Is Israel’s attack on Iran’s diplomatic mission in Damascus a turning point?

Last week, Israel hit Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria in a strike that Iran said killed seven of its military advisers. Among them there were three senior commanders, marking a major escalation in Israel’s war with its regional adversaries. General Zahedi along with General Hossein Aminollahi and General Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi were killed in the attack. This offensive represents a major escalation in the targeted actions against Iranian stakes in Syria, intensifying Israel’s ongoing military efforts against Iran and its allied entities amid the wider reverberations of the Gaza conflict across the Middle East.

Yet, this was not the first time Israel has targeted Iran’s army elements in Syria and those of its proxies, but the attack on April 1st was the first time Israel hit the embassy compound itself.

Since 2010, Israel has conducted several operations in Iranian territories including assassinations. A considerable number of the targets were connected to Tehran’s disputed nuclear program which is, according to Israel, an existential menace. Several scientists but mainly physicist and nuclear physicist were assassinated and Iran blamed Israel for the killings some of which was denied by Tel Aviv but confirmed by Washington.

From 2021 to 2023, several attacks targeted Iran’s nuclear, industrial and defense production facilities. In June 2021, an Israeli drone hit a facility which manufactures centrifuges for nuclear program in Karaj and a fire broke out. Six Israeli quadcopter drones demolished hundreds of drones at a base near Kermanshah. The facility served as the principal site for Iran’s production and warehousing of military unmanned aerial vehicles. In May 2022, explosive-equipped quadcopter drones, allegedly deployed from within Iran, struck the Parchin military complex located 37 miles southeast of Tehran. In the following month, Drones carrying explosives targeted a central military installation in Isfahan. Also, several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps high ranked soldiers were targeted. Some of them were kidnapped and some were shot.[1]

These are some of the attacks conducted by Israel within the territory of Iran. Bu the attacks were not limited to that. Iranian military bases or its proxies outside Iran, mainly in Syria were hit several times in Syria. Yet, the attack which escalated the tensions most was the assassination of General Qasem Solaimani. In 2020, the United States conducted an airstrike in Iraq that resulted in the death of Iran’s elite Quds Force leader who was highly influential in directing Iranian military strategies in the Middle East. This attack technically did not count in Israel’s record but the assassination order was given by former President of the US, Donald Trump, which is, for Iran, equals to Israel. Soleimani was seen as the most powerful figure in Iran after the supreme leader before he was assassinated in a US drone strike in Iraq on January 3^rd, 2020.

Iran, usually keep threating Israel with harsh responses but at the same time acting patient trying to avoid another regional war, during a military initiative known as Operation Martyr Soleimani, fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles at the Al-Asad Airbase in the Al Anbar Governorate of western Iraq and another airbase in Erbil on January 8, 2020. Other than that, many of Iran’s actions were symbolic or at “proportionate response” level.

But is Israel’s attack Iran’s diplomatic mission in Damascus a turning point? Will Iran give a harsh response to this attack or take it as a provoking act to drag Iran into a war? These are the questions everybody nowadays try to find an answer.

After the attack, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran who holds ultimate authority over state affairs, pledged retribution, stating “We will make them regretful about the crime and similar acts.” The UN secretary general, António Guterres, condemned the attack and called on “all concerned to exercise utmost restraint and avoid further escalation”. Israel, has been preparing for Iranian retaliation. “None of the embassies of the [Israeli] regime are safe any more,” Gen Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Tasnim agency. Also, the head of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group characterized the recent airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, as a turning point and promised that a response from Iran was inevitable.

On Thursday, Israel’s foreign department and domestic intelligence and security office Shin Bet, made the decision to temporarily shut down multiple Israeli embassies worldwide in response to security concerns and the potential threat of reprisals from Iran, following the deaths of seven Iranian officers in a Damascus strike linked to Israel. Subsequent to their closure, Israeli ambassadors were instructed to refrain from reporting to their embassy offices.

The United States heightened its alert status following Iran’s declaration of intent to retaliate against Israel’s assault. A high-ranking U.S. official indicated to Reuters that America was taking precautionary measures in anticipation of a potential strike by Iran, which might target Israeli or American bases in the region as retribution for the attack on the consulate.

Iran’s Ambassador to Türkiye: The Islamic Republic of Iran has the right to give a proportionate response to this attack

Trying to find an answer to what Iran will do as a respond to Israel’s attack to Iranian consulate in Damascus, I knocked the doors of Iranian Embassy in Ankara on Thursday. Iran Islamic Republic’s Ambassador to Türkiye, Mohammad Hassan Habibollahzadeh told me that Israel only understand from brute force not from negotiations.  In our conversation lasting more than an hour, Ambassador Habibollahzadeh explained at length that the international system established by the Westerners to stop the massacres they committed against themselves was not working. He took the conversation back to the circumstances that led to the Treaty of Westphalia and the history of the mass killings which continued until World War 2.

“Westerners have waged great wars throughout history. Millions of people died in the 20th century. The establishment of the United Nations took place only after this great massacres. The United Nations system was established to maintain peace and avoid war and the killing of innocent people. But due to the deviation from the original goals of its establishment, by granting the right of veto, the United Nations Security Council has practically become a club of victorious countries that protect their profits in the world. And maintaining peace in the world has become a function of their political desires.” told me Ambassador Habibollahzadeh.Iranian Ambassador recalled: After October 7, only the United States vetoed some resolutions in the UN Security Council regarding stopping Israeli attacks, establishing a ceasefire, or providing humanitarian aid. “At the last time on March 25th, the resolution was issued under the pressure of public opinion; they said it is not binding.  So, it was not implemented.” said the Ambassador.

