NATO is preparing a five-year military aid package worth up to $100 billion to protect Ukraine from the “winds of political change” that could lead to Donald Trump’s second term in office.
The so-called ‘Ukraine mission’ proposal, to be discussed by NATO foreign ministers on Wednesday, was put forward by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
According to five alliance diplomats who briefed the Financial Times (FT) on the plan, it would coordinate an estimated $100 billion in assistance pledged by the military alliance’s 32 members.
According to people familiar with Stoltenberg’s remarks, he presented the proposal as a means of ‘protecting the mechanism against the winds of political change’.
Ramstein group could come under NATO control
If the proposal is approved, control of the US-led Ramstein arms support group would also pass to the alliance, allowing it to manage the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine for the first time since the start of the war.
Stoltenberg reportedly wants to reach an agreement before NATO leaders meet in Washington in July.
“This is crossing the Rubicon,” one diplomat told the FT. NATO will have a role in coordinating lethal support for Ukraine. I see a consensus emerging and I think by the time we get on the plane to Washington it will have happened,” one diplomat told the FT.
Another official told POLITICO that another proposal was to give NATO a more formal seat at the table within the Ukraine group, but that it would not be under NATO control. The goal of the US side is to strengthen the relationship between NATO and Ukraine for long-term support, the official said.
Support for Kiev ‘to be secured’ in case of Trump
The mission proposal comes as the Joe Biden administration struggles to win congressional approval for a $60 billion bilateral military aid package for Ukraine ahead of November’s presidential election, which Republican nominee Donald Trump has publicly opposed. Many allies see the impasse as a harbinger of how US policy towards Kiev will change under a Trump presidency.
Diplomats said the US share of the $100 billion fund would be significantly less than the bilateral aid package under consideration. As debate continues over the structure of the funding, some are calling for the same split used to fund NATO’s common budget, which would require the United States to provide just over $16 billion.
“$100 billion over the next five years to support the future Ukrainian armed forces,” the diplomat said, adding that NATO’s common budget coefficients could be used to calculate individual shares of total spending. “This solves the problem of burden sharing,” he said.
NATO foreign ministers to discuss plan
The plan is seen as a way to secure long-term funding ahead of Trump’s possible election and to give Kiev a tangible outcome from the summit, rather than a path to NATO membership that many alliance members see as impossible.
“Foreign ministers will discuss the best way to make NATO’s support for Ukraine stronger, more predictable and more sustainable,” a NATO official said, adding that discussions were expected to continue ahead of the July summit.
The bulk of Western arms supplies to Ukraine are managed by the US-led Ramstein Group, formally known as the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, which meets regularly to discuss how best to coordinate bilateral deliveries.
Two of the diplomats warned that the proposal would need the support of all 32 members and that there could be months of negotiations during which parts of the proposal could be withdrawn.
One person familiar with the matter described Stoltenberg’s proposal as “fairly new” and said allies wanted more information from the NATO chief. The person said there had been discussions about NATO becoming more involved in the Ramstein process, but no decision had been taken.
Hungary and some other countries could again put obstacles in the way
Meanwhile, questions remain, such as whether existing bilateral aid will be included in the $100 billion.
Some resistance is expected from countries such as Hungary, which opposes supplying arms to Ukraine and is wary of any move that would give NATO a direct role in the conflict, or even imply one.
Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, said: “We continue to work with our friends in Europe and Canada to ensure continued support [for Ukraine]. That is the focus of NATO headquarters. I don’t see anybody taking their foot off the gas. I see countries coming up with new ideas every week and I expect that to be the focus of the ministerial meeting that starts tomorrow,” Smith said.
