Asia
A new era in South Korea–US relations: ‘Pragmatic diplomacy’ and strategic dependency
South Korea’s 14th President, Lee Jae Myung, presented a comprehensive vision for the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance during his first official summit in Washington. The Korea-U.S. relationship, a cornerstone of the regional security architecture since the Cold War, is now gaining a new dimension not only in the realm of military deterrence but also in the fields of technology, economy, energy, and cultural diplomacy.
President Lee’s speech at CSIS bears the hallmarks of a multifaceted strategy shaped by an understanding of “pragmatic diplomacy.” On one hand, Lee outlined the goal of deepening security cooperation with the U.S. in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities and China’s rising influence. On the other hand, he is positioning South Korea as a global actor in the fields of advanced technology, the defense industry, and cultural soft power.
This new approach moves the U.S.-South Korea alliance beyond the classic framework of “military dependence,” redefining it in areas such as multipolar competition in the Asia-Pacific region, North Korea’s nuclear threats, China’s economic pressures, and trilateral cooperation with Japan. President Lee’s speech signaled that Korean diplomacy in the coming period will follow a flexible strategy that is both aligned with Washington’s expectations and centered on Seoul’s national interests.
Strategic Vision: A “Golden Age” Alliance
According to Lee, this new era aims for a multi-layered strategic partnership that transcends the traditional, security-focused understanding of an alliance:
“A forward-looking, comprehensive, and strategic alliance rests firmly on three core pillars: security, economy, and advanced technology. This ironclad alliance, built on pragmatism and the national interests of our people, will shine brightly.”
Lee’s approach aims to make South Korea a premier partner for the United States in security, economy, technology, and culture. At the heart of this strategic transformation lies the concept of “pragmatic diplomacy,” which Lee frequently emphasizes. He defined this new diplomatic approach as follows:
“It is more urgent than ever to turn crises into opportunities and to lay the groundwork for new development. The best approach we need is to respond to rapidly changing global issues with strategic insight and flexible thinking; this can be called a pragmatic diplomacy focused on national interests.”
From this perspective, Lee aims to deepen relations with the U.S. not only on a security axis but also in the areas of advanced technology, energy, semiconductors, shipbuilding, and cultural soft power. While particularly underscoring U.S. defense commitments to Korea, he also signaled that South Korea would assume a more independent and leading role in security:
“The U.S. defense commitment to the Republic of Korea and our joint defense posture remain unwavering and resolute. At the same time, Korea will assume a more leading role in ensuring security on the Korean Peninsula.”
These words envision transforming the “military dependence” axis of the alliance, which has persisted since the Cold War, and elevating South Korea to the position of an equal strategic partner to the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific security architecture.
In another sense, Lee Jae Myung’s “golden age” vision also reflects the ambition to transform South Korea from being merely a U.S. defense ally into a multidimensional global actor.
The Security Alliance: Independent Deterrence and Strategic Solidarity with the U.S.
Emphasizing that his meeting with Donald Trump exceeded expectations, Lee stated that security guarantees between the two nations were reaffirmed:
“In our summit meeting with President Trump, we agreed to modernize our bilateral alliance to make it more reciprocal and forward-looking, in line with the changing security environment.”
One of the most notable topics in Lee’s remarks was South Korea’s determination to strengthen its defense capabilities. He demonstrated a concrete commitment, especially on issues such as increasing the defense budget, transitioning to a “smart army” concept, and expanding investments in the high-tech defense industry:
“First, we will increase our defense budget, which will be used to transform the Korean military into a smart army that can prevail in future wars. We will use this budget to acquire state-of-the-art technology and military equipment.”
Lee also reaffirmed the U.S. defense commitment to the Republic of Korea, drawing attention to the importance of this cooperation for the mutual security of both countries:
“The U.S. defense commitment to the Republic of Korea and our joint defense posture remain unwavering and resolute. At the same time, Korea will assume a more leading role in ensuring security on the Korean Peninsula.”
