European NATO members are considering increasing the alliance’s defense spending target from 2% to 3% of GDP at next year’s annual summit in June. The move coincides with Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, adding urgency to the discussions.
According to sources familiar with the preliminary talks, the proposal would place significant pressure on already strained national budgets, raising concerns across several European capitals. The current target of 2 %has been met by 23 of NATO’s 32 member states this year, compared to just six members achieving the benchmark in 2018. However, seven European countries, including Italy and Spain, still fall short of the 2% goal adopted a decade ago.
Trump’s insistence on increased European contributions to NATO and the growing recognition that current spending levels are insufficient to support Ukraine or deter Russia have pushed European leaders to reassess their defense commitments. Talks that began last week during a meeting of alliance foreign ministers suggest an interim target of 2.5% in the short term and 3% by 2030, according to insiders.
Mark Rutte, NATO’s Secretary General, emphasized the need for higher spending targets. While declining to disclose specific figures, Rutte stated, “When you look at the capability targets and the existing gaps, it’s very clear that 2% is not sufficient.” He expressed hope that the new goals could be formalized at the upcoming summit in the Netherlands, despite financial challenges faced by European nations.
The alliance’s non-U.S. members have collectively increased their defense budgets by approximately $100 billion over the past two years. Nevertheless, raising spending to 3% will be a significant challenge for many European economies, including the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.
The UK’s current defense expenditure stands at £60 billion, or 2.3% of GDP, with a commitment to increase this to 2.5%. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has indicated that a strategic defense review will outline a roadmap for achieving this target. However, defense analysts caution that even this level of spending may be inadequate for modernizing the UK military and meeting NATO’s updated requirements.
Italy, spending 1.49%, faces scrutiny under the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure for exceeding budgetary rules. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government aims to reach the current 2% target by 2028. However, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto warned that Trump’s return to office could increase pressure to exceed this target, potentially reaching 2.5% or even 3%.
Spain remains at the bottom of NATO’s defense spending rankings, allocating just 1.28% of GDP to defense. Despite this, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez highlighted Spain’s contributions to NATO missions and its focus on allocating 20% of defense spending to research and development, exceeding alliance benchmarks in this area.
The United States—currently spending 3.4% of its GDP on defense—views increased European contributions as essential to maintaining the alliance’s readiness and burden-sharing. A German official commented, “A commitment to 3% would send a strong signal to the U.S. and Trump, showcasing Europe’s dedication to collective security.” Germany, which met its 2% target for the first time this year, faces similar challenges in increasing spending further.
