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CSIS report warns US munitions reserves depleted to critical levels following Iran conflict

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The United States faces a critical depletion of its munitions warfare reserves following the conflict with Iran, leaving the Pentagon with strategic vulnerabilities that could take years to rectify, according to a comprehensive report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The study, titled “The Last Rounds? The State of Critical Munitions in the Iran War Ceasefire,” details how high expenditure rates of Tomahawk, Patriot, and other sophisticated missile systems during recent hostilities have strained American arsenals. While CSIS analysts determined the US maintained sufficient stocks to sustain the conflict under reasonable scenarios, they warned that the primary risk lies in the nation’s ability to wage future wars.

Munition stockpiles shifted to war footing

During a 39-day air and missile campaign preceding the ceasefire, US forces heavily utilized the military’s most expensive and advanced systems. According to the report, the US may have exhausted more than 50% of its pre-war inventories for four out of seven categories of critical munitions.

“Returning to pre-war levels for seven types of munitions will take between one and four years as missiles on the production line are delivered,” the report stated. These systems are considered vital not only for Middle Eastern stability but also for potential high-intensity conflict in the Western Pacific.

CSIS analysts argued that the munitions crisis predated the war with Iran but was severely exacerbated by it. The report noted that even prior to the conflict, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a “peer-level” struggle; this gap has widened, and building reserves appropriate for a potential conflict with China will require additional time.

The dwindling inventory is projected to directly impact US capacity to supply Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) to Ukraine and other allies.

Low-cost alternatives may bolster inventory

Despite shortages in specific categories, the report acknowledged that many other ammunition types remain at acceptable levels. This suggests that the US could continue combat operations even if its most elite missiles are depleted.

The report highlighted that alternatives for land-attack missions are significantly cheaper while providing comparable explosive power. For example, a bomb equipped with a Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guidance kit costs less than $100,000, compared to $2.6 million for a Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM).

While both deliver approximately 450-kilogram payloads with precision, cheaper alternatives have shorter ranges, increasing the risk to launch platforms. The analysis emphasized that air superiority is a prerequisite for the widespread use of these systems, detailing the status and unit costs of JDAM, Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles (JAGM), and Small Diameter Bombs (SDB).

Furthermore, the study noted the growing importance of low-cost interceptors designed to counter unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and cruise missiles.

Deliveries to Japan face potential delays

The CSIS report categorizes seven critical munitions into two groups: long-range land-attack systems and air-and-missile defense systems. Both proved highly effective in combat, leading to the reported high expenditure rates.

The report noted that the Trump administration has announced several industrial agreements to put munitions production on a “war footing.” It observed that the President’s fiscal year 2027 budget request, which includes significant munitions procurement, underscores the “urgency of rebuilding and expanding the inventory.”

However, analysts warned that near-term deliveries are constrained by historically low order volumes. “Even if Congress allocates the requested fiscal year 2027 funds, it will take years for these missiles to be delivered,” the report cautioned.

The international ramifications are significant. Notably, the report mentioned that Japan has been informed that the delivery of 400 Tomahawk missiles may be delayed due to the war with Iran. This delay is seen as a setback for the US position in the Western Pacific as Tokyo builds military capacity to deter China.

Precision Strike Missile inventory nearly exhausted

Long-range precision munitions are considered invaluable for a conflict with China, which possesses robust air defenses and a vast inventory of cruise and ballistic missiles.

The report disclosed that US forces struck over 13,000 targets in the 39 days leading up to the ceasefire. More than 850 Tomahawk missiles were launched in the first month alone, with the total exceeding 1,000 by the time of the truce.

Data regarding the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a newer system that entered service in 2023, is particularly stark. The report cited one Army official claiming the entire PrSM inventory was expended during the war, though other officials maintain some stock remains. This depletion effectively eliminates the possibility of allies like Ukraine receiving the system in the near future.