This rhetoric can be seen as a sign that South Korea continues to trust the U.S. but is also moving toward building a more independent deterrent by enhancing its own military capabilities. By emphasizing Korea’s willingness to take on increased responsibility, President Lee also sent a subtle message to Washington:
“Korea, once a beneficiary of American aid, has now become the largest greenfield investor in the U.S. We are now an ally that shares the burden, not just one that is protected.”
In short, Lee’s security strategy aims to protect shared interests, shaped by the security of the 28,500 U.S. troops and 200,000 American citizens in Korea, while simultaneously strengthening South Korea’s own deterrence capacity. This strategy clearly sends the message to Washington: “we will lighten your load.”
The Economic and Technology Alliance
President Lee Jae Myung’s framework aims to extend the alliance beyond security, deepening it along an advanced technology and economic axis. This approach aligns with recent analyses from think tanks. A Carnegie Endowment report noted that South Korea is well-suited for the role of a “critical-technology wingman” for the U.S. and stressed the need for the two countries to “deepen their policy and supply chains” together.
South Korea maintains its technological superiority by specializing in high-value vessel types such as LNG/dual-fuel ships. Industry data shows that South Korea creates significant share and value, particularly in LNG carriers; according to South Korean maritime records, the LNG segment accounts for approximately 52% of the order book’s value. Furthermore, a CSIS study documents in detail the established institutional cooperation infrastructure for naval maintenance, repair, and modernization with the U.S. (e.g., HD Hyundai’s MSRA agreement with the U.S. Navy; Hanwha Ocean’s MRO work on USNS ships).
In 2024, Korea’s total exports reached a historic peak of $683.8 billion, of which $141.9 billion came from semiconductors, increasing their share of total exports to 21%. These figures provide a strong economic foundation for deepening advanced technology ties with the U.S.
President Lee addressed this connection in his CSIS speech:
“South Korea and the U.S. will comprehensively tackle today’s challenges, where security and the economy converge, through an advanced technology alliance where different countries cooperate to achieve mutually beneficial growth.”
Reports from Brookings and CSIS indicate that the U.S. is reconfiguring its semiconductor ecosystem following the CHIPS Act and export controls. In this context, they state that the U.S.-South Korea technology alliance requires multi-layered integration centered on joint R&D, labor policies, and supply chain security. “Public investment is at unprecedented levels… flowing into manufacturing, R&D, and workforce programs.” (Brookings Institution, 2024)
Meanwhile, the “customs tariff agreement” highlighted in Lee’s speech aims to pave the way for next-generation technology chapters and applications beyond the KORUS Free Trade Agreement. According to USTR data, total U.S.-South Korea goods trade reached $197 billion in 2024. Tariff reductions and associated investment packages implemented in the summer of 2025 can be seen as a crucial policy bridge for deepening the advanced technology partnership between the two countries:
“The customs tariff agreement signed by our countries will serve as a stepping stone to strengthen advanced technology cooperation between our two nations. The K-shipbuilding industry, equipped with the world’s strongest capabilities, will bring about a renaissance in the U.S. shipbuilding industry and create a new historic milestone for mutual prosperity.”
Cultural and Identity-Based Messages
On the global stage, South Korea is pursuing a powerful strategy not only in security and economy but also along the axis of cultural diplomacy. Elements such as K-Pop, TV series, literature, and food have transformed the country’s brand perception, becoming central to its “soft power” strategy.
In a study, Tara Shafie from the University of California points out that K-Pop artists can be used as “effective tools in public diplomacy.” According to Shafie, the government is moving beyond traditional diplomatic tools by supporting these artists as “public diplomacy ambassadors.” In her report, Shafie states, “The combined economic and cultural power of the K-Pop industry makes it one of the most significant examples of soft power today,” and the data reinforces the validity of this assertion.
