The recent dialogue between Ankara and Tel Aviv aimed at normalizing relations has brought along the decision to bring bilateral relations back to a diplomatic level.
Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has announced that they have decided to appoint an ambassador to Tel Aviv within the framework of the mutual maximization of diplomatic relations between Turkiye and Israel.
Stressing that a dialogue process with Tel Aviv started with the election of Isaac Herzog as President, Çavuşoğlu said, “The process continued with Herzog’s visit to Turkiye and then my visit to Israel, the visit of the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid to Ankara.”
Announcing the signing of a bilateral cooperation agreement in the field of aviation, Çavuşoğlu said that a Mixed Economic Commission meeting would be held at the beginning of September. Israel also announced in early July that it had decided to reopen its Economic and Trade Office, which it had closed at the time of the deterioration of political relations.
Stressing that Turkiye will not give up the Palestinian cause, Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu said, “We will continue to defend the rights of Palestine, Jerusalem and Gaza”.
President Erdogan had also previously made a statement about the resuming relations: “It will allow us to help our Palestinian brothers.”
The emphases on regional matters drew attention
“Israel and Turkiye will return to full normalization of relations, including reinstating ambassadors and consuls-general,” Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said in a statement.
Lapid’s argument that this step would contribute not only to deepening bilateral ties, but to strengthening regional stability drew attention.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog also emphasized the improvement of economic relations and mutual tourism in his Turkish tweet by tagging his counterpart Erdogan on his social media account.
Statement of support from the US
The US Embassy has posted a statement of support for the new period in Ankara-Tel Aviv relations. The following message was shared on the social media account of the Embassy:
“U.S. Embassy Ankara welcomes the news that Turkiye and Israel will exchange ambassadors as part of the normalization of relations between the two countries.”
From ‘One minute’ to normalization
In a session at the World Economic Forum held in Davos in early 2009, then Prime Minister Erdogan reacted to the words of former Israeli President Shimon Peres defending the attacks on Gaza with “One minute” outburst and left the session saying, “Davos is over for me.”
Although this outbreak caused a crisis in bilateral relations, the main breakdown occurred after Israel’s Mavi Marmara attack in 2010. After Israeli commandos raided the Mavi Marmara ship, seeking to break the blockade in Gaza, and killed 9 Turkish citizens, relations were minimized, and diplomatic representation was reduced to the level of charge d ‘affaires.
In 2016, steps were taken to normalize relations and mutual ambassadors were appointed. However, in 2018, Turkiye recalled its ambassador for consultations and asked Israel to take a similar step after Israel opened fire on Palestinians protesting the United States Embassy in Jerusalem, killing 60 people.
The dialogue between the new Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who took office on July 7, 2021, and President Erdogan gave the signals of normalization. Afterwards, during Herzog’s visit to Turkiye on March 9 and 10, steps to improve cooperation were discussed. Herzog became the first Israeli leader to visit Turkiye since 2008.
During a visit to Ankara on June 23 by then Israeli Foreign Minister, current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a statement was made regarding the upgrading of relations to ambassador level, which have been at the level of charge d ‘affaires since 2018. Çavuşoğlu and Lapid announced their decision to start working on mutually reappointing of ambassadors at a press conference.
There are some elements in the ups and downs of relationship between two countries that are perceived as both crises and opportunities:
The Iran factor
Israel has redeveloped its relations with the Gulf countries, trying to establish a line against Iran, which it regards as an ‘existential threat’ in the region. At a time when Iran is close to a nuclear deal, Israel is looking for new actors to expand its frontline in the region.
Tel Aviv, which seeks to include Turkiye in its strategy to balance Iran in the region, recently claimed that the Iranian secret service is planning attacks against Israeli tourists and officials in Turkiye. Following the assassination of Colonel Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, a senior commander of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the possibility of a “revenge attack” by Iran against Israeli citizens in Turkiye was pointed out.
Turkiye, on the other hand, cooperated with Tel Aviv by conducting operations against some Iranian citizens in line with the intelligence from Israel. Upon this, Israeli President Herzog personally called President Erdogan and thanked him.
While the two countries’ cooperation in the field of intelligence was thought to unsettle Iran, the emphasis on ‘regional stability’ in the leaders’ statements drew attention. It is evident that the cooperation that Turkiye and Israel will develop in the field of military and intelligence will serve Tel Aviv’s strategy of balancing Iran in the region. Therefore, it can be asserted that the Iran factor has an important place in Israel’s desire to get closer to Turkiye.
The Israeli press also reported that both countries “see Iran’s presence in Syria as a threat to their stability” and that they “want to strengthen coordination in Syria.”
Hamas agenda
One of the security issues between Turkiye and Israel is Hamas, one of the Palestinian resistance movements. While Israel designates Hamas as a “terrorist group”, Turkiye denies this.
Last year, Israel announced it required to see Ankara take some steps against the presence of Hamas leaders in Turkiye before starting negotiations on a settlement. Thereupon, the Israeli press claimed that “people identified with Hamas have been deported from Turkiye.” Palestinians living in Turkiye denied the allegations.
It is not certain whether Hamas agenda has come up in the latest talks or whether Israel has made any demands.
The elections factor
On the other hand, elections are approaching in Israel, which have turned into a crisis and will be held for the fifth time in four years.
As Israel’s longest-running prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is being discussed for re-election as Prime Minister on November 1, Lapid, who will race in the election as Prime Minister, is trying to prove his effectiveness and leadership during this period. Therefore, Lapid may consider rapprochement with Turkiye important for his own political future.
Eastern Mediterranean tension
Despite some time of normalization talks between the two countries, tensions are rising in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel has deepened its cooperation with Greece in recent years, while in the Eastern Mediterranean, it frequently holds trilateral and bilateral exercises with Greece and the United States.
The last of these exercises took place on July 13. The two air forces reportedly conducted training exercises “on coping with various scenarios, advancing both countries’ readiness to fight in multiple scenarios and airborne refueling Greek fighter jets.”
In addition, just before his visit to Turkiye, the Israeli President visited Nicosia on March 2 and met with the leader of the Greek Cypriot administration, Nicos Anastasiades, and pledged to him that “rapprochement with Turkiye would not be at the expense of disrupting its strategic relations with Cyprus.”
Israel is also known to be uncomfortable with Turkiye’s presence in Libya and to see it as a threat to its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The gas project…
On the other hand, the Israeli press reported that Erdogan was “in an effort to develop a gas pipeline that would deliver Israeli natural gas directly to Turkiye in order to ease Turkiye’s dependence on Russian gas” and “could aim to use restored relations as a stepping stone.”
In addition to bringing gas from Israel and using it in its domestic market, the project of exporting Israeli gas to Europe via Turkiye has been on the agenda for a long time. Although this is an option for Europe, which is experiencing an energy crisis due to sanctions against Russia after the Ukrainian crisis, it is stated that Israeli gas alone will not be enough. There are also various political and economic uncertainties on the subject.
Israel’s plan to build a pipeline to Southern Cyprus and Greece effectively collapsed after the United States withdrew its support for the East-Med Pipeline Project last year. Whether Tel Aviv will engage in this project with Turkiye at the expense of confronting its partners in the Eastern Mediterranean remains a question mark.
