On the morning of 26 October, Israel launched a major three-stage attack against Iran, codenamed ‘Day of Repentance’, in retaliation for the second rocket attack on 1 October. Israel’s Jerusalem Post reported that the Israeli air force used hundreds of stealth fighter jets to ‘accurately’ hit Iranian military targets. According to the information gathered, Israeli warplanes targeted Iranian military bases related to air defense, missiles and drones in Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam provinces.
Israel later announced the end of the counter-offensive against Iran. The Times of Israel reported that the Israeli government, through a third party, had informed Iran in advance of the targets of the attack and warned it not to respond. This is the first time Israel has carried out an air strike against Iran since its independence, and the fact that it easily defeated Iran’s air defense system shows that Israel has absolute air dominance over Iran, long-range precision strike and large-scale bombing capability. The F-35 stealth fighter is said to have a range of up to 3,500 kilometers at maximum payload.
Iranian official sources said the vast majority of the attacks had been thwarted, causing limited damage, and killing two soldiers. Iran’s First Vice President Ali Reza posted a message on social media saying, ‘Iran’s power has shamed the enemy’. Iranian airspace was immediately opened and civil aviation returned to normal. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it reserved the right to retaliate against the attacks.
Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, and Iraq immediately condemned Israel. Jordan also denied allegations that Israeli warplanes had been allowed to fly over it. The United States said it supported Israel’s right to ‘self-defense’ and warned Iran not to retaliate.
In full view of the world, the ‘second stage’ of Israel’s retaliation finally took place, and the severity and scope of the attack was as expected. Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities were not targeted and there were no serious casualties. Almost all Arab countries with diplomatic relations with Israel condemned the attack. Therefore, symbolic reprisals between Iran and Israel are expected to end in the short term.
While the possibility that Israeli stealth warplanes flew through Jordanian and Saudi airspace to carry out the attack cannot be completely ruled out, there is no evidence that the Arab neighbors are aiding Israel in violation of their recent pledges, nor is there evidence that US warplanes in these countries were involved in the attacks.
More importantly, Iran has entered a period of rapprochement with its Arab neighbors, indicating that it wants to avoid further escalation. On the other hand, Iran is leading a united front of Shiite colors, the ‘Axis of Resistance’, continuing its past proxy and shadow wars with Israel. Thus, while the left hand embraces the Arabs, the right hand can create a new normalization process in the conflict with Israel and exhaust Israel with a long-term low-intensity warfare method. Iran, which finds its new and solid relationship with Saudi Arabia particularly valuable, is trying to win back the Arab countries that once distanced themselves from it.
On the 23rd, Turki al-Maliki, spokesman for the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Defence, announced that Saudi Arabia had recently conducted joint naval military exercises with Iran and other states in the Gulf of Oman. On the 19th, Iranian media reported that Iran, Oman, and Russia had launched a joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean to which observers from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand had been invited. In addition, the Iranian Student News Agency quoted Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani on 21 October as saying: ‘Saudi Arabia has asked to hold joint exercises in the Red Sea’.
The sudden increase in military interaction between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Oman and other Arab neighbours shows that the major powers in the Persian Gulf region are actively seeking cooperation and trying to take control of the situation in an environment where the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues and there is no hope of a quick resolution. The fact that Iran and Saudi Arabia held joint military exercises for the first time demonstrates the strengthening of strategic trust and interaction following the historic reconciliation brokered by Beijing in March last year. It also underscores the Middle Eastern countries’ quest for independent leadership in regional affairs and their determination to rebuild their geopolitical relationships and security structures. It also increases the likelihood that US efforts to create a ‘Middle Eastern version of NATO’ with Israel and the Gulf Arab states will fail.