President Lee Jae Myung brought this topic to the forefront in his speech, asserting that South Korea has become a global soft power hub not just in security and economy, but also in culture and democracy. Lee linked the rising global influence of Korean culture to the nation’s peaceful experience with democracy, using these words:
“Korea has established itself as a cultural powerhouse, but I believe it will soon be known not only for its cultural achievements but also as an exemplary model of democracy. The strongest foundation of the South Korea-U.S. alliance is the trust and friendship shared by our peoples. Our peoples are making each other’s lives more prosperous, and this friendship is carrying our alliance toward a bright future.”
Another prominent element in Lee’s speech was his presentation of Korea’s democratic achievements as part of its cultural soft power strategy. According to Lee, Korea’s experience of overcoming crises like coups and martial law “without shedding a single drop of blood” was highlighted as one of the elements that makes Korean culture unique in the world:
“The Korean people managed to overcome the crisis without shedding a single drop of blood. Protestors fought for democracy by singing and dancing. This is the ultimate form of democracy and people power.”
Lee stated that Korean culture has become a global, not just regional, diplomatic tool and underscored its integration with American soft power instruments. Using examples like Netflix, K-Pop, and Korean cuisine, he summarized how Korea is building a “cultural bridge” that strengthens people-to-people ties:
“Young people in Korea and the U.S. now feel a strong connection listening to the music of ‘K-Pop Demon Hunters,’ broadcast worldwide on Netflix. Just as hamburgers and pizza are no longer exclusive to America, kimbap and ramyun are no longer exclusive to Korea.” This statement highlights Korea’s strategy of deepening cultural integration with the U.S. Korean dramas, popular music, and gastronomy are presented as soft power elements that strengthen relations between the peoples of the two countries.
According to official Korean government data:
- Exports of cultural content (music, TV series, games, films) reached $9.85 billion in 2024.
- The goal is to increase this figure to $36 billion by 2030.
- According to the Brand Finance Global Soft Power Index 2025, South Korea ranked 9th in culture and heritage, while rising to 7th in the entertainment and arts category.
All these statements by Lee position South Korea not just as a “technology and security actor” but also as a cultural hub. It is clear that the aim is to foster closer ties with the U.S. not only through security but also through cultural influence and a shared identity.
A Fine Balance on China, North Korea, and Japan
President Lee addressed South Korea’s foreign policy through the lens of U.S.-China competition, North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities, and trilateral cooperation with Japan. Lee’s messages demonstrated that Seoul is pursuing a flexible yet clear strategy within the multipolar dynamics of the Asia-Pacific. He directly responded to criticisms of “economic dependence on China” and openly stated that the traditional separation of security and economy is no longer sustainable:
“The model of ‘U.S. for security, China for the economy’ is no longer sustainable. We will adapt to U.S. export controls and the restructuring of the global supply chain,” he said.
However, Lee also emphasized that Korea would not completely burn its bridges with China due to geographical necessities, continuing:
“We cannot act contrary to U.S. policy, but due to our geographical proximity, we will focus on managing our necessary ties with China.”
This approach shows that while Seoul sends a message of strategic alignment to Washington, it aims to keep communication channels with Beijing open. Thus, South Korea is pursuing a balancing act, seeking to remain within the U.S.-led security axis while avoiding economic conflict with China.
The North Korea Problem: Deterrence + Dialogue
Regarding North Korea’s rapidly growing nuclear capabilities, Lee presented striking numerical data. These statements aim to both increase the sense of urgency in Washington and demonstrate South Korea’s strategic resolve. While Lee emphasized strong deterrence, he also stated that pressure alone would not be sufficient and that channels for dialogue must remain open. While calling on Washington for a “tougher joint policy,” he adopted a stance that avoids burning bridges with Beijing and Moscow.
“North Korea has the capacity to produce 10 to 20 nuclear weapons per year. Its intercontinental ballistic missile development is in its final stages, and its nuclear capability has increased by about 2.5 times in the last four years. We must maintain a strong deterrent against North Korea, but we cannot solve the problem with pressure alone. We must also keep dialogue channels open to avoid worsening the situation.”
