The Lebanese Parliament elected Joseph Aoun as the new president. Since the term of former Lebanese president Michel Aoun expired in October 2022, no candidate had been agreed upon in parliament. Notably, the election of Michel Aoun also took more than two years.
Joseph Aoun, an army commander and member of the Free Patriotic Party, was once allied with former president Michel Aoun and his son-in-law, former foreign minister Jibran Bassil. However, he later became an independent political figure. Initially, his candidacy was rejected by Lebanon’s most influential Christian politicians, Jibran Bassil and Samir Geagea. Despite their reluctance, both eventually supported his candidacy. Notably, Jaca had ambitions to become president himself. According to the Lebanese National Accord, the president must be a Maronite Christian.
Political environment during the election process
This election underscores Lebanon’s complex and often contradictory political landscape. The new president, closely aligned with the United States and Washington’s strategic interests, benefitted significantly from international backing. Aoun’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, where he met with the defense minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s brother, further strengthened his position. Divided Sunni factions also supported Aoun, largely in line with Saudi Arabia’s preferences.
International actors such as the United States, France, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia played crucial roles in the electoral process. This external involvement highlighted Lebanon’s enduring struggle for independence in its internal affairs. Ironically, parties identifying as ‘anti-Hezbollah’ celebrated this foreign intervention as a victory against Hezbollah, despite their rhetoric against external interference.
Suleiman Franjieh, leader of the Maronite Marada Movement, backed by Hezbollah and its ally Amal Movement, withdrew his candidacy in favor of Joseph Aoun to build broader consensus. Franjieh’s decision, made a day before the election, rendered Aoun’s victory a foregone conclusion.
Hezbollah’s resistance and strategic vision
Despite political attacks and betrayals, Hezbollah remains a formidable force in Lebanon. The group has consistently demonstrated its ability to adapt to adverse circumstances and execute complex political strategies.
As Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem recently emphasized, Hezbollah’s approach extends beyond military resistance, encompassing a broader strategic vision shaped by evolving circumstances. Recognizing shifting power dynamics in the Middle East, Hezbollah continues to act in ways it perceives as protecting Lebanon’s interests.
Important questions for the future of Lebanon
Will the new president, Joseph Aoun, succumb to the influence of the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and their allies—key players in his election—or will he prioritize Lebanon’s sovereignty and internal stability?
Since the general elections in May 2022, Lebanon has yet to form a new government. The pre-election prime minister and cabinet remain in place on an interim basis. Aoun must now appoint a prime minister and assemble a government within Lebanon’s fractured political framework. This process is likely to face delays as factions vie for control over key ministries, potentially extending the tenure of the current interim government.
A crucial decision for the Lebanese Army is appointing Joseph Aoun’s successor as Chief of the General Staff. This choice will significantly impact internal security and the delicate balance between Western interests and Hezbollah. As the 60-day ceasefire with Israel nears its end, concerns are mounting over the Lebanese Army’s ability to maintain security alongside UNIFIL troops south of the Litani River. Per the National Accord, the Chief of General Staff must also be a Maronite Christian.
Why Joseph Aoun could be elected now?
Why did Aoun, whose election had been stalled for two years, finally secure the presidency? The primary reason lies in Hezbollah’s waning influence within Lebanon, the decline of the Assad regime, and the broader weakening of the resistance axis. A secondary factor is Lebanon’s dire need for international funding and support for reconstruction, particularly in southern regions, the Beqaa Valley, and Beirut, which were devastated by the recent war.
Had Hezbollah’s candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, or any other contender aligned with Hezbollah been elected, international aid would have been unlikely. Riyadh and Washington viewed this election as leverage. Without a president acceptable to the international community, financial support for Lebanon’s reconstruction was improbable. Additionally, with Assad’s regime weakened, Lebanon has devolved into an internally fragmented, institutionally bankrupt, and diplomatically isolated nation—a significant concern for regional powers.
Lebanon’s new president assumes office amidst deep political divisions and significant foreign interference. While his election signals a shift in the nation’s leadership dynamics, challenges remain. Forming a government, balancing domestic and international interests, and maintaining internal stability will test Joseph Aoun’s leadership. Ultimately, Lebanon’s future hinges on its leaders’ ability to transcend factionalism and prioritize national sovereignty and unity.
