Meta and Google are expected to be the biggest financial beneficiaries of a potential TikTok ban in the US, according to a new analysis by eMarketer. The rise of TikTok and retail giant Amazon has placed significant competitive pressure on Google and Meta, which have dominated more than half of the US advertising market for years.
eMarketer estimates that if TikTok is banned, more than half of the advertising dollars currently spent on the platform in the US will shift to assets owned by Meta and Google. Specifically, Instagram and Facebook are projected to receive 22.1% and 17.1% of TikTok’s reallocated ad spend, respectively, while Google’s YouTube will capture approximately 10.7%.
Other social media platforms are also expected to benefit from the ban. Snapchat, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Reddit, and X (formerly Twitter) are likely to collectively receive around 18.3% of the reallocated TikTok ad spend. Notably, some of these platforms have already begun restructuring their apps to incorporate TikTok-like short video features.
Additionally, affiliated TV companies, publishers, and other digital media companies operating in social, search, and retail advertising spaces are anticipated to capture about 30% of the reallocated ad dollars.
Both Meta and Google appear well-positioned to capitalize on a potential TikTok ban by heavily investing in their own short video products, such as Reels and Shorts. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed last year that Reels alone accounts for over 50% of user time spent on Instagram. Similarly, Google reported that YouTube Shorts attracts more than 2 billion monthly logged-in users.
The likelihood of a TikTok ban has increased following recent Supreme Court arguments, with court observers predicting that the justices will approve the bipartisan legislation. If passed, the ban could take effect as early as January 19.
Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report published on Monday suggested that Chinese authorities are exploring a potential deal to sell TikTok to Elon Musk. However, TikTok has denied these claims.
The future of TikTok’s accessibility in the US now rests with the Supreme Court, which could issue a decision at any time.
