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While the West breeds crises, Eurasia weaves peace and development, says Prof. Zhang Weiwei

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Editor’s note: Prof. Zhang Weiwei, Director of the China Institute at Fudan University and former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, evaluated the imperatives of a multipolar world and China’s global role as a “civilization-state” at the East-West Forum held in Istanbul on September 25-26. Highlighting China’s distinct framework that integrates ancient history with modern capacity, Prof. Zhang underscored the tangible benefits that meritocracy, public order, and a peace-oriented approach deliver to global stability. In contrast to the Western posture that legitimizes military interventions and polarizes the world, he stated that frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and ASEAN transform Eurasia into an arena of peace and development. Pointing out that Chinese philosophy sets the threshold for resorting to war at the highest level and centers on forging consensus out of conflict, Zhang noted that maximum restraint is exercised even in border disputes.


Well, I will try to present my view on this whole topic of the world in transition and China as a civilizational state as mentioned in the outline of the program for the conference.

As we all know, I think the world is already multipolar. If you look at the size of the GDP of four BRIC members, it’s already larger than G7; yet the multipolar world order is not yet born.

So that’s something we try to produce and shape, including our foreign East-West Forum here.

Well, here comes to the role of China. China is indeed a unique country and can make important contribution, perhaps already made very important contribution to a new global order, more fair and more just order.

How to define a civilizational state? It is an amalgam of the world’s longest continuous civilization with a super large modern state. I try to summarize this into four supers: Super large population, super large territory, super long history and super rich cultures. All these four supers, each of which is a blend of old and new, Asian and modern.

For instance, if you talk about the large population; yes, China has always been a populous country since ancient times, yet this population is very well educated.

Every year we produce more scientists and engineers than the Western countries combined. Same with this vast territory: It’s our inheritance from history, yet it’s also very modernized, connected with first-rate infrastructure, the best railway system, best highway system and best digital infrastructure. 5G into every village, no exception. Super long history, it’s also a combination of old and new.

If you look at China’s political system, if the Western system is about election, the Chinese system is about selection plus election: selection from the Chinese tradition and election we adapt from the Western tradition.

Same with super rich culture. If we talk about political culture, the most important priority in China is people’s livelihood. First, it’s very much Confucianism: Whatever you do, the state has to deliver to improve people’s livelihood, both in material terms and non-material terms.

An inaccurate analogy—very inaccurate, just for reference—would be something like dozens of Islamic nations or countries today have amalgamated into one nation with a centralized government, with a very modern economy and speaking the same language. Yes, it’s also a highly developed economy, but it’s one nation. Or another inaccurate analogy, which is not politically correct: Like the Roman Empire has continued to this day with all these different countries uniting into one and speaking Latin.

Yet in the case of China, with a very strong philosophical tradition, we treasure peace, peace above all. Most important thing; highly modern, but also from Asian tradition. This will be a kind of nation-state, a civilizational state, as I try to explain to you.

And now we look at the international order; let’s say we try to build a kind of new order much better than the one we have, from unipolarity to multipolarity. First, let’s look at the ideas or philosophies: In what way does China differ from the United States? Vastly different. For instance, if you look at the Chinese political philosophy, it’s never about “divide and rule”, it’s always about “unite and prosper”. Within China we practice this way, outside China in the world we do the same.

“The Chinese case is friend or potential friend”

And in terms of strategic policies for the United States or the Western philosophy in general, it’s “friend or foe”. You’re either a friend or enemy. But the Chinese case is “friend or potential friend”. In other words, you have a much longer view, longer vision as a civilizational state.

And then it’s very different from the trigger-happy United States. If you look at China’s history, China has the highest threshold for the use of force among the major powers. Of course, China has very clear red lines; this is very important. But also this is strongly influenced by Sun Tzu’s famous book The Art of War: The idea is you try to subdue your opponents or enemy without actual fighting.

So you have this philosophy, and then you have this philosophy of friend and potential friend; you can have already avoided so many wars, you can prevent a lot of wars from happening.

This is the way China handles this philosophical part. Of course, the most important thing is humanity: Humanity has won, rather than “on the table or on the menu”. This philosophy China rejects categorically; it’s very much against Chinese conscience.

