NATO plans largest defense spending increase since Cold War

NATO countries have begun working on an agreement for the largest spending increase since the Cold War, with the goal of raising their defense expenditures to 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2032.

According to a Bloomberg report based on diplomats familiar with the matter, this proposal was first brought to the agenda by US President Donald Trump.

While alliance members aim to make progress on this issue before the summit in The Hague in June, the topic will be discussed at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Antalya, Türkiye, on May 14-15.

Currently, none of the 32 member countries, including the US, have reached the 5% target. In fact, eight countries have not even met the current recommended spending level of 2%.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called earlier this month for allies to agree to increase their defense spending to 3.5% of their GDP within the next seven years and to allocate an additional 1.5% for military-related needs.

Rutte stated that the aim of The Hague summit, which will be the first summit after Trump’s potential return to the White House, will be to balance spending within NATO.

According to 2024 data, the US accounts for 64% of the alliance’s total defense spending, while Europe and Canada’s share remained at 36%.

Ministers meeting in Antalya will discuss which expenditures will be included in the 1.5% bracket.

According to diplomats, this category could include items such as military mobility, dual-use goods, and cybersecurity.

However, it was emphasized that the talks are still in their initial stages. It remains uncertain whether this 1.5% portion will cover existing expenditures or require new commitments.

A senior Turkish official stated that even aid to Ukraine could be included in this category.

The main target of 3.5% is based on NATO’s new and ambitious defense plans. It has been learned that the alliance has already distributed documents to member governments containing detailed and top-secret lists of weapons and other capabilities.

These lists will be discussed by defense ministers in Brussels and confirmed at the summit in The Hague in June.

Rutte’s proposal also includes regular and strict monitoring of the steps taken to achieve the new targets.

A senior European diplomat said that achieving such a sharp increase in defense spending within the foreseen period would be a “major challenge.”

The same diplomat added that many members see these efforts as necessary to “send a clear message” to Russia.

Currently, the country closest to the proposed new spending target is Poland. Poland, which allocates 4.1% of its GDP to defense, plans to increase this ratio to 4.7% in 2025.

Poland is followed by the US with 3.7% and Estonia with 3.4%. Some alliance members, such as Italy and Spain, have recently announced that they have reached the 2% of GDP level.

According to sources, the remaining countries are expected to reach the same level by The Hague summit.

In addition to this spending issue, The Hague summit will also address topics such as increasing industrial production and reforming NATO’s internal governance to improve its overall efficiency.