According to Ambassador Habibollahzadeh, the Palestinian people have been resisting occupation and killing for more than 7 decades. Resolutions have been issued by the United Nations. Many have been vetoed by the big powers. But the question is, after all these years and all these resolutions, have they been able to secure the rights of the Palestinian people? Many have now reached this stage that Palestinians have the right to defend themselves against violations of international laws and Israeli occupations that have continued since 1948.

Expressing that what the Palestinian resistance groups do, is, to speak a language that Israel can understand, when it comes to Israel’s attack on Iran’s diplomatic mission in Damascus, Ambassador Habibollahzadeh repeats the same words and says “Israel does not recognize international laws and deserves an appropriate response. Israel has reached a turning point and crossed many red lines in disproportionate and baseless attacks. Attacking hospitals, schools, residential complexes, international aid workers, starving people and now attacking the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Diplomatic missions are under international protection and have immunity within the framework of the Vienna Agreement of 1961.”

Recalling that the United Nations Security Council held a meeting in this regard, and despite the fact that attacking a diplomatic place is a clear violation of international law and the 1961 Vienna Convention, unfortunately, due to the unfair system governing international organizations, the Western powers prevented the issuance of a simple statement of conviction, the Iranian Ambassador told me “The Islamic Republic of Iran has the right to give a proportionate response to this attack”.

And what did Israel intend with this attack? Can Iran respond to an attack on a diplomatic mission tit-for-tat?

Mesut Hakkı Caşın, a professor of international law and a member of the Security and Foreign Policy Council of the Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye, told me that Israel wants to somehow expand the front in the war and aims to draw Iran into the war, “Israel wants to prove the hypothesis that Iran has nuclear weapons. The only way to do this is to continue its provocative actions.” According to the Vienna Convention, an attack on a state’s diplomatic mission is considered an attack on that state. “Iran is legally entitled to retaliate. But this is a controversial issue in the law of states,” Professor Caşın said, adding that it is unclear whether Iran would attack Israel’s diplomatic mission in another state. “We see that the message given by the Iranian religious leader in Friday prayers is characterized as strategic patience. So I don’t think Iran will launch a direct missile attack directly on Israeli territory, but it is not possible to say that Iran will not respond at all.” Caşın said that it is possible for Iran to take an action to appease its own public opinion and especially the Revolutionary Guards, and added that the next week is very critical.

A researcher on Iran, Adem Yılmaz has a similar take saying that for Iran, keeping the drums of war away from the border is the most fundamental issue. “As it is known, the most basic practice of Islam is prayer, the founding leader of the revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, said that protecting the revolution is even more important than prayer. At this point, the most vital issue for Iranian officials is to ensure the continuity of the current order and to stay away from a war that would weaken the regime.” says Yılmaz and adds, “Iran’s attack on the diplomatic mission in Damascus is a direct attack on Iranian territory and killed important commanders of Quds Force. Despite all these challenges, I think Iran will not give a strong response. It could be a move similar to the attack on Ayn al-Assad base with advance notice, in revenge for Soleimani. This will both meet the expectations of the domestic public, albeit temporarily, and prevent tensions from rising.”

The Friday sermons read by Ayatollah Khamenei’s representatives in various cities this week also indicate that there will be no harsh response. “These sermons give clues about Khamenei’s stance on a certain issue. The common message of the sermons was to be patient and not to act impulsively while retaliating against Israel. Likewise, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian’s first visit abroad after this attack was to Oman. Oman is Iran’s mailbox through which it communicates with the West in times of crisis.” the researcher on Iran Adem Yılmaz, told me.

Several western media outlets have reported that the US officials held undisclosed meeting with Iranian politicians in Oman earlier this year. The topics allegedly covered the tensions in Middle East, Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea besides the attacks targeting American military bases in Iraq. “Having channels of communication, even if indirect, can certainly be useful to mitigating the possibility of miscalculation and misunderstanding,” the Iran Director for International Crisis Group told international media following the previous unofficial indirect talks betweet Americans and Iranians. Following Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan’s visit to Oman, it remains unknown whether a new letter will be left in the mailbox by the US.

Serra Karaçam, a US-based international journalist tells me that the domestic atmosphere in the US focused on Biden’s needed re-election and warnings that Iran has efforts to increase its nuclear capacity. Israeli lobby in Washington D.C. keeps on running down Biden’s actions such as lifting the sanctions against Iran and that the dozens of billions of barrels of oil were sold to China. Pointing out that the killing of the workers of World Central Kitchen in Gaza, the US now has to convince Israel on a deal to minimize civilian casulaties, Karaçam says “The message of ‘patience’ in Iran’s Friday sermon was perceived as giving the US time to force Israel to adopt new tactics. Israel does not want to soften, slow down or withdraw without capturing Yahya Sinwari, Hamas’ leader in the Gaza Strip. This would mean weakness for Israel. However, Iran may not retaliate for the attack on the diplomatic mission in Damascus if Israel withdraws from Gaza and the reconstruction process begins. If this equation does not materialize, Iran could target Mossad bases in the Kurdish regions of Iraq, as it has done in the past. In the Red Sea, the Houthis could continue to target US commerce. If the attack goes not responded, Iran’s image will also suffer. This is an image war for all sides.” According to Karaçam, Iran’s response to the consulate attack through Hezbollah would further complicate the region but the United States always keeps this possibility in mind and must continue to back, defend and support Israel against Hezbollah.

[1] The Iran Primer, The US Peace Institute, https://iranprimer.usip.org/