Trilateral Cooperation with Japan: The Indo-Pacific Strategic Alignment
Lee specifically highlighted his visit to Japan before coming to the U.S. and reiterated the importance of the trilateral alliance. He assessed the Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation in the context of the North Korean threat, China’s growing influence, and the Indo-Pacific security strategy as follows:
“As President Trump has consistently emphasized, trilateral cooperation between Korea, the U.S., and Japan is critically important. These three countries will respond jointly to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats and will strengthen efforts to ensure peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.”
This statement shows that the Seoul administration is strengthening a Washington-centric bloc with Japan as part of its Indo-Pacific strategic alignment. In doing so, Seoul put forward its desire to build a trilateral line of deterrence against both North Korea’s threats and China’s regional ascent.
Asia
Ending Western reliance on China requires $23.6 trillion in investment by 2050, study shows
Western efforts to reduce reliance on China across strategic supply chains could cost the US, the eurozone, and the UK more than $23 trillion over the next quarter-century, according to a study highlighting the immense economic challenge confronting Western policymakers.
Economic analysis indicates that European and US authorities and corporations will need to invest an additional $23.6 trillion over the next 25 years to successfully end their dependence on China in critical sectors such as manufacturing and technology.
The consultancy EY-Parthenon calculated that rebuilding infrastructure, research, software, manufacturing, and supply chains currently reliant on China will cost the US $13.7 trillion, the eurozone $9.1 trillion, and the UK $800 billion by 2050.
For the US, the required annual capital expenditure from the government and private sector to decouple from China is estimated at $550 billion. This sum is roughly equivalent to the $600 billion major US technology companies are projected to invest in data centers in 2025. For the EU, EY-Parthenon estimated that the necessary spending would require nearly doubling the bloc’s annual budget.
The scale of investment required to substitute Chinese resources and materials, on which advanced economies are currently dependent, underscores the formidable challenge Western governments face as they attempt to curb Beijing’s dominance in strategic supply chains.
“Localizing supply chains without creating unbearable costs for taxpayers and consumers will be one of the most difficult challenges confronting both companies and governments in the coming years,” said Mats Persson, a former UK Prime Minister’s adviser who is now a partner at EY-Parthenon.
EY-Parthenon analysts wrote that an average collective additional investment of $940 billion annually over 25 years was, in theory, “not insurmountable.” However, this expenditure would need to be made on top of existing investments in energy, technology, defense, and infrastructure. Persson noted that initial annual outlays would start lower but would escalate as the transition expanded.
The vulnerability of European and US economies to Chinese leverage was exposed last year when Beijing introduced export controls on critical rare earth metals in response to US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 145% tariff on Chinese imports.
Automotive production lines in both economies ground to a near-standstill before a truce was reached between Beijing and Washington. The disruption accelerated efforts by the US and Europe to de-risk their relations with China, which included an EU plan to stockpile rare earth elements.
According to assessments by the International Energy Agency, China is projected to supply more than 60% of the world’s refined lithium and cobalt—materials vital to the transition to cleaner energy sources—and approximately 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earth elements until 2035.
Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at the investment bank Natixis, said that Beijing’s tight grip on many critical industrial materials meant the West could not decouple from China in the short term, even with massive investment.
“It is not just a question of how much it will cost,” García-Herrero said. “It is also China’s capacity to intervene to block such decoupling, given its current control over supply in everything from rare earth processing to active pharmaceutical ingredients.”
According to the EY-Parthenon analysis, Chinese-made goods generally benefit from a factory-gate price advantage of between 20% and 100% compared to Western competitors. Consequently, reducing dependence on Chinese manufacturing is expected to drive up prices and increase inflation.