Now when we talk about a shared future for mankind or one humanity, some people say it’s idealistic: How do you put this into practice, how to make this into something tangible? I was asked by an American scholar in Xiangshan Forum about this question: Why did Chinese leader Xi Jinping present this whole Global Governance Initiative at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization rather than the United Nations, a more serious forum?

I said it’s very, very simple to understand: Because the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the embodiment of these four initiatives Xi Jinping has raised—on development, on security, on civilization, on governance. Exactly four pillars of Shanghai Cooperation; that’s my summary.

Now the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has become the world’s largest regional cooperation organization in terms of population, in terms of landmass and in terms of the results. It’s already larger in GDP than the G7.

Same with ASEAN; if you look at China’s partnership with ASEAN, it’s based on the same four pillars. As a result, China now contributes every year 30% to world economic growth; ASEAN produces roughly 7 to 8%.

With this kind of China-ASEAN cooperation, we contribute to close to 40% of global economic growth. Then you look at this whole Eurasian landmass, from Russia to Central Asia, to China, to Southeast Asia: This huge landmass has been a land of peace and development for the past five decades. It’s so important.

In many ways I say, if China had adopted the Western so-called liberal democracy system, maybe China had already produced a Donald Trump and the Third World War had already occurred. With the Chinese political system, as Professor Jeffrey Sachs said, you have the only adult in the room who can make rational decisions about the world, about China, about global affairs.

And finally, just to make a small comment on this practice: If you look at these regional organizations and what they have achieved as a result, both Central Asia and Southeast Asia were described as a “geopolitical curse” for many decades for understandable reasons—complicated geography, complicated religious traditions, complicated different political systems.

Yet today we can see with very high pride that they are geopolitical bonuses. Central Asia used to be landlocked countries; now they are land-linked. With this kind of positive note, China as a civilizational state has produced both ideas and practices for a possibly better world to come.

If you look at the opinion surveys done by reputable opinion survey agencies, what value Chinese treasure most is public order. That’s a vast country the size of 100 European countries put together; and so China hates the word “anarchic”.

So when we talk about the multipolar world order, if you look at the official language, it’s called a more just, orderly public order.

With China, ASEAN, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it’s already possible to foresee—from a Chinese perspective—a future more benign, more just, and fairer international order to come.

I do want to discuss a bit about this China-Philippines case: If China were behaving like the United States, with China’s military power today we could dismantle the Philippine military force within 24 hours. But we did not do that; in whatever problems, we only use, at maximum, water cannons.

Even in our border clash with India, it’s not at all what other major powers would do; it was only fist fighting between soldiers, and then issues are being resolved gradually. At this moment the China-India leaders met each other and relations became more normalized. I hope the world will do better.

“In the Western so-called universal values, they never mention peace”

And now I want to make one or two points here. One is concerning liberal values.

If you look at Xi Jinping’s Global Governance Initiative, he mentioned what is called the common values—six of them: Peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy, and freedom. What’s most important is that peace is top on the list.

Because when you mention Western so-called universal values, they talk about human rights and democracy, but they never mention peace. In other words, the West reserves the right to use military force on Global South countries.

This is totally wrong; we don’t accept this. Peace is at the top of the list of these common values, and I think it is appreciated by most countries and most peoples in the world. Peace is number one.

And second, each civilization has its own values. But now we have the United Nations Charter, which is the broadest common denominator we can share.

When China says we should reform this current international order, we mean we should return to the United Nations Charter, which is the post-World War II arrangement that most countries accept.

With this “rules-based order”, it’s not the United Nations Charter; it’s the so-called liberal values dictated by the United States and the European countries—lieutenants of the United States—imposed on others.

Look at the Arab Spring: Millions died, hundreds of millions lost their homes and became homeless, and yet they don’t feel guilty. “We can do whatever we want because of this liberal order we promote.” We reject that categorically.

I was with Russian friends talking about the origin of the Ukrainian crisis; of course we think there is a problem with NATO’s eastward expansion. Five rounds of expansion.

I said: If you had stopped after four rounds, this crisis could have been avoided. As far as China is concerned, I don’t know why Russia tolerated five rounds of expansion; China would not even allow a single expansion into Asia.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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