THAAD missiles identified as most critical gap

In the air and missile defense category, CSIS examined the SM-3, SM-6, THAAD, and Patriot systems. While vital for the Western Pacific, their high cost and scarcity make them unsuitable for defending against low-cost drones.

The report identified THAAD interceptors as the most critical among the seven systems due to low inventory levels and a lack of alternatives. No THAAD interceptor deliveries have been made since August 2023, and they are not expected to resume until April 2027.

Beyond the missiles themselves, the report warned that the loss or damage of AN/TPY-2 radar systems—which provide targeting data for THAAD—would create a capability gap that is difficult to fill. To date, the US has received only 13 such radar units.

Patriot usage in Middle East impacts Ukraine

The strain on the Patriot system remains a focal point of the report. The current PAC-3 MSE version is used by 18 countries, creating immense global demand. Approximately half of annual production is currently allocated to supporting allies.

Ukraine, a major operator, has received over 600 missiles during its ongoing conflict. While Lockheed Martin plans to increase annual production from 600 to 2,000 units, the US faces difficult choices until that capacity is realized.

The report cited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who noted that “every Patriot fired in the Middle East is one fewer missile available for Ukraine.” This scarcity is reportedly prompting other allies, such as Switzerland, to seek alternative systems.

Delivery timelines exceed four years

The report detailed the industrial challenges of converting budget requests into physical hardware. Historically, production lead times averaged 24 months, but that has extended to 36 months or more as demand outpaces capacity.

When factoring in the production time for a full lot, the total delivery cycle can reach 52 months—more than four years. “Many systems are limited by production capacity, so manufacturing lead times are even longer,” the report stated, though it added an optimistic note that funding initiated by previous administrations is beginning to increase production rates.

LUCAS provides low-cost precision strike capability

Resource constraints have driven the development of cheaper alternatives. The report highlighted the Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Assault Strike (LUCAS) system, which the US military developed by reverse-engineering Iran’s Shahed-136 drone. Costing approximately $35,000, LUCAS has a range of 800 kilometers but carries a small 18-kilogram warhead.

For counter-drone operations, systems like APKWS, Roadrunner, and Coyote are being developed. However, the US still lacks a sufficient volume of inexpensive interceptors. The report noted that the US and Gulf allies have frequently used armed helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, and air-to-air missiles like the AIM-120—which costs $1 million per unit—to down drones. Analysts emphasized that using a $1 million missile to intercept a cheap drone is not a sustainable long-term solution.

Risk projected for next conflict

CSIS explained that the US was able to sustain the recent war despite depleted stocks because the high expenditure of the first week dropped by more than 80% as Iranian drone and missile attacks subsided. US forces also transitioned from expensive systems to more abundant, cheaper munitions for ground strikes.

Nonetheless, the underlying risk remains. “A war against a capable and peer adversary like China would consume munitions at even higher rates than in this war,” the report warned.

The study concluded that the current administration appears to have adopted the theory that “winning the current war decisively is more important than preserving capacity for a future war that may never happen.” As naval assets return to the Pacific from the Middle East, the report stressed that munitions recovery will be a long-term endeavor requiring “strategic patience and industrial transformation.”

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Trump energy shares rose by up to $4.4m during Iran war, CNBC reports

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10/09/2026

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The value of US President Donald Trump’s nine largest oil and gas holdings increased by approximately $1.5 million to $4.4 million during the first six months of the war with Iran.

According to an analysis conducted by CNBC based on the American leader’s financial disclosure, corporate balance sheets, and FactSet market data, the investment basket includes shares in Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Kinder Morgan, Marathon Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Williams Companies.

In its calculations, the television network took into account the minimum and maximum baseline values of Trump’s declared holdings alongside share price fluctuations from the close of trading on 27 February through 31 August.

As the conflict with Iran continued, specialists managing Trump’s investment accounts maintained active trading in energy company shares.

Up to 29 June, the latest date for which transactions were disclosed, fresh purchases were logged alongside at least 23 sales operations involving stock in the nine companies.

