Diplomacy
NATO plans largest defense spending increase since Cold War

NATO countries have begun working on an agreement for the largest spending increase since the Cold War, with the goal of raising their defense expenditures to 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2032.
According to a Bloomberg report based on diplomats familiar with the matter, this proposal was first brought to the agenda by US President Donald Trump.
While alliance members aim to make progress on this issue before the summit in The Hague in June, the topic will be discussed at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Antalya, Türkiye, on May 14-15.
Currently, none of the 32 member countries, including the US, have reached the 5% target. In fact, eight countries have not even met the current recommended spending level of 2%.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called earlier this month for allies to agree to increase their defense spending to 3.5% of their GDP within the next seven years and to allocate an additional 1.5% for military-related needs.
Rutte stated that the aim of The Hague summit, which will be the first summit after Trump’s potential return to the White House, will be to balance spending within NATO.
According to 2024 data, the US accounts for 64% of the alliance’s total defense spending, while Europe and Canada’s share remained at 36%.
Ministers meeting in Antalya will discuss which expenditures will be included in the 1.5% bracket.
According to diplomats, this category could include items such as military mobility, dual-use goods, and cybersecurity.
However, it was emphasized that the talks are still in their initial stages. It remains uncertain whether this 1.5% portion will cover existing expenditures or require new commitments.
A senior Turkish official stated that even aid to Ukraine could be included in this category.
The main target of 3.5% is based on NATO’s new and ambitious defense plans. It has been learned that the alliance has already distributed documents to member governments containing detailed and top-secret lists of weapons and other capabilities.
These lists will be discussed by defense ministers in Brussels and confirmed at the summit in The Hague in June.
Rutte’s proposal also includes regular and strict monitoring of the steps taken to achieve the new targets.
A senior European diplomat said that achieving such a sharp increase in defense spending within the foreseen period would be a “major challenge.”
The same diplomat added that many members see these efforts as necessary to “send a clear message” to Russia.
Currently, the country closest to the proposed new spending target is Poland. Poland, which allocates 4.1% of its GDP to defense, plans to increase this ratio to 4.7% in 2025.
Poland is followed by the US with 3.7% and Estonia with 3.4%. Some alliance members, such as Italy and Spain, have recently announced that they have reached the 2% of GDP level.
According to sources, the remaining countries are expected to reach the same level by The Hague summit.
In addition to this spending issue, The Hague summit will also address topics such as increasing industrial production and reforming NATO’s internal governance to improve its overall efficiency.
Diplomacy
Iranian foreign minister travels to Moscow for Putin talks after US strikes

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin following US attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran.
Araghchi warned that the aggression by the US and Israel will have serious consequences not only for the Middle East but for the entire world.
Scheduled to meet with President Putin on Monday, Araghchi stated upon his arrival in Moscow that the US attack calls the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) into question and will have negative implications for international security.
“The US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has cast doubt on the NPT, shaken the non-proliferation regime, and will have adverse consequences for international security,” Araghchi remarked. “This is a concern now being voiced by many countries.”
On June 22, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed to Sputnik that Araghchi had arrived in Moscow for talks with the Russian administration.
‘Silence on aggression will have consequences’
In a phone call with his French counterpart, Jean-Noël Barrot, Araghchi issued a warning to the international community. “The silence and inaction of the international community in the face of this aggression will have far-reaching consequences for all nations,” the Iranian minister said.
Araghchi emphasized that the actions of the US violate all norms of international law, including the United Nations (UN) Charter.
He asserted that the attacks by Israel and the US can only be described as “aggression,” while the Islamic Republic is acting within the framework of legitimate self-defense.
US attacks and international reactions
Early on Sunday, the US announced it had struck three Iranian nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan. Following the attack, US President Donald Trump stated that Tehran “must agree to end this war, or it will face much more serious consequences.” While Trump later claimed the nuclear facilities were completely destroyed, Iranian military officials declared the US attacks were entirely ineffective and threatened a harsh response.
The US strikes drew widespread international condemnation. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the attacks as a dangerous escalation and a threat to global peace. Russia strongly condemned the strikes as a grave violation of international law, the UN Charter, and UN Security Council resolutions, calling on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to provide an impartial response.
Cooperation with Russia against common threats
Before his visit to Moscow, Araghchi stated that Iran and Russia share common concerns and adversaries.
“We appreciate the Russian Federation’s stance in condemning the attack in the strongest terms,” Araghchi posted on Telegram, noting that the special circumstances in the region necessitate a closer relationship between the two countries.
“We have always had common concerns, common worries, and common enemies with Russia,” the minister added. “We have always shared common beliefs and held close consultations to counter mutual challenges and threats. This is precisely what will be done in the meeting with the Russian President on Monday.”
Iran denies that its nuclear program has a military dimension. On June 18, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that the agency has not seen any credible evidence that Iran has an active nuclear weapons program.
According to a CNN report on June 17, citing sources familiar with the matter, US intelligence assessments have reached a similar conclusion, indicating that Iran is not actively pursuing nuclear weapons.
Diplomacy
Citigroup warns oil could hit $90 if Strait of Hormuz is closed

