India is on the brink of hosting the prestigious annual G20 Leaders’ Summit this weekend. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, this event represents a golden opportunity to amplify its global influence. In this backdrop, Modi is skillfully harnessing the economic forum as a conduit for advancing both foreign policy imperatives and domestic concerns. The primary challenge confronting New Delhi lies in Ukraine and its quest to guide the divided consortium towards reconciliation amidst burgeoning geopolitical tensions.
Under Modi’s stewardship, India is ardently striving to demonstrate its capacity to shine on the grand global stage. A year at the helm of the G20 chairmanship has undeniably bolstered this aspiration. Just this week, Indian Information Minister Anurag Thakur proudly proclaimed that the nation had played host to more than 200 meetings across over 60 cities since assuming leadership from Indonesia last year.
India, a nation whose population has reportedly eclipsed that of China, is poised to act as a bridge, bridging the affluent economies with the burgeoning global south. Viewing the G20 as an optimal platform for this role, New Delhi has, this year, catapulted some of the most pressing concerns of the global south – food insecurity, climate change, and debt – to the pinnacle of the summit’s agenda. In a show of dedication, New Delhi hosted the Global South’s Voice Summit back in January, unifying perspectives from diverse governments and advocating for the inclusion of the African Union in the G20.
Simultaneously, New Delhi, recognizing the G20 presidency as a means to divert attention from its own domestic issues, made efforts to bring a sense of normalcy to the region. In May, it hosted a G20 tourism summit in the disputed Kashmir region. Regrettably, these endeavors did little to overshadow the ethnic violence that has plagued India’s northeastern state of Manipur.
The true measure of New Delhi’s G20 presidency, slated to conclude in December, hinges on the outcome of this impending summit and whether it culminates in a collective statement from its member states.
Convincing all G20 members to affix their signatures to a joint statement is bound to be a Herculean task for India. The nation is intricately engaged in managing relations with formidable counterparts like the United States and Russia, pursuing a delicate policy of equilibrium. France, for one, has declared its unwillingness to endorse any document at the summit that fails to condemn Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia has asserted its refusal to ratify any such document. The absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the summit further underscores the precarious nature of achieving consensus. Historically, the G20 meetings held under India’s leadership have failed to yield unanimous agreements.
Another looming uncertainty is whether the simmering rivalry between the United States and China will cast a shadow over the summit. Speaking about the implications of the tension between India and China on the summit, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan remarked, “It hinges on China. If China chooses, it possesses the option to play the role of a disruptor.”
Furthermore, the territorial discord between India and China remains unresolved. India had recently lodged a protest against China on August 29 for depicting the disputed border region of Arunachal Pradesh state as part of its territory. The Chinese government, in response, dismissed this action as a ‘routine exercise’ and urged India to exercise restraint in its interpretation.
India’s paramount objective for the summit is to forge a joint communiqué that harmonizes around less contentious topics. These include championing the inclusion of the African Union, pledging to fortify global food security, and advocating for the dissemination of clean energy technologies. India may strategically employ the qualifier ‘most members’ to highlight areas of disagreement, akin to last year’s communiqué in Bali, Indonesia.
Any failure to attain these objectives would undoubtedly be a source of consternation for Modi, who has invested considerable political capital in India’s G20 presidency.