Therefore, despite Israel’s large-scale bombing of Iran, Iran is still in an advantageous position and the influence of the superpowers in the region has been revealed. The fact that the two military exercises took place back-to-back and covered a large area of the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, as well as the lack of open support for Israel’s air strikes by neighboring countries, indicates that Iran has activated the situation.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s covert efforts to persuade Israel, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi’s ‘peace efforts’ and ‘diplomatic shuttle’ with Egypt and the Gulf Arab states, appear to have forced Israel to limit its attack targets to Iran’s military installations and to ignore its nuclear and oil facilities. This is fully in line with the expectations of all parties. It should also be noted that this is a period when the interests of the US and Israel are not fully aligned.
The current situation in Iran has improved significantly. In April this year, Iran carried out its first major air strike against Israel, and traditional allies such as the United States and Britain intercepted Iranian missiles and drones with naval and air power. The Arab neighbors between Iran and Israel explicitly or implicitly supported Israel: Jordan was directly involved, deploying its air defense forces and opening its airspace to Israeli warplanes. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reportedly provided intelligence support to Iran’s rivals.
The military impact of Iran’s initial retaliation against Israel was almost nil. This was due to the fact that Israel was fully prepared, having been warned in advance of the targets to be attacked, and that it chose weak precision-strike weapons systems with long flight times, but it was also clear that American naval and air bases in Arab countries played an important role in the intervention.
By carrying out the first air strike, Iran earned the title of ‘brave’ for a proportionate retaliation in accordance with international law and enhanced the credibility of the ‘axis of resistance’, which included parties such as Syria, the Islamic Resistance Movement in Palestine (Hamas), Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthi militias in Yemen and the ‘Popular Mobilisation Force’ in Iraq. Iran thus consolidated its leading position vis-à-vis Israel but lost the diplomatic battle and found itself at odds with its neighbors. This time, however, Iran has escaped the isolation and distress of the struggle with Israel and has won the sympathy of its Arab neighbors.
The rapprochement between Iran and its Arab neighbors could reduce the shadow cast by Israel’s air strikes. In a recent joint naval exercise, Iran cooperated not only with its traditional post-Cold War ally Russia, but also with Oman, where the US and Britain have military bases, and notably invited its old rival Saudi Arabia as an observer. Most pleasing to Iran was Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement and cooperation, which marked a significant shift. Saudi Arabia announced that it would be a participant in the joint exercise, not an observer, which undoubtedly strengthened Iran’s position and reinforced the two countries’ efforts to implement the ‘Beijing Declaration’ and increase strategic trust and cooperation.
Saudi Arabia has also contributed to the reshaping of the regional security architecture by calling for joint exercises with Iran in the Red Sea, its traditional sphere of influence. This could be a sign of Saudi goodwill towards the pro-Tehran Houthi militias, as well as an opportunity for Tehran to wait for the Houthis to resume ceasefire negotiations that have been stalled for years. If the war in Yemen ends with the withdrawal of coalition forces, it would be a complete victory for the Houthi militias and Iran would emerge as the big winner in the long-running conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea.
In June this year, Iran proposed the establishment of a maritime security cooperation mechanism with Saudi Arabia and other regional countries, with the aim of increasing the security defense independence of countries in the region. The consolidation and expansion of the reconciliation process with Saudi Arabia, followed by joint military exercises with Oman and Saudi Arabia, have taken Iran’s idea of regional maritime collective security a step further and partially expanded the diplomatic initiative.
Iran’s diplomacy has taken a new direction and is linked to Saudi Arabia’s recent rapid diplomatic shift. Israel’s aggressive policy, its refusal to recognize the ceasefire in Gaza and the deep suffering of the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples have put enormous internal and external pressure on Saudi Arabia, which sees itself as the Arab leader. This is why Saudi Arabia has not only postponed indefinitely negotiations on a military alliance with the United States but has also suspended the normalization of relations with Israel. At the same time, it returned to the principle of ‘peace in exchange for land’ that it had been advocating since 1982 and maintaining for almost half a century, stressing the need to implement the two-state solution and ensure Palestinian independence, and declaring that only in this way would normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations be possible.
In this way, Saudi Arabia is expressing its dissatisfaction with the unilateral US support for Israel and its anger at the ‘Israel kills and the US holds the knife’ model. At the same time, it is trying to show the Palestinians, the Lebanese, and the entire Arab and Islamic world its responsibilities and obligations as a great power. In this respect, Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a new competition for power peacefully.
