Poland’s indefinite border closure with Belarus severs a €25 billion China-EU trade route

Poland has decided to keep its border with Belarus closed indefinitely, disrupting a €25 billion annual trade artery between China and the EU.

Warsaw closed its border with Belarus on Friday to better monitor the large-scale Russian-Belarusian “Zapad” military exercise.

Announced as a deterrent measure, the decision now appears to be indefinite, following the government’s statement that “traffic will resume when the border becomes completely secure,” citing “concern for the safety of Polish citizens.”

The Polish government stated that the “logic of security” has replaced the “logic of trade,” but the closure impacts a trade route that carries 90% of the rail freight between China and the EU.

On this route, cargo volume between China and the EU increased by 10.6% in 2024, while the value of goods rose by approximately 85% to €25.07 billion. This corridor, which accounts for 3.7% of trade compared to 2.1% a year ago, is vital for e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein.

Polish companies may also be affected. The state-controlled PKP Cargo said that short-term delays are manageable but warned that a prolonged closure would divert trade southward through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, and the Black Sea to Southern Europe or Turkey.

The closure occurred just one week after the company launched its first Warsaw-China freight train, carrying goods from several European countries. This symbolic journey was intended to solidify Poland’s role as a hub and enhance PKP Cargo’s international profile.

“The complete closure of the border is a very significant problem not only for transport and logistics but for the entire economy,” said Artur Kalisiak, director of strategic projects at the Polish Association of Transport and Logistics Industry.

Approximately 10,000 Belarusian drivers working for Polish shipping companies are also stranded, unable to return to their jobs in Poland or go back home.

All cargo, including time-sensitive shipments like pharmaceuticals and food, is currently blocked. Regarding alternatives, Kalisiak noted, “It is possible to try going through Lithuania or Latvia, but this, of course, requires more time and money. Moreover, there is no guarantee that these borders will remain open.”

The Belarusian opposition outlet Belsat reported on attempts to create new supply chains, describing a solution where a loaded truck travels to terminals in Kaunas, Lithuania; Łódź, Poland; or Duisburg, Germany, where the cargo is transferred and then enters Belarus through Lithuanian railway crossings.

“This is a very difficult situation. The government says it is monitoring the situation and will reopen the border when it is secure. That is all we know… which means, from a business perspective, we know nothing,” Kalisiak concluded.

“The decision to close the Belarusian border will remain in effect until further notice. Other steps regarding the issue have not yet been determined,” Polish government spokesperson Adam Szłapka told reporters on Wednesday.

With no clear timeline for the border’s reopening, businesses are uncertain whether they will receive compensation.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs stated, “Losses will be assessed once it is clear how long the border will remain closed. At that point, the ministries can prepare an assessment that will form the basis for the government’s decisions on possible state support for individual industry sectors.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi flew to Warsaw on Monday to meet with his Polish counterpart, Radosław Sikorski.

“During the talks, it was made very clear that the logic of security has replaced the logic of trade, which is also beneficial for us in this situation. Minister Sikorski also expressed this very clearly,” said Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Paweł Wroński.

Wroński added that the Chinese side did not make a direct request for the border to be reopened.

Before the ministers met, Beijing had expressed its hope that Poland would “take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth operation of [the rail link on the Belarus border] and the stability of international industry and supply chains,” emphasizing that the China-Europe Railway Express is a “flagship project” in China’s cooperation with Poland and the EU.

However, China is not the only player in this game. “There is also the United States, and we have a very close relationship with them,” said Piotr Krawczyk, former head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency. “I am sure that Washington is very pleased with the closure of the routes, at least temporarily, because they are pressuring the European Union to impose additional tariffs on China regarding Russia’s oil and gas exports to China.”