The EY-Parthenon report noted that Europe cutting its reliance on China could raise prices in critical sectors by 1% to 2.5%. Citing an analysis by the European Central Bank, the report warned this could cause inflation rates to remain permanently above the 2% targets set by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
According to the report, Western economies seeking a meaningful reduction in China dependence will need to invest heavily in factory and physical infrastructure, as well as workforce training and the automation of production processes.
Given the scale of the challenges, Persson said that “partial decoupling” was a more probable outcome. Under this scenario, companies would need to be selective about where they allocate resources to build resilience against potential bottlenecks controlled by China.
Asia
China and Russia deploy submarines together in “Joint Sea-2026” drills
The joint deployment and first-ever combined visual capturing of Chinese and Russian submarines during a bilateral military exercise marks a major breakthrough in underwater coordination and signals an unprecedented level of mutual strategic trust between the two powers, according to military analysts.
The maritime phase of the joint naval exercise “Joint Sea-2026,” conducted by China and Russia, concluded on Saturday. According to China Bugle, the official media organ of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) News and Media Center, submarines from both the Chinese and Russian navies were photographed together in the same frame for the first time during the drills.
Speaking to the Global Times, a military affairs expert said the development demonstrates a high level of mutual trust that goes far beyond ordinary bilateral relations.
During the exercises, Chinese and Russian naval units conducted drills covering submarine rescue, strikes on surface targets, air defense, and anti-missile operations. China Bugle reported that both sides deepened mutual trust and further enhanced their joint operational capabilities through highly effective coordination.
The drills employed a flexible planning approach and applied rigorous standards to operational coordination. The joint maneuvers were conducted without predetermined, fixed scenarios; instead, operations were dynamically adapted to real-time battlefield conditions, hydrometeorological factors, and other variable elements.
Participating forces were organized into mixed formations. By utilizing sea, air, and submarine platforms, the two militaries established a multi-domain, integrated combat system.
According to China Bugle, this integrated structure effectively tested both sides’ capabilities in joint reconnaissance and early warning, command coordination, and firepower strikes within complex electromagnetic environments.
During the air defense and anti-missile drills, Chinese and Russian vessels operated in close coordination with a clear division of tasks. Leveraging the distinct strengths of their respective weapon platforms, the forces successfully intercepted incoming targets in the shortest possible time, demonstrating the combined combat capability of the joint Chinese-Russian naval force.
Held regularly since 2012, the “Joint Sea” exercises have become a cornerstone platform for naval cooperation between China and Russia.
According to official statements, both sides deployed elite forces for this iteration of the drills, encompassing surface, underwater, aerial, and support assets. In particular, the participation of submarines and submarine rescue vessels indicates that bilateral naval cooperation continues to expand from surface operations to integrated surface and underwater combat.
Following reports that Chinese and Russian submarines had been captured in the same frame for the first time, Chinese military expert Wang Yunfei told the Global Times on Sunday that the event represents an extraordinary level of mutual trust.
Wang noted that joint submarine operations are exceptionally rare worldwide. By their very nature, submarines operate on the principle of stealth, and their acoustic signatures are guarded by every country as highly classified intelligence.
Pointing out that such vessels are rarely shown in close proximity to one another, Wang said the joint sighting of the two submarines indicates they were operating in close quarters.
Under these conditions, the expert noted, the acoustic signatures of the submarines—including not only their noise levels but also their frequency characteristics—could mutually expose secrets to one another.
Official footage of the exercise revealed that Russia’s improved Kilo-class conventional submarine, the Ufa, participated in the drills, while the Chinese side deployed an improved Type 039B conventional submarine.
According to Wang, when China previously operated Russian-built Kilo-class submarines alongside identical Russian vessels, the implications were different because the acoustic signatures of those platforms were already known to both parties.
However, Wang emphasized that on this occasion, China showcased its domestically developed Type 039B submarine—widely considered state-of-the-art globally—to Russia, reflecting a level of mutual trust that goes beyond standard military exchanges.
Wang also pointed out that the participation of submarines in joint exercises involves communication and data exchange, which serves as another key indicator of high-level mutual trust.