Iran, as a non-Arab country of Persian nationality and Shia faith, has raised the banner of Palestinian liberation, leading many non-nation actors to play a new leading role in the Middle East conflicts. This role reversal places Arab countries seeking reconciliation with Israel in a dilemma of “big interests, small morals”, which deeply upsets the political balance of power in the Arab world. This, in turn, has negative consequences for the overall stability and political tradition of the Arab world and has the potential to ultimately undermine the core interests of US allies such as Saudi Arabia.
There are structural conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia, including sectarian, ethnic, political system, national strategy, and foreign policy differences, as well as competition for regional status and Islamic discourse. This has led to strained relations, frequent clashes, and even multiple breaks over the past 40 years. The roots of these conflicts lie not only in internal differences on both sides, but also in the rivalry of external powers during and after the Cold War. More than a decade of violent conflicts, from the ‘Arab Spring’ to the ‘Arab Winter’, further deepened the Iranian-Saudi conflict and brought it to a peak; eventually, both sides, overstretched with their limited forces, sought compromise and peace.
The declining influence of the traditional great powers has made Middle Eastern countries more aware of their own independence and empowerment, enabling Iran and Saudi Arabia to take stock of the situation, completely put aside past hostilities and actively reach out to each other. China’s mediation played an important role in this reconciliation.
By mobilizing the ‘Axis of Resistance’, Iran is launching a ‘sixth Middle East war’, unlike the five previous Middle East wars, confronting Israel on seven fronts. This has significantly shifted Israel’s key rivals, decision-making centers and ‘storm center’ from Cairo and Damascus to Tehran. Strategically, it has elevated Iran’s superpower status in the region and strengthened its geographical influence from the Caspian Sea to the Red Sea. This massive change and transformation have led Saudi Arabia to choose to actively participate in and shape Iran’s reshaping of the geopolitical map rather than passively accept it; in other words, it has decided to sit at the table rather than be the dish on the menu.
In this new Middle East war, which stretches from the eastern Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf, although the quite different and even contradictory positions and secret games between Iran and Saudi Arabia on resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continue, the two countries have passed the tough tests and wisely managed to avoid confrontation. This has not only preserved reconciliation, cooperation, and stability, but also contributed to deepening strategic trust and increasing positive interaction. This is certainly a welcome sign of optimism for the turbulent Middle East and worthy of support.
However, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the direct cause of Israel’s ‘war on seven fronts’ today. The key to an immediate ceasefire in the ‘sixth Middle East war’, involving large and multinational civil society actors, is to extinguish the flames of conflict in Gaza. Lasting peace and security in the Middle East depend on a fundamental settlement of the territorial disputes between Israel and Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria. This requires getting rid of the deep-rooted dreams of a ‘Greater Israel’, the law of the jungle mentality and the belief in the use of force.
Similarly, Iran, a perennial flashpoint, must realize that geopolitics cannot be a source of livelihood, even if decades of complex relations reflect ‘Persian acumen’. Persian acumen’ should seek a win-win situation based on peace that benefits others as well as itself. The pursuit of national interests and the attainment of great power status must be in line with the trend towards peace, development, and prosperity, especially for one’s own people.
Today, while there is a growing tendency among Arab and Islamic countries in the Middle East to live in peace with Israel, Iran clings to the past and refuses to recognize Israel’s existence as a sovereign state, placing it in a tense standoff with the United States and the Western world. This leads to the suffering of its own people due to the prolonged blockade and sanctions, while at the same time increasing the tension of the Middle East conflicts, the fragility of geopolitical relations and the fragmentation of regional governance. As a result, this paves the way for far-right forces in Israel to gain strength and solid popular support. As a result, proposals for ‘peace for land’ and a ‘two-state solution’ have failed to materialize.
Prof. Ma is Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University (Hangzhou). He specializes in international politics, especially Islam and Middle East politics. He worked for many years as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.
