Former CIA analyst Michael DiMino was sworn in on Monday as the US Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East. During his tenure at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank founded with funding from the libertarian Koch brothers, DiMino expressed skepticism about US commitments in the Middle East, including its relationships with partners such as Israel. The think tank describes itself as a “center for realism and restraint.”
The new deputy secretary has urged the Biden administration to “put pressure” on Israel to deliver more aid to Gaza. DiMino also believes that the US does not have “vital or existential” interests in the Middle East and supports an “offshore stabilization” policy for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and Syria. In a February webinar, he stated that Washington’s two primary interests in the region—natural resources and combating the “terrorist” threat—are “exaggerated.”
“We’re really there to counter Iran, and that’s at the behest of the Israelis and the Saudis,” DiMino said of the US military presence in Iraq and Syria.
‘Offshore balancing’: US strategy for adapting to ‘multipolarity’
“Offshore balancing” is an international relations term that views “multipolarity,” where international relations are dominated by several superpowers, as an opportunity rather than a threat. Proponents of this strategy argue that attempts to maintain US hegemony as the world’s sole superpower will lead other states to unite against the US, ultimately reducing its relative power. Instead, the US should adopt a “burden-shifting strategy,” where other nations take responsibility for maintaining regional balances of power and addressing local issues.
In a 2016 article for Foreign Affairs, John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt summarized this concept: “Washington would abandon ambitious efforts to reshape other societies by pursuing an ‘offshore balancing’ strategy and focus on what really matters: preserving US dominance in the Western Hemisphere and countering potential hegemons in Europe, Northeast Asia, and the Persian Gulf. Instead of policing the world, the US would encourage other countries to take the lead in checking rising powers, intervening only when necessary.”
DiMino echoed this sentiment, stating, “I’m certainly in favor of moving closer to offshore stabilization, reducing US security commitments in the region. Withdrawing troops is one way to do that.”
DiMino argues that the ‘aggressor’ is Israel, not Iran
In comments first reported by Jewish Insider, DiMino suggested that Israel has been the more aggressive party in the region, while Iran has been “quite moderate.” Following Iran’s ballistic missile retaliation against Israel in October, he stated that Tel Aviv was “trying to change the facts on the ground as much as they can,” while the Iranians would “try to hold their own.”
In a January 2024 article for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, another Koch-backed think tank, DiMino argued that the US should provide more aid to Gaza and engage diplomatically with the Houthis in Yemen. He wrote, “This would also require increasing diplomatic pressure on the Israeli government to allow more aid into Gaza, a step the Biden administration is unwilling to take.”
In November 2023, DiMino predicted that Hamas would continue to rule in the Gaza Strip in any post-conflict scenario. “It is difficult to imagine a viable alternative to Hamas under Gaza’s status quo, and something similarly radical is likely to grow from its ruins,” he wrote.
At the Pentagon, DiMino will report to Elbridge Colby, Trump’s choice for Secretary of Defense for Policy. Colby, who served in the Defense Department during Trump’s first term, advocates for strengthening Israel while shifting US priorities to the Indo-Pacific region.
Witkoff praises Qatar
In a Wednesday interview with Fox News, Steve Witkoff, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, was asked about a Hamas spokesman’s claim that the Palestinian organization was “ready for dialogue with the United States and ready to deal with America on everything” following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in exchange for hostages. “If it’s true, I think it’s a good thing,” Witkoff replied.
Witkoff, a billionaire property investor and personal friend of Trump, praised Qatar and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani for their role in the negotiations. “Qatar has been extremely helpful,” Witkoff said, adding that Sheikh Mohammed’s “communication skills with Hamas have been indispensable here.”