According to Citigroup, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause Brent crude oil prices to soar to as high as $90 per barrel. However, the company also argued that a prolonged shutdown of this critical waterway is unlikely.
Analysts, including Anthony Yuen and Eric Lee, referenced the bank’s current optimistic scenario, stating, “The closure of the strait could lead to a sharp increase in prices. However, we believe the process would be brief, not lasting several months, as all efforts would be focused on reopening it.”
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily oil production, including from leading OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq, passes through it.
Citigroup estimates that a disruption could interrupt the flow of about 3 million barrels of oil per day for several months.
According to Citigroup, any interruption in Iran’s crude oil exports might have less of an impact on prices than anticipated. The bank noted that the country’s shipments have already decreased, with Chinese refineries purchasing less.
Brent futures are currently trading at around $77 per barrel.
Diplomacy
NATO chief introduces ‘DOGE’-style reforms ahead of Trump summit

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has begun to reduce employment within the alliance as part of a major restructuring effort.
Rutte, who took office as NATO chief last October, plans to eliminate two divisions at the Brussels headquarters and cut dozens of positions.
“He is basically DOGE-ing NATO,” said an alliance official, referring to the radical downsizing initiative in the US federal government led by Elon Musk earlier this year.
This previously unreported restructuring comes ahead of a critical summit in The Hague, which begins on Tuesday and will be attended by US President Donald Trump, amid widespread concerns that the NATO-skeptic president might one day withdraw from the military alliance.
The reforms are taking place in a complex geopolitical and defense environment, with wars shaking Ukraine and the Middle East, and warnings from the Trump administration that the US may take a backseat in Europe’s security in the future.
When Rutte took over from Jens Stoltenberg after his ten-year tenure last year, he announced in his first speech that there was “work to be done” to improve NATO. “My task is to ensure that our alliance continues to adapt to a more complex world,” he said.
The former Dutch prime minister wasted no time in restructuring the alliance’s bureaucracy.
In recent months, he has held two internal meetings with his staff, announcing a series of changes, including reducing NATO’s international staff divisions from eight to six.
The divisions to be eliminated are the Public Diplomacy Division, which serves as NATO’s press service, and the Executive Management Division, the alliance’s human resources department.
The functions of these divisions will largely be taken over by other departments. However, the assistant secretaries general, who are division heads appointed by the secretary general after consulting with member countries, will no longer continue in their roles, a directly knowledgeable official confirmed to POLITICO.
The Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy, Marie-Doha Besancenot of France, left her post in March and has not been replaced. The head of the Executive Management Division, Carlo Borghini of Italy, will also be leaving his position.
Another official told POLITICO that dozens of positions will be eliminated as part of the restructuring, but added that the cuts do not “seem very high” and that new staff will be hired.
“This is something that happens when a new secretary general comes in,” a former senior NATO official told POLITICO about Rutte’s plans to restructure the alliance.
The former senior official said Rutte’s reform is not as reckless as Musk’s infamous Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, which resulted in the dismissal of American federal employees with almost no warning and the shutdown of US agencies.
“This is being done by insiders who really understand the priorities, the existing structures, and the processes. That’s why it’s a much more long-term and deliberate process than DOGE,” the official said.
NATO is headquartered in Brussels and employs approximately 4,000 people, including about 1,500 international staff for whom Rutte is responsible.
Most are temporary workers or “temporary staff”—typically younger, junior personnel on short-term, six-month contracts. Two current officials told POLITICO there has been a distinct shift toward reducing the number of temporary positions and making more roles permanent.
“It’s hard to ensure consistency if you go from temporary job to temporary job,” said the former senior NATO official, adding that discussions about high turnover and reducing reliance on short-term staff began before Rutte’s tenure.
“They are incredibly talented and dedicated people, and I hope that because of their experience and the fact that they already have security clearance, they will have the chance to apply for suitable contract positions,” the former official added.
Speaking on behalf of the alliance, a senior NATO official said regarding the staff cuts, “Secretary General Rutte is committed to an effective and efficient NATO,” and “he has initiated a restructuring process to optimize the operations of NATO headquarters.”
“The restructuring process, which has also taken into account the views of the staff and has been approved by the allies, is ongoing,” the official added.
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