Europe
Poland’s indefinite border closure with Belarus severs a €25 billion China-EU trade route
Poland has decided to keep its border with Belarus closed indefinitely, disrupting a €25 billion annual trade artery between China and the EU.
Warsaw closed its border with Belarus on Friday to better monitor the large-scale Russian-Belarusian “Zapad” military exercise.
Announced as a deterrent measure, the decision now appears to be indefinite, following the government’s statement that “traffic will resume when the border becomes completely secure,” citing “concern for the safety of Polish citizens.”
The Polish government stated that the “logic of security” has replaced the “logic of trade,” but the closure impacts a trade route that carries 90% of the rail freight between China and the EU.
On this route, cargo volume between China and the EU increased by 10.6% in 2024, while the value of goods rose by approximately 85% to €25.07 billion. This corridor, which accounts for 3.7% of trade compared to 2.1% a year ago, is vital for e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein.
Polish companies may also be affected. The state-controlled PKP Cargo said that short-term delays are manageable but warned that a prolonged closure would divert trade southward through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, and the Black Sea to Southern Europe or Turkey.
The closure occurred just one week after the company launched its first Warsaw-China freight train, carrying goods from several European countries. This symbolic journey was intended to solidify Poland’s role as a hub and enhance PKP Cargo’s international profile.
“The complete closure of the border is a very significant problem not only for transport and logistics but for the entire economy,” said Artur Kalisiak, director of strategic projects at the Polish Association of Transport and Logistics Industry.
Approximately 10,000 Belarusian drivers working for Polish shipping companies are also stranded, unable to return to their jobs in Poland or go back home.
All cargo, including time-sensitive shipments like pharmaceuticals and food, is currently blocked. Regarding alternatives, Kalisiak noted, “It is possible to try going through Lithuania or Latvia, but this, of course, requires more time and money. Moreover, there is no guarantee that these borders will remain open.”
The Belarusian opposition outlet Belsat reported on attempts to create new supply chains, describing a solution where a loaded truck travels to terminals in Kaunas, Lithuania; Łódź, Poland; or Duisburg, Germany, where the cargo is transferred and then enters Belarus through Lithuanian railway crossings.
“This is a very difficult situation. The government says it is monitoring the situation and will reopen the border when it is secure. That is all we know… which means, from a business perspective, we know nothing,” Kalisiak concluded.
“The decision to close the Belarusian border will remain in effect until further notice. Other steps regarding the issue have not yet been determined,” Polish government spokesperson Adam Szłapka told reporters on Wednesday.
With no clear timeline for the border’s reopening, businesses are uncertain whether they will receive compensation.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs stated, “Losses will be assessed once it is clear how long the border will remain closed. At that point, the ministries can prepare an assessment that will form the basis for the government’s decisions on possible state support for individual industry sectors.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi flew to Warsaw on Monday to meet with his Polish counterpart, Radosław Sikorski.
“During the talks, it was made very clear that the logic of security has replaced the logic of trade, which is also beneficial for us in this situation. Minister Sikorski also expressed this very clearly,” said Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Paweł Wroński.
Wroński added that the Chinese side did not make a direct request for the border to be reopened.
Before the ministers met, Beijing had expressed its hope that Poland would “take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth operation of [the rail link on the Belarus border] and the stability of international industry and supply chains,” emphasizing that the China-Europe Railway Express is a “flagship project” in China’s cooperation with Poland and the EU.
However, China is not the only player in this game. “There is also the United States, and we have a very close relationship with them,” said Piotr Krawczyk, former head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency. “I am sure that Washington is very pleased with the closure of the routes, at least temporarily, because they are pressuring the European Union to impose additional tariffs on China regarding Russia’s oil and gas exports to China.”
Europe
Over 500 former European diplomats urge EU sanctions on Israel
More than 500 former European ministers and diplomats, including four former prime ministers, have called on the European Union to urgently impose sanctions against Israeli settlement policies. Warning that the E1 project would extinguish a two-state solution, the signatories demanded a ban on trade with illegal settlements and binding steps at the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting on 12 October.
More than 500 former European ministers, ambassadors, and senior officials, including four former prime ministers, have called on the European Union (EU) to take urgent measures against the expansion of Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories.
The signatories warned that it is merely a matter of time before the Israeli government announces construction tenders for the first phase of the E1 settlement project, which would bisect the West Bank and eliminate the possibility of a two-state solution.
