Diplomacy
East-West Forum in Istanbul highlights irreversible shift to multipolarity
As the centre of gravity in world politics shifts, Istanbul has become a focal meeting point for debates on the emerging global order. Leading diplomats, academics, security experts, and former military officials from a wide geography extending from Washington to Beijing, Moscow to Tehran, Berlin to Cairo, and New Delhi to Rome gathered at the East-West Forum. Bringing together participants from 30 countries, the core message of the forum was clear: the Western-centric unipolar order is unravelling, and multipolarity has turned into an irreversible reality.
Held on 26 September at the Akatlar Cultural Centre, the East-West Forum, hosted by Harici Media in cooperation with the Berlin-based European Transcontinental Initiative (ETI), brought together prominent figures from different continents and across a wide range of political traditions in Istanbul. Attendees from Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and North America debated the historic shift in the global balance of power, the changing character of warfare, and the new security architecture over two days.
The predominant assessment at the forum, which featured experts from 30 countries, was that the world is rapidly moving away from the Western-centric order established after the Cold War, and that new power centres have become permanent fixtures of the global system. Participants stressed that proxy wars have lowered the threshold for direct conflict between great powers, that the risk of nuclear escalation has returned to the centre of global politics, and that artificial intelligence-enabled warfare technologies are blurring the boundaries of armed conflict.
Consequently, the East-West Forum emerged not merely as a conference discussing current crises, but with the ambition of serving as a new international platform where different centres directly shape the principles and balances of power underpinning the changing world order.
Opening the conference, Harici Media Editor-in-Chief Tunc Akkoc said the forum aims to bring disparate political and intellectual traditions together on a foundation of permanent dialogue.
“Today, together, we are making a new start,” Akkoc said. “We are establishing a platform where individuals with diverse perspectives can meet and converse. We hope this inaugural gathering evolves into a tradition that grows stronger with every passing year.”

Guerot: Crisis on continent stems from unaccepted weakness
Delivering the opening address on behalf of the European Transcontinental Initiative (ETI), of which she is a co-founder, Prof. Dr. Ulrike Guerot emphasised that the global critical community must raise its voice at a juncture when the world stands on the brink of a third world war.
Invoking Immanuel Kant’s thesis on “Perpetual Peace” and the principle that “all human beings are born free and equal,” enshrined in the 1789 Declaration of the Rights of Man and the United Nations Charter, Guerot stated that what is lacking in the 21st century is not resources or energy, but diplomacy, wisdom, political will, and love.
Contending that the social and peaceful European ideals of the Jacques Delors, Francois Mitterrand, and Helmut Kohl era have been distorted today, Guerot noted that she voices the sentiments of Europe’s silent majority, who do not want war with Russia and reject being sacrificed to US geostrategic interests.
Guerot, a German national, recalled the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines, observing that the German public feels deep unease after its critical infrastructure was destroyed by a former ally while its own government remained silent.
Referencing the French poet Raymond Queneau, Guerot encapsulated the nihilism into which Europe has fallen:
“Europe is dangerous; yet it is dangerous not because of its strength, but because of a weakness it refuses to accept. It prefers to escalate war rather than confront its own political failure and guilt. As the European Transcontinental Initiative, we have two foundational mottos: a Europe beyond the European Union, and a Europe for a multipolar world. In this balance, Turkiye plays a pivotal role.”
Following her opening address, Guerot announced that the forum will convene regularly in Istanbul during the third week of September each year.

Following a address of thanks by Tunc Akkoc, the forum proceeded to its first plenary session, titled “The Transforming World: Multipolarity and the End of the Liberal Order.” Serving as moderator, Guerot opened the panel with a quotation from the newly published book “The End of the Liberal Order” by US academic Prof. Pilkington.
Guerot presented the following observation for discussion among the participants:
“Today, liberalism as an ideology is interpreted along American lines. That is, it is essentially defined through a specific variant of liberalism constructed over time in the US and developed particularly through that country’s ascendance in the post-Second World War era.”
Zhang: Five centuries of Western dominance have ended
Prof. Zhang Weiwei, Director of the China Institute at Fudan University and former interpreter to China’s historic leader Deng Xiaoping, asserted that the multipolar structure has been confirmed by economic data.
Noting that the aggregate economic size of the BRICS nations in gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity has surpassed that of the G7 nations, Zhang emphasised that this indicator proves the conclusion of five hundred years of Western dominance.
“In our intellectual framework, an actor is either a friend or a potential friend,” Zhang said. “The Western dichotomy of ‘you are either a friend or a foe,’ which drives the world toward catastrophe, has no place in our worldview. Chinese diplomacy shuns military coercion; it takes harmony over hegemony and equality over imposition as its basis.”

