In the wake of Hamas’ Operation Aqsa Flood, which left Israel deeply shaken, the Netanyahu administration’s relentless bombardment of Gaza, replete with contentious statements and acts potentially classified as war crimes, has failed to make Hamas back down. Hakkı Uygur, Chief of the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM), has likened Israel’s response to a tantrum. Uygur predicts, “Once the tantrums subside and a substantial toll is exacted in bloodshed, Israel will inevitably find itself at the negotiating table with Hamas, and this time, it will entail genuine negotiations.”
Uygur, at the helm of IRAM, shared insights on Iran-Hamas relations, Turkey’s stance, and the potential ramifications of the operation in the region.
-What is Iran’s role in the Aqsa Flood?
Iran undeniably plays a central role in this crisis. Tehran’s official stance of denial is motivated by legal and political considerations. The Palestinian cause, in general, and collaboration with Hamas, in particular, have deep historical roots. While the extent of Iran or Hezbollah’s involvement in the operational details remains concealed due to the clandestine nature of the operation, it’s crucial to distinguish between the planning, techniques, weaponry, rhetoric, and other facets.
-Given Israel’s shock and the magnitude of its response, how do you assess the likelihood of the war spreading to Lebanon and Syria?
The extension of this conflict to Lebanon and Syria would not be advantageous for Israel, and it could have dire consequences for the United States. That’s why we’ve seen warnings from the U.S. advising against expanding the conflict: “You can target Gaza, but avoid spreading the turmoil.”
-Netanyahu said, “We will change the Middle East.” What do you think he means?
Netanyahu is acutely aware that this operation could potentially end his political career, and he is determined not to be remembered as the leader who presided over one of Israel’s most disastrous defeats. Therefore, it is more critical to scrutinize his actions rather than his rhetoric. Expecting him to boast about avenging Israel through the deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians is unlikely.
-What will this Hamas operation change in the region?