Sanctions on financial bodies and trade ban demand
Addressing the European Commission, the senior diplomats and politicians demanded that sanctions be proposed without delay against all financial institutions and service providers supporting illegal settlements, above all E1.
The initiative text called for the presentation of legislative proposals that would prevent trade between the EU and these settlements. The signatories also requested the progression of long-stalled drafts stipulating the suspension of trade provisions in the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The initiative stressed that decisions must be taken at the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting on 12 October.
“Time for the EU and member states to act”
Attention was drawn to the requirement that EU bodies and member state governments act in accordance with their clear obligations under the founding treaties of the EU and international law.
The statement noted that internal EU divisions resulting from the stances of Germany, Italy, and other countries blocking the adoption of joint measures must be overcome.
The call for urgent action pointed to ongoing civilian casualties and severe humanitarian conditions in Gaza, accompanied by inadequate aid deliveries and reconstruction activities that have ground to a halt, as well as escalating settler violence, land seizures, and the relentless displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank.
The statement concluded: “The time for the EU and its member states to act is definitely now.”
Europe
Germany expands North Sea military ports and plans new naval base
With the transformation of the port of Bremerhaven into a high-capacity military hub and the prospective establishment of a fifth German naval base in Emden, the federal government is accelerating the militarisation of the German coastline.
According to German Foreign Policy, the logistics infrastructure in Bremerhaven will be modernised and expanded to unload massive volumes of weapons and ammunition as quickly as possible and transport them onward to potential battlefields in Eastern Europe.
This is set out in a memorandum of understanding signed this week between the Ministry of Defence and municipal authorities in Bremen.
The federal government is providing up to 1.35 billion euros for this purpose, while the federal state of Bremen is contributing more than 212 million euros.
Bremen has the highest poverty risk and the highest child poverty rate of any federal state in the country.
The allocation of hundreds of millions of euros to expand military logistics rather than tackle poverty is also supported by senators from the Left Party (Die Linke) who sit in the state government.
Modernisation intensifies in Bremerhaven
Bremerhaven, Germany’s second-largest port in maritime freight handling behind Hamburg and ahead of Wilhelmshaven, is regarded as ideal for handling military cargo.
The port possesses significant capacity for offloading not only containers but also vehicles, alongside heavy-lift areas capable of handling even heavy military hardware such as main battle tanks. Moreover, because it can be accessed without passing through locks, access is substantially easier and faster.
Finally, it has good links to roads and particularly to railways, which is vital for the rapid transport of weapons and ammunition in the event of a crisis or war.
The port’s particular suitability as a military transshipment hub also stems from its history: it has been used by US forces since the end of the Second World War.
During the Cold War, it served as the central transshipment port in the Federal Republic of Germany and was expanded accordingly.
After 1990, it lost its significance for the US; however, with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the US presence increased once more.
US activity escalated initially under exercises such as Defender Europe 2020 and subsequently from 2022 onwards in the context of the war in Ukraine.
As early as 2023, experts noted that Bremerhaven was operating as “an arms hub just like in the old days”.
Ports optimised for military logistics
The federal government is currently working to further increase the port’s military logistics capacity.
For instance, harbor basins will reportedly be dredged, and road and rail connections will be expanded.
Container facilities will be modernised and adapted to carry heavier loads.
This applies to both cranes and storage areas, with plans also in place to expand these storage areas into new zones.
A spokesperson for the port operating company Bremenports was quoted as saying: “The efficient transport of military hardware is no longer limited to tanks alone.”
Today, weapons and ammunition are also delivered in containers, which would need to be rapidly unloaded and forwarded in the event of war.
To ensure this, plans are also being made to build a new railway swing bridge at the Kaiserhafen. According to reports, the existing bridge is described as a “bottleneck” that slows down the movement of military equipment unnecessarily.
In addition, the heavy focus on military logistics demands costly security measures.
For example, not only will new fencing and privacy screens be erected, but drone defence systems will also be installed and cybersecurity measures implemented.
Left Party senators back armaments
The federal government is allocating approximately 1.35 billion euros through 2031 to optimise military logistics in Bremerhaven and, in conjunction with this, adapt Bremen Airport more effectively to the needs of the Bundeswehr.
According to the Mayor of Bremen, Andreas Bovenschulte, this represents the largest grant the German government has ever provided for a project in the federal state of Bremen.
