The Philippines has withdrawn a coastguard vessel from Sabina Shoal in the contested South China Sea, prompting discussions on China’s next steps in the region. The BRP Teresa Magbanua was recalled over the weekend following a five-month deployment, citing deteriorating weather conditions, depleted supplies, and the need to evacuate medical personnel. China refers to the shoal as Xianbin Reef.
The vessel returned to Puerto Princesa in Palawan on Sunday, where it received a warm welcome. However, four of the 63 crew members required medical treatment for dehydration.
Analysts suggest the sudden withdrawal may facilitate the rotation and resupply of troops stationed aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded World War II-era U.S. warship that the Philippines uses as a military outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, another contested area in the South China Sea.
China’s Global Times characterized the withdrawal as a result of “China’s successful intervention,” claiming that the Philippines had no choice but to pull back. The withdrawal reportedly occurred just three days after a meeting of the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultative Mechanism on the South China Sea. However, the Philippines did not notify China in advance of its decision to withdraw the vessel.
Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales, expressed concerns that the Philippines should have deployed a replacement ship before recalling the Teresa Magbanua. “The initiative is now in China’s hands,” Thayer told This Week in Asia. He warned that China might justify actions to prevent the Philippines from replacing the vessel under the guise of self-defense.
Thayer added that China could use the incident to support its territorial claims in the region, pointing out that approximately 70 Chinese military, coastguard, and militia vessels are stationed near the disputed shoal. He suggested that China would likely oppose any future attempts by the Philippines to deploy replacement vessels.
According to Thayer, China’s objective is not to occupy Sabina Shoal but to prevent the Philippines from establishing a permanent presence in the area. The Teresa Magbanua had been stationed at Sabina Shoal, located 146 kilometers (90 miles) from Palawan and about 1,200 kilometers from China’s nearest significant landmass, further escalating tensions between Beijing and Manila.
Lucas Bersamin, chairman of the Philippines’ National Maritime Council, explained on Sunday that withdrawing the vessel would allow for necessary repairs and provide the crew with much-needed rest.
“We have lost nothing. We have not abandoned anything,” Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela reassured during a press conference on Monday.
