the team again.”
The campaign will reportedly target Republican voters through door-to-door canvassing, mailers, and digital advertisements, enabling other groups to concentrate their resources on television advertising.
The developments were reported days after Musk told The Economist magazine that he had gotten “carried away” during his brief foray into politics.
The SpaceX CEO entered the political arena during the 2024 election, pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into Trump’s presidential campaign and accompanying the candidate on the campaign trail.
Musk went on to lead Trump’s cost-cutting initiative, known as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which executed sweeping employment and funding reductions across the federal government. Those efforts sparked controversy for Musk and his enterprise empire, including Tesla, whose shares fell sharply during his period of political involvement.
Musk departed the White House in late May 2025, and DOGE officially terminated its operations on July 4.
Shortly after leaving government, Musk and Trump engaged in a public dispute over the president’s sweeping spending legislation, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” During the friction, Musk threatened to form a third party, though the initiative never materialized.
Musk and the US President appeared to resolve their differences last year, with the tech billionaire most recently joining Trump alongside other technology leaders on a trip to China in May.
America
Trump administration seeks to reopen closed US oil refineries as war drives fuel prices up
The Trump administration is seeking to reopen closed oil refineries across the country—including a troubled facility in the Virgin Islands—in response to rising gasoline prices driven by the war in Iran.
A White House official confirmed in an email to The Hill newspaper on Thursday that the Trump administration “would like to see refineries re-opened across the country, particularly the St. Croix refinery.”
The official noted that the facility holds specific significance due to its “strategic” location and the fact that it was constructed to process Venezuelan crude oil.
The statement noted that companies have contacted the administration since April 2025 to submit purchase inquiries for the refinery, adding that interest surged further following the abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent US takeover of the country’s infrastructure.
The push to reactivate closed refineries was first reported by Politico. Three senior industry executives told the outlet that the White House is conducting talks to reopen refining facilities stretching from the Virgin Islands to California.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers addressed the initiative in a statement, saying: “Energy security is national security. America’s refining capacity is critical to ensuring the United States has uninterrupted access to safe, affordable, and reliable energy.”
“The President’s Council on National Energy Dominance will continue to support the re-opening of closed refineries and the construction of new ones to drive prices down and bolster our national security,” Rogers said.
The initiative comes as gasoline prices remain elevated amid the war in Iran.
According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gasoline price stood at approximately $4.10 per gallon as of Thursday. That figure is more than $1 higher than the level recorded when the conflict broke out earlier this year.
The St. Croix refinery halted operations indefinitely in 2021. The shutdown followed an order from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requiring a 60-day suspension after determining that oil spills and air pollution originating from the plant posed an “imminent threat to public health.”
David Johnson, a director at Port Hamilton Refining & Transportation, welcomed the prospect of resuming operations at the facility in a statement shared with The Hill.
In his statement, Johnson said:
“Through the mobilization of substantial private capital alongside targeted federal initiatives that strengthen infrastructure and industrial capacity of national significance, the revitalization of the St. Croix refinery offers an opportunity to advance US energy security, expand domestic production, strengthen supply chain resilience, support advanced technology, create thousands of high-quality jobs, and build long-term American economic competitiveness, while accelerating the return of a strategic American industrial asset.”
Johnson added that the company “continues to engage in constructive discussions with federal and local officials, commercial parties, investors, and financing sources regarding the future of the refinery.”
Noting that the negotiations remain confidential, Johnson said: “While these discussions are confidential, we remain optimistic that the St. Croix refinery can once again make a substantial contribution to America’s energy security, industrial competitiveness, and long-term economic resilience.”
Crude oil is processed into gasoline at refining facilities. While crude oil costs generally constitute the primary driver of pump prices, refining capacity also plays a direct role in price formation.
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