Communication between submarines is highly complex, Wang said, explaining that one method involves raising an antenna above the water’s surface at communication depth. The other method is underwater acoustic communication, where a connection is maintained using specialized equipment—a method that is technically far more challenging.
Regardless of the method used, Wang noted that both sides must share their technical communication characteristics, methods, and tactics with one another.
This level of sharing enables the parties to achieve a high degree of tactical coordination when facing common adversaries, the expert said.
It remains extremely rare for two submarines to participate in joint exercises, share communication data, and coordinate strikes against targets.
Wang said that the ability of China and Russia to achieve this reflects not only the high level of mutual trust between the two sides but also the strong self-confidence of the Chinese military in its own capabilities.
The expert added that this milestone serves as a positive starting point for increasing the depth and intensity of future joint maneuvers.
Following the conclusion of the drills, China Bugle reported that some of the participating forces will conduct joint naval patrols in relevant areas of the Pacific Ocean to continue contributing to regional and international peace and stability.
According to China’s official state news agency, Xinhua, China and Russia launched the “Joint Sea-2026” exercise on July 6 at a military port in Qingdao, located in eastern China’s Shandong province.
A joint command consisting of task forces from both countries’ navies was established to oversee the drills.
Xinhua reported that the exercise would be carried out in three distinct phases: the assembly of forces, port-based planning, and maritime operations.
With the maritime operations phase of the China-Russia “Joint Sea-2026” exercise now concluded, the Chinese Ministry of Defense issued a statement on Sunday.
The ministry stated that both parties will continue to adhere to the principles of openness, transparency, and mutual trust, while further expanding the scope and depth of their joint training.
The ministry added that both nations will make greater contributions to building a maritime community with a shared future and safeguarding global peace and stability.
Asia
China weighs restricting foreign access to advanced AI models and tightening technology controls
China is considering restricting overseas access to its most advanced artificial intelligence models, including designs that have not yet been publicly released.
According to a Reuters report citing three sources familiar with the matter, the government in Beijing is increasing its control mechanisms to protect the domestic AI sector and its proprietary technologies.
Officials from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce have held a series of meetings over the past month with the country’s leading AI developers and technology giants. Represented at these discussions were major corporations including e-commerce platform Alibaba, TikTok owner ByteDance, and information technology firm Z.ai.
The meetings focused on potential restrictions that could be imposed on the distribution of China’s most modern AI models.
Sources said that Beijing plans to increase criminal liabilities for the leak or theft of AI technologies, treating such actions as equivalent to violations of national security law.
Other topics discussed during the meetings included the introduction of additional limitations on the funding of China-based AI startups.
The final framework of the new measures has not yet been established. Sources indicated that the potential restrictions might only affect models developed in the future. The date on which these regulations would take effect remains unknown.
Following the launch of the Chinese-developed DeepSeek R1 model, the country’s AI solutions strengthened their position in the global market by offering low costs and high performance. Industry analysts note that blocking foreign users from accessing these technologies could impact the global AI market and increase costs for companies that rely on Chinese models.
Beijing continues to expand its oversight of the domestic AI industry. According to Reuters, authorities initiated investigations earlier this year into several Chinese AI companies that had relocated their operations abroad. Controls have also been tightened on commercial transactions involving technology, data, and national security.
According to a report by the Financial Times citing internal sources, Beijing is also discussing plans to reduce the number of publications that Chinese scientists submit to foreign academic journals.
The report emphasized that these discussions are driven by growing concerns over technology leaks and a desire to strengthen state control over the dissemination of scientific research results.
In 2024, Chinese academics authored approximately one-third of all publications indexed in the Science Citation Index (SCI) database, which encompasses leading international scientific journals.
Industry experts state that China is transitioning from its previous goal of expanding its international scientific presence to a new phase focused on controlling the usage of technologies developed within its borders. According to these experts, Beijing aims with these moves to both protect its national security and maintain its leverage in the global scientific community.
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