Oil prices have risen above $90 a barrel for the first time in more than a month after the United States launched a new wave of strikes against Iran and the American military death toll from the conflict increased.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by 2.5% to $90.30 a barrel in early Asian trading on Monday. Prices have advanced by more than 23% this month, putting oil on track for its largest monthly increase since March, when hostilities were at their peak.

Oil last traded above $90 a barrel on 11 June.

The surge in prices follows an escalation in retaliatory strikes between the US and Iran. Washington confirmed over the weekend that it had suffered further military casualties, whilst Tehran targeted critical energy and water infrastructure in the region. At least three US service members have been killed in attacks since Friday, with officials stating that remains recovered in Jordan may belong to a fourth soldier.

In an assessment published on Monday, commodity analysts at ANZ noted that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had “collapsed” due to heightened security anxieties. The analysts added that rising production in the US has been insufficient to offset shipping disruptions in the Gulf, whilst Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports has further disrupted global energy supplies.

The US has launched strikes against Iran for a ninth consecutive night. Washington stated that the operations targeted various military facilities, coastal surveillance stations, and communications networks in an effort to degrade Tehran’s capability to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported late on Sunday that two oil tankers attempting to navigate the “unsafe” southern route of the strait had been “blown up and halted.” In a statement published on social media, the Revolutionary Guards emphasised that the US had “provoked” the attack.

“This is our territory,” the statement said, declaring that there was no “legal” basis for the intervention of the US military, which had travelled thousands of kilometres. The IRGC added that no oil, natural gas, or fertiliser would be permitted to pass through the strait as long as hostile US activities in the region continued.

In a separate statement, the Revolutionary Guards announced that they had targeted US military C-17 transport aircraft and P-8 reconnaissance aircraft at Aqaba Airport, acting on “intelligence” provided by Jordanian citizens.

British maritime authorities reported on Monday that a fire had broken out on board a vessel north of Oman. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) stated that “the cause of the fire cannot be confirmed at this stage,” advising vessels in the area to navigate with caution.

Markets outside of the oil sector remained relatively stable. The dollar was flat against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners, whilst the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was unchanged at 4.55%. S&P 500 and Stoxx Europe 600 futures also traded flat, while Asian equity markets presented a mixed picture.

US officials maintained that the primary objective of the current military strikes is to secure the safe passage of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

A new public opinion poll published in Israel reveals that the political balance of power has shifted against the current ruling coalition ahead of the country’s upcoming general election.

According to the poll broadcast by Channel 13 television, the anti-Netanyahu bloc, led by former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to secure the majority required to form a government in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.

The current governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to win only 50 seats in the 120-member legislature.

The poll results indicate that the Yashar Party, led by former Chief of General Staff Eisenkot, would win 21 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud party would retain 22 seats, remaining the largest single party in the Knesset.

However, the three parties securing the next highest number of seats behind Likud are all aligned with the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

Opposition parties secure majority to form government

The survey projects that former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Birlikte (Together) Party would win 15 seats, while the left-leaning Democrats Party, led by Yair Golan, would secure 11 seats.

The Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by Avigdor Liberman, is projected to win 10 seats, while a political alliance formed by former Minister Yoaz Hendel and National Unity Party member Hili Tropper is expected to secure four seats in the Knesset.

Channel 13 reported that this projected outcome gives the anti-Netanyahu parties a “clear majority” to form a new government.

In contrast, within Netanyahu’s current ruling coalition, the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party is projected to win eight seats, while the Shas party is expected to secure seven.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party is projected to win seven seats, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party is expected to win six.

Commenting on the poll results, the Haaretz newspaper noted: “If the election were held today, Netanyahu’s governing coalition would win a total of only 50 seats.”

Arab parties not required for new coalition

According to the poll data, the Arab parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al are projected to win five and four seats, respectively. However, the anti-Netanyahu bloc would not require their support to form a new government.

Another Arab party, along with the Blue and White party led by Benny Gantz, is projected to fall below the 3.25% electoral threshold, failing to enter the Knesset.

The general election is scheduled to take place on October 27. While this coalition of parties, referred to in Israel as the “Zionist opposition bloc,” opposes Netanyahu politically, it aligns with the current government on security policies.

These opposition parties, characterized as centrist or right-leaning, hold views similar to those of current government members on issues such as the military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as military action against Iran.

61% of Israelis oppose Netanyahu candidacy

A study published last month by the Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute also showed that a large majority of the public views Netanyahu’s political future unfavorably.

According to the study, 61% of surveyed Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run in the upcoming election.

The proportion of those supporting the prime minister’s re-candidacy remains at 35%. Netanyahu continues to stand trial on corruption and bribery charges, with hearings ongoing amid repeated delays.

Conscription crisis intensifies early election pressure

An ongoing dispute among coalition partners over mandatory military service for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews is further increasing pressure on the government.

The continued exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service has drawn sharp criticism, with opposition parties accusing the government of placing the entire burden of the war on secular reservists.

The high command of the Israel Defense Forces has warned that the reserve forces risk collapse due to the unresolved crisis.

This ongoing friction has fueled calls for the dissolution of the Knesset and the holding of early elections, which are otherwise scheduled for 2026. In an effort to establish a political alternative, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid decided in April to merge their parties.

The Houthis are accelerating preparations for attacks on tankers in the Red Sea—one of the world’s most critical maritime trade corridors, located at the opposite end of the Persian Gulf.

According to a report by the Reuters news agency, representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are operating in Yemen to coordinate a potential blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the primary entry point for vessels into the Red Sea.

A source close to the Houthis reported that the group has finalized its attack preparations by deploying missiles and drones in high-altitude areas near the strait and is currently awaiting orders to launch the operation.

Three sources familiar with the matter stated that the directive to attack would be issued if the US conducts strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, as threatened by Donald Trump.

Two senior Iranian officials and another regional source noted that the Iranian leadership has discussed the plan to block entry and exit points to the Red Sea and has conveyed the relevant instructions to the Houthis.

Blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait in addition to the Strait of Hormuz risks dealing a severe blow to global oil and trade flows. Following previous disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia had redirected approximately 70% of its oil exports via pipelines to its ports on the Red Sea coast.

In the event of a direct conflict with the Houthis, the Riyadh administration could find itself unable to transport oil to Asian countries, which represent its most critical buyers.

Currently, approximately 7% of global energy resources are transported via the Red Sea route.

Four years ago, the Houthis targeted Saudi Arabian territory but subsequently suspended their attacks under a ceasefire agreement.

When the group began targeting civilian vessels in the Red Sea again in 2024, many shipping companies diverted their routes around the southern tip of Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, a shift that lengthened delivery times and increased transportation costs.

Following US bombardments of Houthi positions during the final months of the Joe Biden administration and particularly after Trump’s return to the White House, vessel traffic in the Red Sea had intensified once again.

However, the Houthis, who accused Saudi Arabia on Monday of bombing airports, launched fresh missile strikes against the kingdom’s territory this week. Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at the risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, evaluated the escalating tension:

“An escalation in conflict that spills over into Red Sea export infrastructure and shipping would jeopardize the only major alternative oil export route from the region.”

Two regional sources close to the Saudi government stated that the Riyadh administration takes the threats from Iran and the Houthis extremely seriously and is aware that the Yemeni group’s actions regarding the Red Sea are being taken in close coordination with Iran.

US President Trump, who on Tuesday reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports, had previously threatened to bomb power plants in the country.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Trump has also been considering the option of seizing control of islands along the Strait of Hormuz, including Kharg Island, which hosts the port handling 90% of Iran’s oil and petroleum product exports.