The state of Bremen is contributing an additional 212 million euros to the “Bremerhaven 2031 Deployment Hub” project.
While large sums are being funnelled from Bremen’s state budget into war preparations in this manner, approximately 25.9% of the state’s population was classified as at risk of poverty in 2024, with 28.6% of all children living in poverty.
This makes Bremen the federal state with the highest poverty risk and the highest rate of child poverty.
Approval for funding military logistics in Bremerhaven with hundreds of millions of euros from the state budget also came from two Bremen senators belonging to the Left Party.
The Left Party’s Senator for Economic Affairs and Ports, Kristina Vogt, praised the “pragmatism” of “improving our infrastructure, which is already used for civilian purposes, for military ends” rather than constructing new facilities.
North Sea joins Baltic Sea militarisation
With the expansion of the Bremerhaven military hub, the militarisation of Germany’s coasts is progressing.
Until now, the focal point of Germany’s naval infrastructure has been the Baltic Sea coast. This was partly because during the Cold War, the naval activities of the Federal Republic of Germany were directed against the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact states.
Alongside several training facilities, the German Navy primarily operates three major naval bases here, situated in Eckernfoerde, Kiel, and Rostock-Warnemuende, as well as the Naval Command based in Rostock.
In the North Sea, these are complemented by the naval base in Wilhelmshaven and the Naval Air Command at Nordholz near Cuxhaven.
The Naval Air Command is the third major unit of the German Navy, alongside Flotilla 1 based in Kiel and Flotilla 2 based in Wilhelmshaven.
At present, approximately 16,000 soldiers and 1,800 civilian staff from the Bundeswehr are stationed at the Navy’s main bases and various smaller installations.
As in other branches of the armed forces, the German Navy aims to expand its personnel numbers.
Germany’s fifth naval base to be built
In addition to the four existing naval bases and the Bremerhaven military hub, the federal government plans shortly to announce the construction of a fifth naval base, also located on the North Sea.
According to reports, Emden has been selected as the site for the base. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Lower Saxony’s State Minister Olaf Lies are scheduled to outline the next steps regarding a potential new naval base there on Monday.
Emden previously hosted a naval base during the Cold War, but the facility was closed in 1997.
According to reports, one argument in Emden’s favour is that it holds the largest unused area among Lower Saxony’s North Sea ports.
Discussions have been ongoing for some time over how to utilise this disused land reasonably, although these debates previously centred on civilian use.
According to the German Navy’s plans, the new naval base will accommodate seven frigates, ten minesweepers, and ten tugs, alongside a four-digit number of Bundeswehr soldiers and civilian personnel.
Europe
European nations unite against US pressure over strategic oil stocks
Five European countries have agreed to respond with “one voice” to mounting pressure from the US government to release their oil reserves.
Three European officials told Politico that France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Ireland, and the European Commission participated in talks to determine how to respond to pressure from Washington to draw down their oil reserves or face a ban on US diesel exports.
Two of these sources stated that all of these countries were placed under covert pressure by the US to run down their oil reserves or face a ban on diesel exports from the US.
According to the sources, these countries, together with the EU executive, agreed on three points: responding to the pressure with a “coordinated voice”, ensuring that “any decision on releasing stocks is brought to the IEA [International Energy Agency] level”, and seeking to “de-escalate tension in talks with the US”.
The Paris-based IEA coordinates energy policy among wealthy countries and oversaw the release of oil reserves earlier this year following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
One of the sources said the objective was to “de-escalate”:
“Being somewhat firm yet positive in communication… When you are facing a hungry lion, you do not necessarily have to play dirty with it.”
The source added that a wider group of countries, some of which have faced pressure from the Trump administration, would discuss how to react at a meeting scheduled for Friday.
Politico previously reported that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright had demanded the release of oil reserves into the market as an alternative to an export ban on which the EU heavily relies.
As a consequence of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, diesel prices in the US are soaring, placing significant pressure on US President Donald Trump to lower prices ahead of critical midterm elections.
The president is not ruling out an export ban, despite fierce opposition from the US oil industry.
Regarding the export ban, Trump said at an Oval Office event: “I am considering it. I speak to [Energy Secretary] Chris [Wright] and [Interior Secretary] Doug [Burgum] about this often. They think it would help diesel prices, but it could also raise the prices of other products.”
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