In different parts of Lebanon and even in Syria, pagers belonging to Hezbollah members were blown up simultaneously, followed the next day by radios. This new generation of attacks, organised on an unprecedented scale, caused astonishment and horror not only in Lebanon but throughout the world. Although Israel made no statement on the matter, Hezbollah blamed Israel for the attacks and said it would retaliate.
Similar assassinations have been carried out by intelligence services in the past, but never on the scale of the attacks on Hezbollah members.
Considering the psychological damage caused by this attack, which disregarded the rules of international law and led to the injury and even death of many civilians, these attacks can be described as an act of terrorism. So much so that these acts have caused a serious sense of horror throughout the world, including in our country.
Not only the Lebanese, but people all over the world have become reluctant to use mobile phones, tablets, computers and even baby monitors, which are an integral part of their lives.
Israel has not specifically claimed responsibility for these attacks. First of all, targeting people without distinguishing between civilians and combatants is a problematic attack even for a lawless country like Israel. Although it is the usual suspect, it may not be possible to link Israel to these attacks on the basis of the evidence.
On 8 October, Hezbollah opened a new front from southern Lebanon to northern Israel in support of Gaza. The mutual attacks have been going on for almost a year, with increasing loss of life and property on both sides. So far, despite all the Israeli provocations, Hezbollah has been very cautious and diligent, avoiding a large-scale war while maintaining fierce resistance.
So, what is Israel, which has not refrained from daily conventional attacks and assassinations since 8 October, up to with a new generation of attacks?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under domestic and international pressure. At home, Netanyahu is facing mass protests over judicial reforms aimed at increasing his control over the government. Many in Israel see Netanyahu’s efforts to weaken the independence of the judiciary as an authoritarian trend. Meanwhile, in the face of widespread protests, his foreign policy achievements, particularly his ability to deal with Hezbollah, are becoming a trump card that he can use to boost his popularity at home. Netanyahu does not want Israel to appear weak in the face of Iran and Hezbollah. He wants to show Israelis a tangible success against Hezbollah and the Iranian threat, with the image of a strong leader. This is exactly the show of strength he needs, as the anniversary of the heavy blow dealt by Hamas in the 7 October Aqsa flooding operation and the weakness in intelligence gathering are approaching.
The new generation of attacks against Hezbollah is a strategic move by Netanyahu to demonstrate his intelligence capabilities and fend off domestic criticism. With these operations, Netanyahu is trying to show the Israeli public that the government is pursuing a deterrent and effective policy against regional threats. Netanyahu uses such attacks as a strategic tool to reduce political pressure at home and to remain a strong leader abroad. However, if the situation in the region escalates further, an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon will remain on the table as an option.
Perhaps one of the most important reasons for these attacks is to target Lebanese society in order to undermine support for Hezbollah and strengthen the hand of opposing groups. There is a serious possibility that Lebanese society, with its multi-sectarian structure and lack of nationhood as we know it, will be dragged into chaos rather than unity in the face of external threats. Undoubtedly, in such a scenario, it would be difficult for Hezbollah to engage in a more intense or prolonged struggle with Israel, and its resistance could be broken.
Israel’s use of high technology to target Hezbollah indicates that the conflict has entered a new phase. It is not yet clear whether such operations are a prelude to a wider war or an attempt to contain the conflict without turning it into a full-scale war. Netanyahu’s strategy is focused on dealing with both internal and external threats, but the risk of these tensions escalating into a wider regional war is still on the table.
Israel may expect Hezbollah to retaliate harshly after these attacks. Since it is difficult for Hezbollah to respond in the same way with a new generation of attack, it may want to respond with a heavier conventional response. In such a situation, especially in the case of a Hezbollah attack with civilian casualties, Israel could easily portray itself as the victim, as it did after Operation Aqsa Flood. By claiming to be exercising its ‘right of self-defence’ to the US and European countries, which have already been subjected to such a fiction, Israel could lay the groundwork for a major attack or ground operation in Lebanon.