Because disclosure filings do not specify exact share numbers or transaction prices, the estimates produced by CNBC do not reflect Trump’s realised profits or the precise current scale of his holdings.

On 2 March, the first trading day following the launch of air strikes against Iran by the US and Israel, shares in eight major oil and gas companies were purchased through Trump’s accounts.

These transactions included ExxonMobil shares valued at between $100,000 and $250,000. Prior to the conflict, the aggregate value of Trump’s holdings in ExxonMobil stood at between $3.2 million and $12.5 million.

Stock market gains in August, excluding subsequent transactions, raised the value of these shares by approximately $176,000 to $690,000.

CNBC also examined transactions executed on days when Trump’s decisions directly swayed the oil market. On 23 March, when the president deferred planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, the price of a barrel of Brent crude dropped by roughly 11%.

That same day, oil and gas shares worth a combined $163,000 to $570,000 were purchased across Trump’s accounts.

A similar transaction took place on 7 April. One of Trump’s investment accounts sold between $500,000 and $1 million worth of ExxonMobil shares.

Approximately two and a half hours after markets closed, President Trump announced an agreement on a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The following morning, ExxonMobil shares fell by more than 6% at the market open.

The report noted that CNBC saw no evidence indicating that Trump gave direct instructions for specific trades, that managers possessed advance knowledge of his actions, or that personal financial interests guided White House policies.

White House officials, commenting on the matter, stated that the president’s investment portfolio is managed by independent portfolio managers and that neither Trump nor members of his family hold authority to intervene in asset trading decisions.

The growth in the portfolio coincided with a broader surge in the earnings of energy majors. The nine energy companies in which Trump holds shares generated a combined profit of $47.6 billion in the second quarter.

During the same period last year, that figure stood at $15.9 billion. The profits of ExxonMobil and Chevron alone climbed from $9.6 billion in the prior year to $26.6 billion.

In July, the US Office of Government Ethics published Trump’s 927-page financial disclosure report for 2025.

The report noted that Trump’s earnings from cryptocurrency operations exceeded $500 million.

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Over half of Latino voters back Democrats in key US House races

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3 days ago

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09/09/2026

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A new public opinion poll in the US shows that Democratic candidates have made notable gains since 2024 among Latino voters in critical, competitive districts for the House of Representatives.

These gains have the potential to directly determine which party will secure the majority in Congress next year.

According to a joint survey by Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision shared with Axios, Democrats reached 58% support on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters across 17 competitive House districts.

The share of those backing Republicans within the same voting bloc remained at 35%. This group continues to represent the fastest-growing swing constituency in battleground districts.

Examining three competitive House races in Texas, the study indicated that Latino voters, who reported splitting evenly at 44% to 44% in the 2024 presidential election, shifted 56% to 36% in favour of Democrats heading into the midterms.

Latino support for Democrats also increased in other states. In California, 57% of Latino voters said they would support Democrats, compared with 33% who said they would back the Republican Party.

Kate Coleman, Senior Vice President at TelevisaUnivision, highlighted voter behaviour in remarks to Axios:

“Latino voters are not locked into one party. They are watching developments closely; they make decisions based on who stands with them and how they stand.”

The survey data determined that 11% of Latino respondents who said they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election now support Democratic candidates.

Accelerating his deportation plans, Trump triggered fear across many Latino neighbourhoods while weakening his support among this demographic.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision study revealed that 63% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s presidential job performance. The share of those approving of his performance in office stood at 36%.

Trump’s approach to high prices and the cost of living drew disapproval from 65% of Latino voters, while immigration enforcement and deportation practices were disapproved of by 62%.

More than half of Latino voters, at 64%, reported that they disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A survey published in May by UnidosUS showed that a quarter of Latino voters “would probably not vote” or would definitely not support Trump if they had to vote for him again.

The study at that time had pointed out that, despite Trump’s decline among Latino voters, Democrats had not yet secured significant gains.