Diesen: By ceding sovereignty, Europe became a logistics base
Prof. Dr. Glenn Diesen of the University of South-Eastern Norway said that the undivided Pan-European security architecture promised by the 1990 Charter of Paris was deliberately sacrificed for the sake of NATO’s eastward expansion. Stating that this policy excluding Russia dragged the continent into a spiral of conflict, Diesen noted that the principle of the indivisibility of security was disregarded.
Observing that European capitals surrendered their strategic responsibilities to Washington, Diesen assessed: “This approach, which destroyed its own energy pipelines, endorsed sanctions that crippled its industry, and rejected diplomacy, ceased to make Europe a global actor and turned it into a transatlantic logistics base.”
Lieven: Rules-based order is a veil for US hegemony
Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Programme at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the phrase “rules-based international order,” constantly repeated by Western governments, serves as a diplomatic veil concealing US hegemony. Lieven stated that the rules are set by Washington itself and breached by Washington whenever its interests dictate, adding that this arbitrariness erodes sovereign equality.
Prof. Jagannath Panda, Head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, explained that the rise of Asian powers has shaken the representative legitimacy of the United Nations Security Council.
Noting that the exclusion of a power like India, with a population exceeding 1.5 billion, from permanent decision-making processes undermines the legitimacy of the entire system, Panda remarked that New Delhi retains its strategic autonomy and that Asian nations possess the diplomatic maturity to resolve their border disputes through direct negotiations.
Unal: Independent actors like Ankara are safety valves
Moderating the forum’s second session, titled “Escalation Out of Control: Preventing a Catastrophic World War, Peacefully Institutionalising a New Order Together,” Baskent University faculty member and Director of the Centre for New World Studies Prof. Dr. Hasan Unal stressed that the liquidation of diplomacy has brought global peace to a perilous threshold.
Stating that the polarisation between the West, the Global South, and BRICS has created uncontrolled escalation, Unal said middle powers like Turkiye play a vital role in maintaining equilibrium at a time when arms control treaties have lapsed and artificial intelligence-enabled systems are being deployed.

AI algorithms accelerate the risk of nuclear confrontation
Zhou Bo, Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a retired colonel, stated that unmanned systems and artificial intelligence algorithms have reduced decision-making windows to seconds, driving the risk of military miscalculation to a maximum and lowering the nuclear threshold.
Zhou said major powers must immediately agree on rules governing modern military technologies, warning that failure to do so will result in a dystopian catastrophe.
Retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel and Defence Priorities fellow Daniel Davis stated that the security bureaucracy in Washington has succumbed to the fallacy of viewing military power as the sole solution to every problem.
Davis noted that proxy wars stretching from Ukraine to the Middle East have brought nuclear powers close to direct confrontation, pointing out that a dynamic similar to the blind diplomatic deadlock preceding the First World War is unfolding.
Davis emphasised that the US defence industry expands its budget by continuously manufacturing new enemies, that unrestrained interventionism harms the American public, and that there must be a return to the sovereign boundaries set by the UN Charter.
European Parliament Member and former United Nations Assistant Secretary-General Michael von der Schulenburg said the European Union is being drawn into a dangerous trap of military escalation, with voices advocating peace negotiations being marginalised.
Stating that the Brussels bureaucracy is militarising the continent while ignoring the popular will, Schulenburg remarked that the principles of the UN Charter must be reinforced to serve as the main pillar of a multipolar world.
Shenderyuk-Zhidkov: Sanctions turned Russia towards the East
Alexander Shenderyuk-Zhidkov, representative of the Kaliningrad Region in the Russian Federation Council and First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Budget and Financial Markets, stated that attempts to isolate Russia from the global economy have failed, with trade routes and financial payment channels redirecting toward Asia and the Global South.
Ali Asghar Soltanieh, former representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency and President of the Vienna International International Institute for Middle East Studies, emphasised that foreign military bases in the Middle East represent the primary source of instability. Stating that regional security cannot be constructed via foreign intervention, Soltanieh noted that on the foundation of diplomatic dialogue between Tehran and Riyadh, infrastructure projects such as a Mecca Joint Defence Agreement and shared water desalination facilities could be realised.
Roger Koeppel, publisher of the Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche and a former parliamentarian, criticised Switzerland’s participation in unilateral sanctions as detrimental to its historic neutrality, arguing that peace can be safeguarded through neutral mediation mechanisms rather than arms shipments.