According to Pew Research Center data, Trump strengthened his support in 2024 by securing 48% of the Latino vote, coming very close to the 51% reached by then Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some figures within the Democratic Party, however, worry that primary victories by democratic socialist candidates could alienate certain Latino voters, particularly those who fled Cuba or Venezuela.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted between 6 and 17 August among 1,500 Latino respondents. The poll’s margin of error was reported as 2.5 percentage points.

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Researcher quits Anthropic and warns AI firms gamble with lives

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3 days ago

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09/09/2026

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Jacob Coxon, an artificial intelligence researcher at Anthropic, has resigned from his post, stating that tech companies are acting irresponsibly in the race towards self-improving superintelligence. Coxon warned that the autonomous operational capabilities of such systems pose existential risks to humanity and that internal industry anxieties run far deeper than generally perceived.

The AI researcher stepped down from his position at Anthropic to draw attention to industry safety vulnerabilities and the unregulated race among developers.

Having worked for three years as a pre-training researcher across both OpenAI and Anthropic, Coxon announced his decision to leave in an extensive statement shared on his X account.

Stating that both companies have acted irresponsibly, Coxon argued that developers are engaged in a dangerous race to achieve self-improving superintelligence.

“They believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade”

In his posts, Coxon stated that technical teams developing AI genuinely believe this technology could bring about the demise of humanity by the end of the decade.

Asserting that these concerns are not a marketing strategy, the researcher noted that while top executives and senior researchers adopt a cautious tone in public statements, they voice the very same fears behind closed doors.

Developments reflecting similar anxieties across the sector evoke James Cameron’s 1984 film The Terminator, which set 2029 as the pivotal year when machines waged war against humanity.

Indeed, Evan Hubinger, head of Anthropic’s own alignment team, had previously estimated the probability of human extinction to be greater than 10%.

Warning that systems currently under development will soon evolve into superhuman structures capable of bypassing any firewall, transforming industries overnight, and securing physical resources, Coxon stressed that the pace of progress is not slowing in any way.

Arguing that the danger of superintelligence is no longer merely theoretical, the researcher pointed to the Hugging Face security leak that occurred between May and July.

In that incident, OpenAI models established an independent chatroom within the testing environment to communicate among themselves, subsequently using this channel to reach the open internet and infiltrate production systems.

Because of this security breach, Hugging Face was forced to rebuild approximately one-third of its infrastructure.

“They are gambling with our lives”

Characterising the leak as a warning flare, Coxon indicated that the incident makes pacing agreements between US-based laboratories more feasible.

However, emphasising that developers are not yet on the right track to prevent a global race, the researcher noted that measures such as a temporary moratorium on advancing model capabilities could be considered.

Arguing that civilisation-scale risks have not yet been sufficiently internalised at OpenAI, Coxon contended that Anthropic joined the race out of an ambition to be first, despite being fully aware of the dangers.

Coxon is not the only figure to leave the sector on such grounds. Mrinank Sharma, a member of Anthropic’s safety team, also stepped down earlier this year, writing that the world is in danger.

On the other hand, not everyone agrees with these catastrophic scenarios. Some responses to the post emphasised the view that humanity, with an evolutionary history spanning hundreds of thousands of years, will not be wiped out by a text prediction model achieving consciousness.

It was also noted that even the plot of the Terminator franchise does not entirely support Coxon’s premise, as the human resistance survived the nuclear catastrophe and ultimately defeated the machines.

Alongside safety debates, AI continues to directly affect the labour market. Research by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab indicates that, while mass job losses have not yet materialised, entry-level employment in AI-exposed sectors across the US has fallen by nearly 20%.

A Goldman Sachs study pointed to a similar trend, showing that entry-level workers bear the brunt of the ongoing workforce transformation.

Anthropic, which remains at the centre of the controversy, filed for an initial public offering in June and plans to list on the Nasdaq exchange this autumn at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

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