Europe severed from its philosophical roots and sovereignty
Researcher Isabelle Casel moderated the third session, titled “Europe Beyond the EU and Its Philosophical Foundations: Atlanticism, Eurasia and Strategic Autonomy.” Philosopher of history Dr. Hauke Ritz said European civilisation has drifted from the ideals of humanism and the Enlightenment, surrendering to the absolute dominance of markets and technology.
Ritz noted that uncontrolled artificial intelligence and genetic engineering can be curbed only if Eastern wisdom converges with European humanism.
Economist Thomas Fazi argued that the European Union has dismantled the mixed-economy model based on the welfare state to serve capital dominance, with institutions centred in Brussels and Frankfurt transforming into oligarchic mechanisms that override democratic will.
Fazi stated that genuine strategic autonomy will become possible only when the state reclaims its economic sovereignty.
Prof. Dr. Dragana Mitrovic of the University of Belgrade emphasised that East Asia has become the focal point of global manufacturing and trade, with China’s Belt and Road Initiative linking to Europe via the Balkans, underscoring that Brussels must dismantle ideological barriers.
French analyst Georges Kuzmanovic said France has drifted from its Gaullist tradition of independence, becoming entirely reliant on US logistics in the defence domain.
He stated that Europe, having surrendered its data and communications infrastructure to US tech corporations, cannot make autonomous decisions without establishing digital sovereignty. Discussant Walter Komarek added that Eurasian energy pipelines and railway networks represent tangible guarantees of peace.

Shehada: Gaza heralds the rule-free warfare of the future
The final session of the forum, moderated by Dr. Pascal Lottaz, addressed regional proxy wars.
Gaza-born researcher and human rights advocate Muhammad Shehada stated that the destruction in the region exceeds the scope of a localised conflict, remarking: “The genocide in Gaza is not an isolated event. We serve as the canary in the coal mine, warning the entire world of who will come next and how future wars will be waged.”
Pointing out that artificial intelligence-driven targeting and surveillance systems in Gaza target the entire civilian population, Shehada said the Israeli military tracks cellular signals of young children to eliminate whole families.
Addressing double standards among Western governments, Shehada recalled a senior European official telling him: “In the morning we send food and bandages to the people of Gaza; in the afternoon we supply bombs to the Israelis to drop on civilian residential areas.”
Emeritus Professor Richard Sakwa of the University of Kent noted that contemporary crises stem from the unresolved contradictions of 1945, observing that the Second Cold War is far more dangerous because it lacks ideological clarity and rules.
Andrew Day, senior editor at The American Conservative, said the American public does not endorse the Washington elite’s endless military interventions, particularly war policies directed at Iran.
Prof. Abdullah Baabood, Chair at Waseda University, stated that Gulf nations can establish their own indigenous security framework without foreign intervention, adding that normalisation between Tehran and Riyadh constitutes a vital step toward that end.

East-West Forum adopts five core institutional resolutions
Following the conclusion of the forum, participants met at a working breakfast on the morning of 27 September and agreed to transform the initiative into a permanent international network. A five-point action plan was announced to the public:
First, the East-West Forum will convene regularly in Istanbul during the third week of September each year as a permanent council of ideas tracking and documenting the multipolar paradigm shift.
Second, conference proceedings and strategic reports will be compiled annually into books and distributed internationally under the leadership of Germany-based Westend Publishing House.
Third, specialised working groups convening on a quarterly basis will be established across the areas of security architecture, artificial intelligence governance, economic sovereignty, and diplomacy.
Fourth, the “EWF Network” will be launched, encompassing independent intellectuals, experts, and researchers who oppose unipolar approaches and military escalation.
Fifth, an “EWF Business Council” will be founded, bringing together productive sectors, economic actors, and independent commercial initiatives across the multipolar world.


Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
Diplomacy
Trump dismisses US envoy to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle
US President Donald Trump has dismissed Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador in Athens, following serious press reports concerning her conduct.
White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia told reporters during her first briefing that Guilfoyle had been asked to resign.
“She was doing a good job, but we didn’t like what we read in the press,” Trump said. “She was not a member of my family. I think she dated my son a long time ago.”
In a social media post, Guilfoyle stated: “These claims are unfounded, and I will resolutely defend my name, reputation, and integrity.” She added that she was particularly proud of the embassy’s work.
According to Kathimerini, her removal came as no surprise in Washington. Days of successive disclosures and vigorous exploitation of the matter by Democrats had been inflicting political damage on the White House ahead of the sensitive midterm elections.
The US State Department was instructed not to comment, with crisis management transferred entirely to the White House.
Reports indicate that most of the president’s team swiftly favoured Guilfoyle’s dismissal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was reportedly uneasy with the demonstratively warm public welcome she had staged for him.
Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have called for an investigation.
“Her resignation does not absolve her of responsibility,” the lawmakers wrote, adding: “While American families struggled to make ends meet, she used her position as a Trump administration official to enrich herself.”
Chargé d’Affaires Josh Huck will assume ambassadorial duties until a successor is chosen.
Meanwhile, Guilfoyle’s departure is expected to cause delays in agreements between Greece and the US.
These include the so-called “Rubio package”, comprising approximately $4 billion in arms deals finalised only days before the secretary of state’s arrival.
Several procedural steps still remain before the contracts can be signed.
In Athens, opposition parties are demanding answers. Dimitris Mantzos of PASOK called for a detailed briefing on the agreements reached during Rubio’s visit.
Diplomacy
IMF warns global economy is nearing the limits of its resilience
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy’s capacity to withstand fresh shocks is coming under strain.
Worldwide growth has exceeded expectations and maintained stability despite the war in the Middle East and surging oil prices.
However, some policymakers worry that dwindling energy reserves, rising debt burdens, and a growing reliance on the artificial intelligence boom will leave the world increasingly vulnerable.
In a blog post, IMF economic counsellor Silvana Tenreyro wrote: “Without strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding policy buffers, the global economy may soon test the limits of its resilience.”
Tenreyro added:
“While tech-related investments are an important advantage against the energy shock, they concentrate risks, making global growth excessively dependent on a small number of companies, sectors, and economies.”
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has helped offset the economic fallout of the war.
Yet a sharp reversal could leave global GDP 1.1% below the IMF’s baseline forecast by 2028.
US GDP could take an even larger hit of 1.8%.
This scenario assumes that the productivity gains promised by AI fail to materialise, triggering a pullback in investment and a correction in financial markets.
Continued investment in artificial intelligence could also fuel inflation, leading to renewed interest rate increases.
Conversely, a stronger AI investment boom coupled with faster productivity gains could lift global GDP 0.6% above the baseline forecast by 2029.
The IMF largely maintained its global growth projections despite prolonged energy disruptions stemming from the Middle East war.
However, it now expects higher inflation both this year and next year.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from its April forecast, and anticipates 3.4% in 2027, representing a 0.2 percentage point upward revision.
The fund projects that the US economy will expand by 2.3% in both years, marking the fastest growth among G7 economies. The 2027 forecast was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points.
Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.
Driven by the adverse impact of surging energy and food prices, both inflation projections were revised upwards compared with April.
The world had managed the energy shock partly by drawing down oil reserves and rerouting supply sources.
According to the IMF, global oil inventories are declining by approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, elevating the risk of a sharp price spike.
These projections provide the backdrop for global finance officials and central bankers gathering in Bangkok this week for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
The IMF underestimated global growth projections for three consecutive years, raising questions over whether economies have become better at weathering shocks.
-
Europe2 weeks agoLe Pen proposes German-style debt rule to soothe French bond market
-
Russia2 weeks agoUS and Russia hold multi-billion-dollar talks on Lukoil foreign assets
-
Europe2 weeks agoFrance and Germany urge EU market kill switch against trade threats
-
America2 weeks agoUS AI spending needs 9% of GDP by 2032 to justify capital boom
-
Europe2 weeks agoBill to drop NATO membership goal submitted to Ukrainian parliament
-
America2 weeks agoFlavio Bolsonaro leads Lula as Brazil election heads to run-off
-
Europe2 weeks agoOver 500 former European diplomats urge EU sanctions on Israel
-
Europe2 weeks agoMarine Le Pen unveils fiscal programme pledging French budget cuts
